Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:02PM Sunday September 27, 2020 12:22 PM EDT (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:14PMMoonset 1:52AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 917 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..NW winds 5 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the evening, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 917 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will prevail this weekend with light wind. Winds will increase into mid week, as a strong cold front crosses the waters by early Wednesday. Cooler high pressure will follow into late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 271548 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1148 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. After morning fog and mist, a mix of clouds and sun will bring pleasantly mild and fair weather today. Showers will arrive tonight from the SW, bringing mainly light rain amounts to NE SC and SE NC overnight, before ending early Monday. A cold front will cross the coast mid-week, ushering noticeably cooler air into the area late this week and next weekend.

UPDATE. No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. After fog burn-off, agreeably mild conditions today, as a deep layer of dry subsident air holds over the area above the trapped low-level moisture. The moisture to transition into afternoon cumulus of moderate build.

Rain showers arrive tonight, from the feature evident this morning moving across Alabama into Georgia. PWAT plume and moisture uptick, coupled with the short- wave, brings light to moderate showers over NE SC this evening, skirting SE NC around and after midnight, QPF amounts light 0.10-0.25". Monday we await frontal system, sitting entrenched in warm sector. POP reflects isolated to scattered pop up convection ahead of front Monday afternoon, but cloud cover may hold S-based CAPE below 750 Joules and not clear how much convection will be seen Monday, but have painted in scattered coverage values in afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Unsettled conditions will continue for the midweek period as a deep cutoff system moves across the southeast. The flow ahead of this system will be of a deep tropical nature and the moisture will certainly be plentiful. The forcing is a bit challenged but guidance is starting to like some mid to upper level jet dynamics overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. Warm temps will continue through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Expect a dry and cool period as deep troughing persists across the Eastern U.S. There could be one or two glancing chances of showers or more likely sprinkles and or virga via reinforcing short waves riding the long wave trough. Temperature will be a bit below normal for most if not all of the period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon, otherwise VFR through this evening. Tonight, fog will try to form, however there will probably be enough clouds around to keep it MVFR or better. Scattered showers are possible on Monday with MVFR ceilings at times.

Extended Outlook . Patchy fog possible each overnight and dissipating by mid morning. Showers become numerous Tuesday and Wednesday with intermittent IFR possible.

MARINE. Through Monday, much improved compared to recent, seas 2-3 feet, mainly SE waves every 7 seconds, as wind-chop remains minimal this forecast period, and it appears 6-7 second waves will remain dominant through Monday, and not steep since waves amplitude is not large. Rain showers tonight may reduce marine VSBY at times below 4NM. Isolated TSTMs late tonight and early Monday expected, radar updates encouraged. Winds remain light Monday, becoming S ahead of an approaching cold front. No advisories expected this period.

Monday Night Onward Winds will be from the south/southwest for the first couple of days of the short and long term periods of the marine forecast. Speeds will be on the higher end of a 10-15 knot range and may wonder a bit higher from time to time. By late in the period winds will acquire an offshore component and weaken a little. Significant seas will be higher early with a range of 3-5 feet with a brief headline not out of the question Tuesday. By week's end the range drops to 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MAS NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MJC/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi52 min E 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 76°F1015.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi74 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 76°F1016.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi45 min 77°F2 ft
WLON7 12 mi52 min 79°F 71°F1016.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi74 min N 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 78°F1016.5 hPa
41108 42 mi52 min 77°F2 ft
41064 43 mi74 min NNW 1.9 G 7.8 76°F 1016.1 hPa
41159 43 mi26 min 78°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi29 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast78°F66°F67%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5N4SW5NW6W7NW5W5N8N5N3NW4W5N4CalmW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW3N4
1 day agoS10SE8SE5SE4SE44S12CalmSE5E4CalmCalmCalmE4NW8N3NW4NW3NW5NW5NW6NW7N7N6
2 days agoCalm3--SE7SE76SE3S3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4CalmSE9
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:45 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.81.72.53.13.33.12.61.70.80.1-0.2-00.71.62.63.43.943.62.71.70.70

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:38 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.322.73.43.73.63.22.61.91.20.70.61.11.82.73.64.24.44.23.62.81.91.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.