Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Hayne, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) After a dry Sunday with above normal temperatures, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase Monday as a cold front moves through the area. A few thunderstorms on Monday may be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...After a dry Sunday with above normal temperatures, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase Monday as a cold front moves through the area. A few thunderstorms on Monday may be strong to severe.

Return flow on Sunday ahead of Monday's cold front will bring above normal temperatures, especially away from the immediate coastal sections. During Monday a deep moist column will be in place as a cold front moves through the area. Currently the Day 3 SPC Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across most of the forecast area. RRQ of H3 jet will be across the Carolinas during the afternoon along with good low-level convergence supports decent UVVs. If better destabilization can occur then the areal coverage of strong storms could be greater. PWATs will drop sharply Monday night into early Tuesday morning leading to a period of drier weather by mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak upper level disturbances moving through the region will continue to favor isolated to widely scattered showers or a storm into Sunday afternoon, with the best chances expected at KMYR and KCRE. Any associated MVFR restrictions should be short- lived, with predominately VFR ceilings expected.

Areas of stratus and/or fog could develop between 06 to 12z Sunday. Confidence is low to medium, with the best chances for sub-VFR restrictions expected at KILM, KMYR, and KCRE, where low-level moisture is higher and could linger through late morning/early afternoon. Winds will remain light and from the SW.

Extended Forecast...A cold front ill bring widespread showers and storms Monday afternoon and Monday night. Dry VFR conditions return Tuesday. Another frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Winds will remain from the SW through the period. Expect sustained winds 10-15 knots, gusting to 15-20 kts at times. Seas generally around 2 feet within 20 NM from shore and near 3 feet out to 60 NM.

Sunday night through Thursday...SWly winds will prevail Sunday night ahead of the next cold front. This front is slated to move across the waters during Monday allowing winds to quickly veer to a N-NEly direction starting in the afternoon/early evening.
Winds behind the front may likely reach Small Craft thresholds supported by ensemble probabilities increased markedly for the Cape Fear waters spreading southward during Sunday evening. A Gale Watch may be needed for the offshore waters, especially if winds continue to trend upward Monday night into Tuesday morning. The ridge axis will shift into the coastal plains Tuesday night allowing winds to diminish. However given the NEly fetch it will take time for seas to subside. Improved maritime conditions are expected Wednesday with the ridge axis overhead.
Another cold front, albeit weaker, may move across the waters during Thursday, but confidence is much lower with the timing.
Seas will be greatest in the NEly fetch in the wake of Monday's cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may become widespread during Monday/Monday evening as the front moves through.

CLIMATE
The rain gauge at the Florence, SC ASOS (KFLO) clogged during Thursday's rainfall event, only measuring approximately one- quarter of the actual rain that fell. Surrounding mesonet and NWS coop stations recorded accurate totals and the geographically nearest one, 0.98 inches, was selected to use for the Florence climate record for Thursday May 7.

Technicians have not been able to visit the site to unclog the gauge, so it's possible rain that falls this weekend into Monday may not be measured properly.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.