Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakwood, GA

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in north Georgia Monday afternoon into Monday night in advance of a cold front that becomes stationary.

-Temperatures remain above normal.

Our streak of days with above normal temperature continues this afternoon with temperatures again back to the 80s. Despite a more abundant cumulus field amid continued southerly flow, dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the day and into tonight. As an upper level shortwave lifts across the Plains this afternoon and into the Upper Midwest by tonight, an attendant surface cold front will push eastward. This cold front will traverse the Arklatex this evening, reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by Monday morning.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front to our northwest across the Tennessee Valley by Monday morning. The front will then become stationary to the northwest of the CWA by Monday afternoon, though sufficient moisture and instability in advance of the front will lead to increased PoPs in northwest and far north Georgia. Forecast SBCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range will support the likelihood of scattered thunderstorms, though little shear will greatly limit the severe threat. As such, an appreciable severe threat is not expected, though locally gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall would be possible. Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night, mainly north of I- 85. Both daytime and overnight temperatures remain above normal through the period.

RW

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

No significant weather impacts or forecast challenges in the long term period.

Large scale pattern typical for April and May with vigorous westerlies over the midlatitudes, but weak over latitudes south of 30N. SHRA/TSRA expected to move in late Monday ahead of baroclinic zone but stall over north Georgia Tuesday and beyond without any push of cold air behind front and mid level SWly flow still in place. Confidence in this solution of SWly flow aloft continuing and no strong wave (after this first one moving into the MidWest Monday), is above average based on global ensemble guidance. Should see only slight chance of SHRA with isolated TSRA over far north GA Wed through the rest of the week with widespread convection on Saturday possible as a weak wave moves east just to our north.

Ingredients on for strong/severe storms on Tuesday not in sufficient quantity. While Saturday's possible event is 6 days away, parameters also appear insufficient for any significant weather based on the data available.

If there is a story, it would have to be temperatures which will continue 8-12 degs above normal for max temps and 10-15 and min temps. Should approach but likely hit just below daily records.

SNELSON

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Winds will continue to be the main forecast challenge for the TAF period...at least through late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.
Do think winds will pick up out of the SW around 8-9kt after 18Z but until then, they should flip flop around due south. Cigs will be VFR through the period with a couple of mid/high decks. Some cu around 050 possible early this evening and tomorrow afternoon.
SHRA will become more possible after 00Z TUE as a front approaches from the west.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Med confidence wind direction. High confidence remaining elements. NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 64 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 55 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 40 Cartersville 62 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 40 Columbus 62 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 62 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 60 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 59 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 50 Peachtree City 61 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Vidalia 60 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.