Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hampstead, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday September 16, 2021 7:31 AM EDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 1:03AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 606 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of tstms this morning. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 606 Am Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A tropical disturbance several hundred miles off the carolina coast will lift northward over the next several days. No direct impacts are expected, although e-se swell will increase today and tomorrow. High pressure will build from the north this weekend and into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hampstead, NC
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location: 34.37, -77.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 161007 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 607 AM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Nicholas enters the area, creating chances for scattered showers and storms through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance off the Atlantic shore may produce some rip currents for local beaches. A drying trend begins this weekend into the middle of next week.

UPDATE. No significant changes with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Satellite shows a plethora of debris clouds from the remnants of Nicolas. This has limited the ability for radiational cooling to produce areas of fog as expected earlier this evening. However, low- level stratus continues to develop in spots. This is expected to continue through sunrise before northerly flow brings slightly drier air into the region and allows a layer from near the surface to around 5k ft AGL to dry out.

PoPs have been increased for Thursday (also expanded over a slightly larger area) over portions of northeastern SC given the current surface analysis and radar depiction over east-central GA. Models also show this precip associated with a mid-level wave moving through the area during peak heating this afternoon. Expecting the tropical air mass to saturate quickly and isolated convection to develop this afternoon. Only limiting factor at this point appears to be high temperatures. Over SC, increasing cloud cover may limit temperatures by the afternoon, limiting our convective potential. NC will be positioned between the tropical air mass to the west and a weak tropical low offshore. Northerly flow on the NW side of the offshore system should be slow to saturate with soundings showing an area of dry air between the surface and around 5k ft AGL. This should limit any shower chances, but have maintained 10% due to the potential for showers to the west to advance eastward.

Temperatures today trending slightly warmer over extreme northeast SC and portions of eastern NC due to the low-level dry air limiting cloud cover until later in the day. Still could see some large variations in temperatures along the I-95 corridor in SC as the arrival of cloud cover and isolated showers pose an interesting challenge. As mentioned above, a vorticity wave ahead of the main remnant circulation may assist with mid-level lift and produce more convection than the current suite of high-resolution models are depicting.

Tropical air mass will remain in place on Friday but the majority of the forcing quickly advances to our north. Air mass convection is possible, but any development would be isolated and quickly diminishing as westerly flow aloft begins to dry-out the column significantly. Have maintained shower chances over NC with areas of SC staying mostly rain-free (low chance of a shallow non-convective shower as the near-surface tropical air mass holds for a few additional hours).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A shortwave trough aloft originates from the Gulf states and moves northeast towards the Carolinas. Meanwhile, closer to the surface, a ridge tries to build into the area, with the GFS yet again being the fastest to mature the ridge by Saturday. Though this ridging does cause a drying trend in the mid- and low- levels of the atmosphere, there is still enough moisture and buoyancy for a chance of showers and storms by Saturday afternoon, with the greatest chances over the inland portions of SC. Showers and storms will be diurnal in nature, with the activity slowing down after sunset.

Highs Saturday in the upper 80s. Lows Friday night and Saturday night in the upper 60s to near 70.

Finally, the NHC is still advertising an area of low pressure a few hundred miles offshore that has a 70% chance of developing tropical characteristics. Though swells will be lowering as this (potentially tropical) system pushes to the northeast, there could be some lingering rip current activity for area beaches on Saturday. Check out weather.gov/beach/ilm for the latest surf forecast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Ridge continues to build in Sunday, attaining some good vertical continuity by Monday. Ridge axis builds in to the north of the area Monday into Tuesday, before pushing offshore by Wednesday. This continues the drying trend, though can't rule out a chance of showers every afternoon. The drier atmosphere kills the buoyancy, so thunder might be hard to come by through this period.

That said, wouldn't be surprised if these rain chances decrease in subsequent forecasts. Tuesday and Wednesday in particular could be rather interesting, as as cold air damming (CAD) may settle into the area, depending on the location of the surface high. Surface high located in the northern mid-Atlantic up into New England, along with northeasterly flow locally, supports this idea. The northeasterly flow may also contribute in more cloud cover (which supports the lack of instability idea) and perhaps slightly lower temperatures. For what it's worth, model soundings don't necessarily show the classic CAD temperature inversion, so the details are still hazy at this point.

High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Main concern in the near-term will be developing fog across the area overnight. Mid-level clouds and scattered upper-level cirrus are creating areas of patchy fog, less coverage than previously thought. Have kept the focus of fog near areas that received rain this afternoon as the thinking is the trapped moisture near the ground will have the higher likelihood of developing patchy fog. Expect cloud bases to lower over the next few hours with low-level stratus possible over portions of inland SC and near the coast near better moisture profiles.

Today, the area will be positioned between moisture from an offshore low and deeper moisture associated with Nicholas to the west. Flow below 700 mb, extending to the surface, mainly from the N-NE. MYR/CRE could see southerly flow established due to a pinned sea breeze. Have maintained mid- level clouds and upper- level debris clouds through much of the period, mainly VFR after patchy IFR this morning.

Extended Outlook . VFR/MVFR to dominate through early Sat with bouts of IFR/LIFR from convection and early morning stratus and fog, possibly dense across the inland terminals. VFR to dominate late Sat thru Mon as high pressure builds in.

MARINE. Through Friday . Northeasterly flow develops in response to a developing area of low pressure offshore. Winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots. Remaining sub-SCA category today, but seas build to 3-5 feet due to the increasing E or SE swell (waves could increase to near 6 feet along the NC waters out 40nm). As the low exits off to the NE, winds will become NW and waves diminish to 3-4 feet by tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Friday Night through Monday . Westerly winds at 5-10kts Friday night become more northerly by Saturday, before becoming more variable throughout Saturday. Winds then settle into a ENE pattern by Sunday morning through the rest of the period, increasing to 10-15kts. Swells 2-3ft Friday night drop off to 1-3ft by Saturday morning, lingering through the weekend. Swells increase slightly to 2-4ft by Monday. Wave periods generally 6-8 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . 21 NEAR TERM . 21 SHORT TERM . IGB LONG TERM . IGB AVIATION . 21 MARINE . IGB/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi44 min N 8 G 8.9 75°F 81°F1015.7 hPa
MBNN7 15 mi32 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.6)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 16 mi144 min ENE 7.8 G 12 80°F 80°F1015.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 16 mi25 min 80°F2 ft
WLON7 16 mi44 min 74°F 81°F1016.3 hPa
MBIN7 21 mi32 min NNE 5.1 G 8 76°F 1015.1 hPa (+0.5)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi24 min NE 14 G 19 80°F 82°F1015.2 hPa
41064 42 mi24 min NE 16 G 21 80°F 1015.5 hPa
41159 42 mi36 min 82°F3 ft
41108 48 mi62 min 81°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi39 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW7W4SE7SE7S11SE7SE7SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE5NE4N4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S9SE9SE8SE10
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2 days agoCalmW5W4SW5W6S7S74W6W6W4S9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Thu -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.11.82.52.92.92.62.21.610.60.40.61.222.83.43.63.53.12.51.81.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:57 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     2.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.310.70.30.20.40.91.31.61.71.61.310.70.50.20.10.30.81.31.71.921.9

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