Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:17 PM EDT (17:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:27PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 851 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms. Patchy fog early this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 851 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A stationary front will linger just inland from the coast through the weekend, before finally dissipating as high pressure remains offshore early to mid next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171535
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1135 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Unsettled weather will last into the weekend as a stalled front
weakens along the coast. A slight drying trend on Monday will
give way to an active weather pattern with scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day next week while temperatures remain near
normal.

Update (9:01 am edt) rest of today
Latest model soundings have atmospheric precipitable water
around 2.4 inches, which is very close to the daily MAX based on
climatology from charleston, sc observed sounding analysis.

Wilmington airport (ilm) set a daily precipitation record
yesterday at 3.04 inches, and the synoptic setup with the
stationary frontal boundary has not changed from 24 hours ago.

All that said, the main update this morning to the forecast is
to add the mention the locally heavy rainfall likelihood today.

Heavy rainfall could result in localized minor flooding and
ponding of water across poor drainage and low lying areas.

Near term through Sunday
Latest sfc analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary just west
of the fa and a very disorganized sfc pressure pattern. Not much
change in the pattern today from yesterday... With transient
shortwave energy aloft in conjunction with high low mid-level
moisture profiles leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain.

Best chance again is near the coast as shortwaves pass along
and just off the coast. Maintained mention of localized minor
flooding and ponding of water in the hazardous weather outlook.

Thunderstorms also likely but severe weather is not expected.

Looks to be a gradient in high temps today... Highs only in the
low mid 80s east due to more precip and cloud cover, up to the
upr 80s far western areas. The rain shifts offshore tonight,
with chances for patchy fog increasing inland. Low temps in the
low mid 70s.

Best moisture axis shifts offshore into Sunday, but with the
weak frontal boundary still in the vicinity have chance pops
(30-50%) through the day. QPF amounts will be lower than those
of today. High temps in the upr 80s to lwr 90s most areas.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
Deeper moisture seemingly has to give way to dry air as seen on
water vapor imagery this morning to both the east and west.

Guidance appears to show this although not to the extent
currently. This will keep pops a bit lower Sunday night but
daytime heating and the mixing warrants good chance pops Monday.

Temperatures will be very similar to past days with highs in
the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s with lows well into the
70s. The highs will be highly dependent on the extend of the
moisture.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Deep moisture remains in place for the most part with intervals
of drier air perhaps. There will seemingly be periods of lower
pops but extended panels differ on timing. Long story short some
semblance of pops are in the entire forecast. More amplitude
toward the end of the period along with an approaching front
increase the forcing with the moisture. Really no change in the
temperature forecast.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 18z... Deep moisture in place with convection expected through
much of the forecast period. Brief periods of low visibilities in
the heavy rain, but lasting less than ten minutes for the most part.

Tonight, a tropical low tracks up the coast, with increasing chances
for heavy rain. Ceilings and visibilities will be ifr in many areas.

The low will track northward and winds will swing around to
northwest on the backside of the low. This will probably shut off
the precip at last.

Extended... An active summer period with increased moisture and the
threat for MVFR ifr conditions from afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day. Morning low stratus and fog will produce
MVFR ifr conditions this weekend into next week.

Marine
A stationary frontal boundary remains inland today with SW flow
over the waters. Expect mainly 10-20 kt sustained winds, with
gusts up to 25 kt. With guidance trending up both in terms of
winds and seas, have gone ahead and hoisted a small craft
advisory through tonight. Winds diminish a bit to only 10-15 kt
Sunday. Seas 3-5 ft this weekend, with a few 6 footers out 20
nm possible. Expect a wave direction out of the south, 6-7
second period.

Summer or late summertime pattern remains unchecked through
the work week. This means southeast to southwest winds of 10-15
knots for the most part. An approaching front late in the
period may increase speeds and has the outside chance of leasing
to a synoptic wind shift but guidance remains mixed. Significant
seas will be the standard 2-4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Mck
near term... Mas
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... 43
marine... Mas shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi47 min S 1.9 G 4.1 81°F 83°F1016.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi69 min N 3.9 G 5.8 79°F 83°F1016.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi37 min 83°F3 ft
WLON7 12 mi53 min 80°F 85°F1016.6 hPa
41108 42 mi47 min 84°F5 ft
41064 43 mi69 min WNW 19 G 31 80°F 84°F1017.4 hPa
41159 43 mi17 min 84°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi24 minESE 310.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity81°F77°F88%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW8--S7--3NE6--W7SW6--Calm--CalmCalm--S3SW10
G17
S3--SW4SW4--SE3
1 day agoSE7S5S5N6----S3CalmS4--S6SW4SW5--------S4--------S7SW5
2 days ago6SW10S9W9S10
G17
SW11SW10S7W5W5W8S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmSW9SW84SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Sat -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:11 AM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.500.10.61.42.33.13.43.22.721.10.4-0-00.51.42.43.33.73.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.21.30.60.30.61.42.33.13.63.73.52.92.11.30.60.30.61.42.43.23.84.14

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.