Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:02PM Sunday September 27, 2020 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 1:51AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1238 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
AMZ200 1238 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will prevail this weekend with light wind. Winds will increase into mid week, as a strong cold front crosses the waters by early Wednesday. Cooler high pressure will follow into late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 270514 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 114 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will settle into the area this weekend, bringing warm and dry weather. Showers and storms will be back in the forecast Sunday night to midweek, as as an upper level disturbance moves through, followed by a strong cold front on Wednesday.

UPDATE.

Issued an SPS to address patchy dense fog this morning, a 'Dense Fog Advisory' may be needed a bit later as visibility decreases in many spots.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Expect another night with areas of fog across the area. Continued dry into Sun with light SW flow developing in the aftn and temps reaching the low/mid 80s. Included a slight chance of rain then for Sun night as deep- layer moisture increases, however did not go higher due to a lack of forcing despite some weak shortwave energy moving through the area. Any precip should be light.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/. Front-running shortwave will be exiting to our northeast on Monday taking with it the main forcing for ascent. Just enough weak low level isentropic lift remains ahead of an approaching cold front however to keep a dry forecast. The very low end chance/30-ish POPs inherited have been raised just a bit (will show slightly higher SW than NE in deference to WRF and GFS both showing the WAA precip coming in from the SW). Daytime highs will be just a few degrees above climo but the cloud cover in the WAA regime will keep lows elevated some 10 degrees above climatology.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Very deep trough digging into the lower MS valley on Tuesday. Locally we stay in the fairly benign looking WAA regime with showers and isolated thunderstorms (depending on extent of insolation) becoming more widespread. The ability for the atmosphere to destabilize will become much more relevant Tuesday night into Wednesday as strong dynamics aloft lead to significant mass response in the low levels. Should this largely be Tuesday night then a brief heavy rain squall line with possible embedded bows and spin-ups possible. However should we gravitate towards a slower progression (which is common when the the trough digs so strongly) then more substantial severe weather will be possible on Wednesday. The mid level trough starts to reload Thursday into Friday keeping is in neutral to weakly warm advection locally. The cold front appears to come through on Saturday-probably with little 'weather' due to a lack of prefrontal moisture flux. It's tough to say so far in advance the configuration of the mid level trough driving the cold air and how strong the local CAA winds up. At this time it appears a bit tempered whereas possibilities still include some older runs that show a long fetch discharge of northern Canadian cold air.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Fog will be problematic through 13z, 1/4sm fg at times for portions of the area. Aft 13z, VFR, sct050 with increasing high clouds later in TAF cycle as moisture returns tonight. Light wind this morning, becoming SSW 4-11 kt in afternoon.

Extended Outlook . Patchy fog possible each overnight and dissipating by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected going into early next week.

MARINE. Through Sunday Night: No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A weak pressure gradient continues over the area with a weak frontal boundary stationed well offshore. Just 5-10 kt wind through the period, with a typical onshore direction in the aftn/eve and offshore during the morning hours. Seas of 2-4 ft this aftn/evening slightly drop to 2-3 ft late tonight through Sun night, mainly driven by SE 6-7 second waves.

Monday through Thursday . Light winds and no longer period swell on Monday leaving only a minor wind chop on area waters. Southerly gradient tightens up on Tuesday with the approach of a cold front but not to where headlines appear warranted. That may change Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper system approaches though there is some uncertainty regarding the speed at which this occurs and similarly to the associated cold frontal passage. The latter should be some time either Tuesday night or Wednesday and models may trend towards the latter. FROPA will lead to a veer to a more westerly flow and likely no big surge of cold air/high pressure that can sometimes start always leading to advisories in the transitional seasons. Energy once again entering the upper trough on Thursday appears to be the main reason for a more benign frontal passage.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



UPDATE . MJC NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . Colby MARINE . ILM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi49 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 71°F 75°F1014.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi29 min N 7.8 G 12 70°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi30 min 76°F3 ft
WLON7 17 mi49 min 69°F 71°F1015.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi29 min NNE 9.7 G 14 74°F 78°F1015 hPa
41064 39 mi29 min NE 12 G 16 75°F 1014.2 hPa
41159 39 mi41 min 76°F4 ft
41108 47 mi67 min 76°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi44 minNNW 49.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F90%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N3NW4NW3NW5NW5NW6NW7N7N6CalmW5N4SW5NW6W7NW5W5N8N5N3NW4W5N4
1 day agoN3CalmCalmNE4CalmNE4CalmSE9
G16
S7S7S10SE8SE5SE4SE44S12CalmSE5E4CalmCalmCalmE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3--SE7SE76SE3S3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:54 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.42.12.7332.62.11.610.60.50.81.42.22.93.43.53.32.82.21.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:06 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:04 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:38 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:45 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.81.72.53.13.33.12.61.70.80.1-0.2-00.71.62.63.43.943.62.71.70.70

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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