Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Hayne, NC

UPDATE
Minimal changes required to forecast. AFD issued to update Watch, Warning, Advisory section and to update Aviation section.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Latest surface analysis shows the old coastal low a few hundred miles offshore of the mid-Atlantic region, which is to say, not that "coastal" anymore. Local effects still being felt, as subsidence has trapped moisture moisture in the lower levels, allowing for a relatively thick layer of clouds in the 2500-4500 ft range to push in across all of southeast NC and most of northeast SC. Dry air aloft has cut off the moisture, meaning that rain didn't have a chance today. This kicks off a dry spell that we'll experience for most of this week.

The aforementioned low pressure will gradually push further ENE into the Atlantic. Drier air behind it will continue to infiltrate the layer, allowing clouds to clear out late this evening into the overnight hours. Lows generally in the mid-to-upper 50s.

Should see more sunshine Thursday, allowing temperatures to warm up into the mid-to-upper 70s. In fact, 80 degrees is possible in parts of the Pee Dee region. Cape Fear region should stick to the mid 70s, and there's actually a world where we don't even get there. Some guidance still keeps the stubborn moisture just offshore, which may push inland at times. This would lead to some more cloud cover along the southeast NC coast, which may keep the high temperatures slightly cooler than expected. Regardless, clouds are not expected to be as thick as what we've seen today.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Highly amplified pattern will persist at the mid levels through the near term period Friday with a cyclonic flow across the eastern Carolinas. Surface high pressure will slowly build in from the northwest and bring the coolest air mass of the season to the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows in the middle 40s at least Friday morning. A little warmer Thursday morning via some wind in the boundary layer.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The highly amplified pattern will relax a bit through the weekend (further indication of a change of seasons as blocking patterns break down more readily) with essentially air mass modification leading to a warming trend. There is also a hint of another system late in the weekend into early next week turning the winds to more southwest. Low pops have been added/continued as well.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Generally VFR with OVC ceilings 3.5k-4.5k ft across the area.
Not expecting MVFR to develop across any of the SC terminals overnight, although OVC/BKN ceilings at CRE/MYR could flirt with 3k ft. Different story for NC terminals. Forecast data suggests enough low level moisture for continuation of BKN/OVC ceilings at both ILM and LBT overnight. Surge of increased low level moisture arrives around 04Z at ILM and closer to 08Z for LBT. If MVFR develops overnight this is when it is likely to happen. A few hours after sunrise, drier air aloft will mix down, breaking up cloud cover with ceilings ranging from SCT to SKC. May see a few gusts to 20kt in the afternoon as somewhat stronger winds aloft surface, but gusts will be infrequent.

Extended Outlook...VFR expected through the remainder of the week.

MARINE
Through Wednesday...NNW winds at 10-15 kts veer slightly to the NNE by midday Wednesday. Gusts up to 20-22 kts come down by Wednesday afternoon. Seas hold steady at 2-4 ft.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Fairly straight forward marine forecast as high pressure slowly builds in from the north/northwest. Winds will maintain a northerly component of mostly 10-15 knots outside of a range of 15-20 knots Thursday.
Significant seas...with the highest values offshore will see a range of 3-5 feet drifting downward in time to 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.