Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:47 AM EST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:36PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 152 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Periods of rain in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 kt, becoming nw. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 152 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. Waves of low pressure along a front will bring rain, wind, and higher waves through Saturday morning. High pressure returns with improving conditions offshore Sunday into Monday. The next chances for unsettled weather is Tuesday with another approaching front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 140540 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Periods of rain will continue through Saturday morning as waves of low pressure moving along a front across the Carolinas. High pressure will build in from the northwest late Saturday through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

UPDATE. Rain is ending across much of northeastern South Carolina. The next wave of rain should arrive between 4-5 AM Saturday morning across the Pee Dee region. The front has been a little slower to move onshore than expected, so winds/temps have been updated. Also have beefed up fog wording a bit until southwest winds kick up late tonight. Reduced wave heights by around one foot based on observations, but stronger winds late should push seas back up toward forecast levels Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A wave of low pressure moving north along a front stalled 30-50 miles off the coast brought heavy rainfall across the area this afternoon. Mesonet gauge totals through 645 PM have reached 1 inch on the south end of Wilmington, near Holden Beach in Brunswick County, and in Conway, SC. Farther inland heavier rain beginning earlier in the day has totaled over two inches in Hartsville and Darlington. A new daily record rainfall of 1.29 inches has already been established in Florence, with a little more on the way before midnight.

Rainfall should largely end across the area by late this evening as our first wave of low pressure moves out to the northeast. Low clouds will persist as the coastal front jumps onshore ahead of the next wave of low pressure currently moving across the Florida Panhandle. This second disturbance should take a more inland route, dragging the front almost as far inland as the I-95 corridor, and leading to a second wave of moderate rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning.

Temperatures are currently in the 40s inland to 50-55 along the coast. This has necessitated a large downward change to tonight's forecast lows by as much as 7 degrees in Georgetown and Kingstree. Temperatures should rise overnight as the front jumps inland, potentially into the 60s along the coast and well into the 50s inland, especially east of I-95.

After the upper level trough base swings across the Cape Fear Region late Saturday afternoon, pressure rises associated with incoming high pressure will bring a break in cloud cover and a return of dry weather.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. In the mid-levels, heights show ridging increasing, but this ridge will be short-lived. At the surface, high-pressure along an axis from northern Florida to southern Minnesota will shift northeast of the area by late Sunday night. No precipitation in the period with no synoptic/mesoscale forcing and limited moistures. High temperatures Sunday will range from near 60 to the lower 60s. Low temperatures lower 40s inland to mid to upper 40s within 10 miles of the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. With the progressive pattern, a trough is present in the mid- levels in the lee of the Rockies on Monday, and by Wednesday the trough will shift to the east coast. The 12 UTC run of the 500 height shows the GFS is slightly faster but the ECMWF and GEFS are in closer agreement. At the surface the GEFS is much faster with the mean low just north of Pittsburgh and the ECMWF ensemble mean surface low near Louisville, Kentucky. Confidence in precipitation timing is a confidence issue.

The ECMWF ensemble 24-hour probabilities of > 0.50" of QPF around 20% to 30%, but > 0.10" probabilities are greater than 80%. The GEFS is a bit higher for > 0.50".

Ahead of the surface front, high temperatures will be in upper 60s Monday and near 70 on Tuesday. The low temperatures, Monday morning are in the lower to middle 40s and rising to the middle to upper 50s Tuesday morning. After the front a cooling trend is established with Highs in the 50s but lows will fall to freezing or just below Wednesday night and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Widespread LIFR stratus over the area early this morning with some MVFR patchy fog as well. Expect the patchy fog to continue until southerly winds develop near daybreak that will scour out remaining low-level fog and stratus after 12Z. Also expect another round of showers at/just after daybreak. Areas along the coast will see much more variable conditions with stratus likely to be the dominant reason for sub-VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook . VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday with a cold front passage. VFR Wednesday.

MARINE. Tonight through Saturday Night:

A wave of low pressure is moving north along a coastal front about 30-50 miles off the Carolina coast. This has led to north and northeast winds and heavy rain across the coastal waters this afternoon. As this wave of low pressure moves away from the area later this evening look for winds and rain to diminish. A second wave of low pressure currently coming our way from the Florida Panhandle should take a more inland track, dragging the front inland across the beaches and veering our wind directions southwesterly. Wind speeds should again increase as this wave passes the area early Saturday morning, reaching at least 20 kt. Rain continues into Saturday afternoon with decreasing thunderstorm threat as front pushes instability further offshore heading into Saturday night. Sea fog with patchy reduced visibility offshore is also a possibility for the next 24 hours. Small craft advisory remains in effect until Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will briefly be over the waters on Sunday into Monday but a cold front from the west will quickly cross the waters late Tuesday night. Winds will approach 25 knots but confidence is low as GEFS is below 50% for winds reaching Small Craft, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly higher. As the front passes east of the coastal waters, winds will slowly diminish by Wednesday. Sea height on Tuesday will increase to 3 to 5 feet but will fall to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . RH UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . TRA/MCK SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . MAS MARINE . MCK/RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi54 min 55°F 53°F1003.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi48 min SSW 5.1 G 6
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi40 min SSW 12 G 19 59°F 56°F1003.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi38 min 56°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi40 min WSW 7.8 G 14 66°F 68°F1003.7 hPa
41108 44 mi48 min 56°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi40 min WSW 3.9 G 7.8 54°F 55°F1005 hPa
41119 46 mi58 min 55°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi55 minW 41.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F97%1003.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE6NE6NE6N4N4N6NE7N8N8NE9NE9NE4N4W8N5NE7NE5NE5NE3NE3CalmCalmW4
1 day agoN6N7N7N9NE9NE10NE14NE13NE14NE11NE12NE12N13NE11NE9NE9NE11NE9NE10NE7NE6NE6N6NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:06 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:16 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:08 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.61.41.10.70.40.1-0.100.61.31.8221.81.51.20.90.50.20.10.20.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:21 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:32 AM EST     4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:14 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:06 PM EST     4.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.71.810.3-0.1-01.12.74.14.84.84.53.832.21.40.70.10.41.52.93.74

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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