Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topsail Beach, NC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 290140 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 940 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will continue to track north into central North Carolina. Weak high pressure and near normal temperatures are then expected through the work week with a small chance of rain each day.

UPDATE
No major changes with the latest update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface low pressure continues to move northward through SE North Carolina. Rain has just about ended but can't rule out some light showers and/or drizzle overnight along with plenty of low clouds and maybe even a bit of fog. Lows tonight should be a bit below normal, mainly mid to upper 50s in SC and lower 60s in NC.

For Monday a mid level closed low will meander across the area and may bring a few showers late. Highs Monday should approach 80 again highly dependent on how the cloud cover plays out.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The upper low responsible for our miserable holiday weekend will continue to spin overhead through Monday night. An ongoing ingest of dry air will prevent widespread shower chances overnight into Tuesday. During the afternoon, surface heating and weak forcing may support some isolated shallow convection. A mix of clouds and sun will bring temperatures closer to normal on Tuesday with most of the area back into the 80s.

Mid level and surface low pressure continues to weaken Tuesday and Tuesday evening as high pressure off the coast of New England strengthens underneath the larger ridge. The building wedge will weakly advect dry and cool air into the western Carolinas, pushing a weak front through the area. Locally we will not expect much of an impact from this air mass other than the weakening of low level lapse rates. Clouds linger overnight with the potential for some patchy fog. Overnight lows in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure maintains quiet weather through the end of the work week with a gradual warm up into the mid 80s. Some diurnal showers or shallow convection are possible during the afternoon, mainly along the coast. By late this week, models continue to hint at an area of low pressure developing across the deep south or Gulf of Mexico. Ensemble spread remains high, especially with the upper low becoming cut off. This may bring some unsettled weather by the weekend, but confidence is low at this time. Outside of a more organized disturbance, diurnal convection and temperatures in the 80s are expected to be the climatological baseline.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Moderate to high confidence for the 00Z TAFs across SE NC and NE SC. Low pressure over SE NC will continue to track north tonight as a mid-level low over the southern Appalachians moves eastward and through the local area Monday. IFR ceilings should generally prevail tonight with likely improvement to MVFR by 18Z-21 Monday and then VFR by 00Z, generally earliest in SC.
The one exception may be KLBT which has the best chance of seeing LIFR ceilings overnight and also some reduced visibilities.

Extended Outlook...Convection should become more scattered in nature early to mid week with a low to moderate potential for sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
Through Tomorrow... Conditions will improve overnight as low pressure over SE NC heads farther north and the winds and seas continue to subside. For Monday the southwest flow acquires more of a westerly flow and drops in magnitude from around 15 knots to around 10 knots. By late Monday seas drop to a narrow range of 2-3 feet.

Monday Night Through Thursday... Weakening southerly flow behind the surface low will back on Tuesday as high pressure off the New England coast builds into the Carolinas. As a weak front drops southward, winds become NE through the remainder of the week. The gradient created by the area of building high pressure will be unimpressive with winds around 10 to as much as 15 knots. Some enhancement is possible along the coastline where a weak sea is likely during the afternoons. Dry air on Wednesday is likely to limit shower activity, but we begin to settle into our summer-diurnal pattern of marine showers/storms overnight with convection near the coast during the afternoon.
Seas generally 2-3 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KILM

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Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina

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