Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Hayne, NC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Stationary front along the coast will continue to bring several more impulses of showers and storms today and into this evening. Isolated flooding remains possible.

- 2) Forecast starts to dry out Sunday as the front finally moves offshore. Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances possible Monday and Tuesday, with the next front due by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Stationary front along the coast will continue to bring several more impulses of showers and storms today and into this evening. Isolated flooding remains possible.

Latest surface analysis shows the lingering frontal boundary basically bisecting the local forecast area from the Pee Dee region to the Cape Fear region. Mesoanalysis shows precipitable water (PWAT) values holding at 2.3-2.4" across the area, indicating a tropical airmass is in place.

Showers and storms have fizzled away over the last several hours, giving way to a lull that will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours. Over the last 24 hours, 1-2 inches of rain have fallen across the area, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches in some isolated spots along the coastline. Indeed, the drought has been winning in this fight so far against the isolated flooding threat. Even for the 2-4 inches that fell across the Wilmington area, several of our staff have commented how there is little ponding on the roads, an indication that soils are soaking up this water. Welcomed news!

Convection will gradually start to fire up again towards the late morning hours, as the front slowly snakes towards the coast again.
We should see a similar pattern to yesterday, where the front interacts with the seabreeze to create a healthy convergence boundary for storms to fire along the coastline by 12-2 PM EDT this afternoon. Shortwave impulses aloft will help to sustain this convection, along with outflow boundaries of the storms themselves.
Heading towards this evening, storms may start to favor the northeast SC coast, before rain chances gradually start to come down after midnight tonight.

Flood Watch remains in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening for all of southeast NC and most of northeast SC, sans Darlington and Marlboro Counties. The last 24 hours have set precedence that flooding will be hard to achieve in this drought, but it's still something that we cannot rule out with more rain on the way today. Most should see an additional 1-2 inches today, with locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Forecast starts to dry out Sunday as the front finally moves offshore. Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances possible Monday and Tuesday, with the next front due by midweek.

The old frontal boundary finally starts to push out into the Atlantic late tonight into Sunday. As a result, rain chances gradually start to come down. Much drier conditions expected through Tuesday, with only a slight chance of showers and storms in the afternoon, resembling a more summer-like pattern. More organized rain chances may come by Wednesday with another frontal system approaching from the Ohio Valley.

Triple digit heat indices also return as early as Monday, though it looks more likely on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Lots of MVFR and potentially LIFR ahead for the 06Z TAF period. A lull in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue through the remainder of the overnight hours. IFR fog is building in over KLBT as we speak, and is expected to reach KFLO by 07Z or so.
After sunrise this morning, looking at the immediate coast to gradually fire up with convection again. Used PROB30 groups to account for passing showers in the late morning hours. High res models continue to indicate that KILM, KCRE, and KMYR will experience the brunt of the convection generally from 16-21Z this afternoon (used TEMPO groups for that part). While KFLO and KLBT shouldn't get as much convection coverage, they may observe the IFR stratus, being they will be on the "cool" side of the front as it slowly snakes to the south and east. Winds generally NE-NW around 5 kt or less across the inland terminals. And for the coastal terminals S-NW 4 to 9 kt.

Extended Forecast...Drier air finally starts to seep in late Saturday night into Sunday, allowing rain chances to decrease. Could see some fog restrictions Sunday morning. VFR conditions to dominate thereafter with periodic flight restrictions from diurnal convection Monday through Wednesday.

MARINE
Saturday through Wednesday...A nearly stationary front and multiple rounds of showers and storms will create havoc with wind direction/speed today and this evening. A lull in the activity over the waters this morning will become more widespread by the early afternoon. Overall, outside of any convection, expect seas to be 3 ft or less through Tuesday, increasing to 3-5 ft by Wednesday. SWly winds will prevail south of the front and away from any storms through this evening. The flow will veer around to a Nly direction late tonight into Sunday with the old front finally south of the area. Typical SWly flow will return to the waters Monday and persist through Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ024-032-033-039- 054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.