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FXUS62 KFFC 251803 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 203 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- A wedge front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to northeast Georgia Friday.

- Despite a couple of isolated showers, the majority of the region should be dry Friday.

Through Friday:

A surface high taking up residence over the Northeast will drive a wedge front south through the Carolinas tonight. By Friday morning the wedge front should have moved through the Athens area, and this will set up northeastern Georgia for cooler temperatures Friday afternoon. Afternoon highs in the region should be in the low to mid 70s, which would be 3 to 5 degrees below seasonal averages. The westward progression of the wedge front Friday afternoon is the main driver of uncertainty in the forecast. Some of the CAM guidance pushes the front through the Atlanta metro, with other guidance holding it back to the east. Thus our potential range of high temperatures in the Metro is fairly broad Friday afternoon. Highs could be anywhere between 73 and 81 degrees. We could also end up with a fairly sharp temperature divide (by Georgia standards) if the front sets up over the Metro.

The vast majority of the region should remain dry on Friday. This being said, there are two potential features that could drive some isolated light precipitation over the course of the day. The first will be a weak shortwave tacking through northern Georgia and Tennessee Friday morning. Guidance from the HRRR tosses out 10 to 40% probabilities for precipitation with this wave north of Interstate 20. Forecast soundings from the CAMs indicate a substantial dry layer below 750 mb as this wave moves through. This should hinder the ability of any precipitation to reach the surface and result in the best rain chances (~25%) occurring at higher elevations. As we move into Friday afternoon and evening the driving force for any precipitation should become a weak area of convergence along the leading edge of the wedge front. Forecaster confidence in rain shower activity is low due to expected surface dewpoints near 60 degrees and the potential for high cloud cover to limit instability. Never the less some of the CAMs (particularly the HRRR)
are indicating isolated convective showers between Atlanta and Columbus between 3 PM and 9 PM Friday (~15% chance). If showers do develop they should be brief in nature.

Albright

LONG TERM
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Taking a look at the extended outlook starting Saturday morning. A deep trough continues to dig across the planes with strong ridging out ahead of it, stretching from the Ohio River Valley and East Coast Southward to the Florida Panhandle. This ridging will help to amplify the already strong Bermuda High and spread eastward, undercutting the trough and sending it northward. What this means for the area will be warm to hot conditions with highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s by mid next week.

The dominating feature throught next week will be the Northwest flow pattern we became all too familiar with last summer. Conditions overall should remain mostly dry through Tuesday, when greater moisture (PWATS >1.5") moves into the area. Current model spread remains high due to the complex undercutting high pressure set up, however we will need to keep an eye out for CAPE on Tuesday given the flow pattern, moisture availability, and shortwave energy.
Thunderstorms in this type of set up frequently organize into MCS style features and the limiting factor will be the CAPE. Current ensembles indicate about a 40-60% chance of SFCCAPE >500 J/KG and less than 15% chance SFCCAPE >1000 J/KG. For right now will expect just general scattered thunderstorms across North and Northwest GA.
Wednesday will likely be similar to Tuesday with thunderstorms continuing with the passing upper level shortwave.

SM

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions (ceilings AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) will continue in the region through 09Z Friday. After 09Z Friday a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings (1000-3000 ft AGL) may move in from the northeast, potentially affecting the Atlanta area and KAHN TAFs. Winds will remain light (less than 6 kt) through 12Z Friday. Then the region will experience east winds of 4 to 12 kt.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
High confidence in the wind and visibility forecasts.
Moderate confidence in the ceiling and precipitation forecasts after 09Z Friday.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 55 73 58 78 / 10 10 10 0 Atlanta 59 77 61 79 / 10 10 10 0 Blairsville 50 65 55 71 / 10 30 10 0 Cartersville 55 78 61 80 / 20 10 10 0 Columbus 61 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 0 Gainesville 56 69 60 76 / 10 20 10 0 Macon 58 82 61 83 / 0 10 10 0 Rome 55 79 61 81 / 20 20 10 0 Peachtree City 57 80 61 81 / 10 10 10 0 Vidalia 59 81 62 82 / 0 10 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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