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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 913 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and early morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

AMZ200 913 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure ridging at the surface will maintain northeast winds through Friday, with moisture advection aloft increasing rain chances starting tonight. Cold front forecasted to move across the area late Friday, followed by cool and dry air for the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 050120 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 920 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure prevails through Friday, keeping the area mostly dry with temperatures near normal. Just a slight chance of showers ahead of a cold front Thursday and Friday, mainly near the coast. After the front moves through, this weekend brings the biggest dose of fall seen so far this season. Temperatures start to rebound back towards seasonal norms by the middle of next week.

UPDATE
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this update. Some leftover cumulus remain but are showing a general downtrend in coverage. Higher dewpoints, especially near the coast, will lead to warmer lows than the past few nights and some stratus may move in from the northeast late in the night, mainly affecting SE NC.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will remain in control of conditions for the next several hours. A somewhat disjointed coastal trough will develop by Thursday morning bringing an increase in clouds and a chance of showers. As mentioned the feature isn't the best looking system but guidance is somewhat insistent on at least a few showers developing and or wandering inland. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Moisture continues to increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front. Quiet forecast Thursday night, with almost muggy lows in the mid 60s. Timing of the cold front has slowed down a bit Friday during the daytime, but that doesn't really change anything for the forecast. Mostly cloudy Friday, with highs again hitting the low 80s. Continue to advertise a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, particularly closer to the coast.
Instability is still there, but keeping thunder out of the forecast again, as there just isn't much there, and there's capping above 850mb. Only expecting less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall anyways, as even though moisture increases, there's enough stubborn dry air in the mid- and low-levels for rain to be nearly a non-factor. Whatever showers or drizzle there is, it should die off by sunset.

Friday night, upper trough picks up speed and deepens. This races the cold front through the area during the overnight hours. Moisture starts coming down just a tad. Lows in the low- to-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Gorgeous, nearly perfect weather from here on out (particularly if you love fall like yours truly). Saturday, some cloud cover may remain, due to wrap-around moisture from the parent low pressure to the northeast. This will try to squeeze out a drizzle or two for the northern locales, but I really don't believe in that happening. Too much dry air will be in the area by that point. Isentropic analysis shows the last remaining moisture locked up in the 300-305K layer, but there's no lift to realize it. Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s.

Collect some sticks for a little campfire Saturday night, because the weather will be perfect for it. Skies really clear out at this point, with a consistent breeze out of the northwest. Lows range from the mid 40s in the SC Pee Dee region to around 50 at the coast. Throw on jeans, hoodie, and roast some marshmallows over the fire (campfire safety here: smokeybear.com/en/prevention-how-tos/campfire- safety).

The cool (some might say chilly) trend continues over the next couple of days. Highs struggle to hit 70 Sunday, before finally making it there Monday. Sunday night hits the peak of the cold air advection, with widespread lows in the mid-to-upper 40s.
Temperatures start rebounding through midweek, with highs around 80 possible again by Wednesday. Lows come back around to the mid 50s.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions expected to dominate through the first 24 hrs with a lower-end chance for brief MVFR cig restrictions at ILM and LBT early Thursday morning as low-level moisture continues to increase from the east. Low confidence in the extent of this potential low stratus deck precludes explicit mention of ceilings at this time.

Extended Outlook...Approaching cold front may yield MVFR cig/vis restrictions on Friday morning. Although the cold front should be offshore by early Saturday morning, MVFR cig restrictions may persist through part of the day Saturday before moisture scours out, leaving VFR conditions for Sunday through Monday.

MARINE
Through Thursday...Winds will remain from the northeast throughout the period with speeds at least early on a couple of knots either side of 15 knots. There seems to be a subtle decrease in speeds Thursday but not much. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but an isolated five footer or two across the outer waters wouldn't surprise me.

Thursday Night through Monday...Northeasterly winds at 10-15kts persist for one more day ahead of a cold front. By Friday evening, winds start backing to the north, settling on northwesterly overnight, as the cold front moves through the coastal waters.
After the frontal passage, gradient winds pick up, and gusts up to 20- 23kts possible Saturday and Saturday night. These gusts die off by Sunday. By Monday, winds finally pivot to the WSW at 5-10kts. Seas predominantly 2-4ft through Saturday, before dropping off to 2-3ft Sunday and then 1-2ft by Monday. Main ENE swell at 8-10 seconds becomes more easterly by Friday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 04:36 AM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:01 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wilmington
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Wed -- 01:52 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:17 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:19 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilmington, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Wilmington, NC,