Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 10:52 AM EST (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 921 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..E winds 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 921 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. Gusty sw winds are expected ahead of a cold front today. The cold front will cross the waters tonight, followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas. This will result in advisory flags. Gradual improvement into the weekend is expected, as the high moves offshore and sw winds return, and wave heights slowly subside.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 101431 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 931 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm weather will continue through today. A cold front early Wednesday will bring rain, followed by cooler air through mid week. Brief clearing and drying Thursday will be followed by a wet Gulf system Friday into Saturday. Dry high pressure will build in Saturday night through Monday.

UPDATE/.

Primary change this morning was to raise 'Small Craft Advisory' flags for all 0-20 nm waters beginning Wednesday. Elsewhere, small adjustments to sky cover, no major alterations, a few record highs will be approached this afternoon, away from the cooling effects of the ocean.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. With relatively strong SSW flow across the area, temperatures have been steady or even risen a couple of degrees overnight. Strong warm advection will continue today ahead of a cold front, which will be approaching the western CWA around or just after sunset. Temperatures will surge well above normal today, with most areas seeing mid 70s, and a few upper 70s likely. Given any well-placed breaks in the cloud cover, the record highs at FLO and ILM may be reached or eclipsed, although current forecast is a degree or two below these values. Records are 78 for ILM (2007) and FLO (2007), and 81 at CRE (1943). Of these, CRE is safest, as water temps will keep it closer to 70 along the coast. Temps will be propped up in the mid 60s ahead of the front Tuesday evening, then fall to the mid/upper 40s after fropa Tuesday night. As surface high pressure begins to build into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, strong cold air advection will caps highs around 50 far west to mid 50s along the coast.

PoPs will increase west of I-95 with the approach of the front late in the day today, with precip spreading across the CWA overnight, and clearing out of the Cape Fear region by mid- morning Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Expect deep layer drying with continued CAA with temps down near freezing by Thurs morning under mainly clear skies. Chilly high pressure holds on through Thursday with temps not even making it to 50 in many spots on Thurs with plenty of sunshine. Cloud cover will be on the increase through Thurs night as warm and moist air begins to overrun the shallow cool air mass in place. The clouds and increase in moisture should keep temps in the mid 30s to around 40. Not expecting any fzn pcp concerns as temps should remain above freezing and pcp should hold off until temps warm.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Shallow cold air will continue to get overrun with warm and moist air heading into Fri. Rain will overspread the Carolinas from the south through the day as isentropic lift increases and shortwave energy reaches into the area. Best lift will come as low approaches from the south late Fri into Fri night. Expect a period of moderate to heavier rain through the evening. May see some decent QPF amounts with this system.

Low tracks rapidly off to the northeast on Saturday with a deep westerly flow developing aloft as shortwave lifts off to the north. Expect drier air to move in but not tapping into cold air this time around. Therefore should see clearing Sat night into Sun with temps above normal with increasing sunshine. Sunday should be a sunny day as dry high pressure extends into the area. Temps should be in the 60s over the weekend with next chc of rain coming late Mon into Tues.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. MVFR/IFR stratus currently across the western parts of our area affecting KFLO and KLBT, with broken cirrus deck across the Carolinas. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by ~16Z, with scattered low clouds inland and bulk of the scattered high clouds exiting to the north. SSW winds at 2 kft will be around 35 kts for the next few hours, but elevated surface winds will keep conditions below LLWS criteria for TAF inclusion. Cold front approaches the area tonight and moves through around midnight. Rain showers expected to move in from the west around 2z, with conditions quickly dropping to MVFR, possibly IFR, for the night into morning. SW winds today quickly veer to northerlies behind the front, between 3z and 8z.

Extended Outlook . Conditions improve to VFR from west to east Wednesday morning/early afternoon. Another round of MVFR is possible Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas.

MARINE. Latest buoys obs indicate the Small Craft Advisory from Cape Fear to Surf City, set to expire at 6 AM, can be cancelled with this forecast package. Cool SST's will prevent much mixing over the waters today ahead of the cold front, so SW winds are expected to remain at or below 15 kt. This warm advection will create an environment favorable for sea fog. Although fog has been added to the forecast, will have to wait until the light of day to determine the extent and if a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed.

The cold front will move off the coast around midnight, followed by strong cold air advection and mixing down of stronger winds. Sustained NW winds of 20 kts are forecast by late tonight, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will be required. Numerous showers will spread across the waters overnight, and can't rule out a rumble of thunder. Precip will shift east of the waters by late morning Wednesday.

High pressure that starts building behind cold front Wednesday will yield a long period of Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas as moderately strong N to NE gradient winds are maintained. The gradient may ease on Friday as a wave of low pressure rides up the coast but the turn to a more onshore wind direction will likely keep advisory-worthy 6 ft seas in the area. A deeper westerly flow will develop on the back end of low pressure as it lifts off to the northeast Saturday. This should help to push highest seas offshore and expect seas to diminish into Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . Michael J NEAR TERM . CRM SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . VAO MARINE . RGZ/CRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi52 min S 12 G 13
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi44 min SSW 12 G 16 61°F 57°F1018.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi42 min 57°F4 ft
WLON7 17 mi52 min 73°F 53°F1018.3 hPa (+0.9)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi44 min WSW 9.7 G 16 67°F 65°F1019.2 hPa
41064 39 mi44 min SW 12 G 18 69°F 65°F1019.1 hPa
41159 39 mi22 min 65°F6 ft
41108 47 mi52 min 57°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi59 minSW 14 G 1910.00 miFair72°F62°F71%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmSW3S9S7S7S4S5S7SW7S8SW9S11SW9S8SW11
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1 day agoN7N7N7N7N9N7N6N5N6N5N4NW5NW4NW6N4NW6N4N3NW3N3CalmCalmE3W4
2 days agoNE14NE10NE10N9N10N9N9NE6NE5NE7NE7NE8NE8NE8N7N8NE7NE10NE10NE9NE8N7NE11N8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:05 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:19 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.81.62.53.13.43.22.82.21.50.80.30.10.30.91.72.42.82.72.41.81.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:49 AM EST     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:04 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:05 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:51 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.61.42.53.44.14.23.931.90.90.2-0.10.10.71.52.333.33.12.41.50.6-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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