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FXUS62 KFFC 110548 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1248 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New 06Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Highlights:

-Showers coming to an end this evening.
-Cold temperatures and gusty winds behind frontal passage this afternoon and evening.
-Snow chances for North Georgia have decreased significantly.

Looking at the remainder of today, the front is current bisecting our area over the ATL metro and is expected to continue moving southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Winds are shifting to the NW behind the front and gusting up to 30 mph, with similar conditions expected for the remainder of the evening.
The precip should start to come to an end as dry air filters in quickly behind the front and drop temperatures into the low 30s for much of the area with upper 20s in far northeast GA. Due to the rainfall moving through much quicker than initially anticipated, the lingering precip will have moved on before temperatures get below freezing thus our snowfall chances for the north GA mountains has decreased. At most flurries are possible but no real accumulation is expected. For tomorrow into tomorrow night expect clear conditions with the max temp topping out in the mid 40s to mid 50s for much of the area.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances (20-40%) return to the forecast for next weekend.

Tuesday through Friday:

The upper level pattern during this period will feature a gradual transition from zonal flow to weak upper level ridging. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure will dominate, resulting in consistent northeast surface wind across Georgia. Combined these conditions suggest dry weather, partly cloudy skies and near average temperatures. The majority of the region can anticipate high temperatures in the 50s through Friday.

Earlier concerns regarding near critical fire weather conditions in the mountains of north Georgia continue to decline. A fairly dry airmass (between 850 and 500 mb) should be in place, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. However the continued easterly flow should allow for gradual modification over the course of the week and limit mixing to some degree. The potential for Fire Danger Statement on Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of north Georgia has fallen to around 15%.

Next Weekend into Early Next Week:

Ensemble guidance (EPS and GEFS) continues to bring the next meaningful shortwave trough through our region during this period.
While forecaster confidence in the occurrence of troughing is high (>90% of ensemble member indicate it), confidence in the timing or intensity of any precipitation associated with it is low. This lower confidence in linked to a large degree of spread amongst the ensemble members when it come to the timing of the trough. The quickest members bring precipitation in as early as Friday evening while the slower ones hold off until Monday. With these concerns in mind our forecast introduces lower end (~20%) rain chances into the forecast Friday and then keeps them at of below 40% through the weekend. Confidence in the timing of any precipitation for next weekend should improve over the next 48 hours as the current system exits and the models get a better grasp on next weekend storm system.

Albright

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

FEW to SCT MVFR cigs at 2000-2500ft psbl thru 15Z for northern TAF sites, otherwise VFR and SKC to prevail. Winds to remain out of the NW thru the TAF pd. Sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts to 25kts are possible thru 08Z before slackening to 8-12kts.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
High confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 29 54 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 31 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 25 52 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 25 54 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 31 57 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 31 52 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 30 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 27 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 27 54 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 34 57 37 60 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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