Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lompoc, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:50PM Thursday February 20, 2020 10:46 AM PST (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 3:15PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 210 Am Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 7 ft dominant period 13 seconds, building to 7 to 9 ft dominant period 12 seconds after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
PZZ600 210 Am Pst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z, or 2 am pst, a 1035 mb surface high was located over western utah, while a 1018 mb thermal trough was located over the san pedro channel. This pattern will break down as a 1016 mb surface low about 300 nm wsw of eureka approaches the california coast. An associated cold front extending south of the low center will move southward over the offshore waters through Thursday night, then cross the waters S of point conception Friday. Increasing nw winds are expected across the waters Saturday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lompoc, CA
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location: 34.38, -120.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 201751 AAA AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 951 AM PST Thu Feb 20 2020

updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. 20/855 AM.

It will be sunny today with above normal temperatures. Clouds will increase on Friday and it will be a few degrees cooler. An approaching storm will bring showers to the area Friday night and Saturday. Dry weather returns Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 20/913 AM.

Offshore flow has increased some through the morning and has done a great job of keeping clouds away from the coast. Offshore winds will be breezy through the morning but not too strong, probably around 15 to 25 mph over localized portions of the Santa Ana wind-prone areas. Some local gusts to 35 mph are possible over the mountains. Winds will weaken but remain offshore for the interior and a sea breeze will develop over the coast by afternoon. The lack of morning cloud cover and offshore flow will combine to bring some warming to 4 to 8 degrees above normal today.

***From Previous Discussion***

Offshore flow continues on Friday and should be enough to keep the low clouds away. The upper low is now forecast to stay a little more to the west during the day and there now will be a little less cloud cover during the day because of it. Max temps will be less than today but will not fall as much as previously thought as there will be more sunshine and offshore flow.

The low will move due east Friday evening and by dawn Saturday it will be about 30 miles south of San Miguel Island. Because of its new more west track the low will entrain a little more moisture. In addition the flow pattern of the low will generate southerly winds ahead of it which will help the rain chances. Rain is now likely across the entire area Friday night esp after midnight and even more esp across the south facing coastal slopes.

By noon the upper low will be over LA county. It will accelerate during the afternoon and will be over Las Vegas in the late afternoon. Rain is pretty much a sure bet for LA county in the morning with decreasing chc of rain as one moves to the north and west away from LA county. Wrap around moisture will keep the chc of rain going in the LA mtns and Antelope Vly in the afternoon.

As mentioned above the more westerly trajectory of the upper low will allow this system to pack a little more rainfall punch and it looks like the coasts and vlys will see about a quarter inch (probably a little less over SLO county) and the mtns could see a half inch with locally higher amounts on the coastal slopes.

Snow levels will be about 5500 feet locally down to 5000 feet. 1 to 3 inched of new snow will fall over portions of the mtns above 5500 feet. Right now it looks like the major mtn passes will see mostly all rain with perhaps some snow mixed in but nothing so bad as to cause large problems.

The thunder question remains and while the chc of TSTMs is not zero it is still not high enough to include in the forecast. The best upper level dynamics occur south of LA county and would not be surprised to see some thunder over Orange or San Diego counties.

Max temps will nose dive into the 60s due to the much lower hgts rain and onshore flow.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 20/331 AM.

After the cutoff low exits the region by Saturday night, dry NW flow will set up on Sunday and last through Tuesday. There could be some decent northerly winds on Monday especially through the I-5 corridor and western canyons of the Santa Ynez range. Clouds will clear out leading to sunny skies through the extended period. Temperatures will also rebound on Sunday back around normal, then warm up a bit more to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

There will be offshore flow both Tue and Wed. The GFS and the EC have been going back and forth on how much there will be and on what day will have the strongest winds. Tonight the EC has the best upper support and hence the best winds while the GFS has weaker upper support and weaker winds. Both mdls now predict that Wednesday will have the strongest winds.

AVIATION. 20/1750Z.

At 1730Z, the marine layer depth was around 400 ft deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 1100 ft with a temperature near 17 deg C.

Hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs with mostly VFR conditions expected through Fri morning. However, there is a 50% chance of MVFR vsbys due to mist at KLGB from about 09Z=16Z Fri.

KLAX . Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions expected through Fri afternoon. Any east to northeast winds Fri morning will remain less than 10 kt.

KBUR . Hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions expected through Fri morning

MARINE. 20/844 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through early Saturday, then there is a 70 percent chance SCA level winds and seas late Saturday through Monday. There is also a 20 percent chance of Gale force wind gusts between Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Saturday night. There is a 60 percent chance of SCA conditions Sunday and Monday.

For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday, except for a 30 percent chance of SCA level W-NW winds across western portions of the SBA Channel Sat night. There is a 50 percent chance of these winds over the channel Sunday and Monday. Gusty offshore winds could develop Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

A cold storm system could bring rain and mountain snow to the region on Saturday. There is a chance of gusty north to northeast winds Monday through Wednesday.



PUBLIC . Stewart/Rorke AVIATION . Sirard MARINE . Hall/Sirard SYNOPSIS . Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 8 mi26 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 57°F1020.5 hPa51°F
HRVC1 10 mi46 min 54°F 1020.2 hPa (+1.3)
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 14 mi46 min 57°F4 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 15 mi46 min N 9.9 G 11 53°F 1020 hPa (+1.6)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 37 mi26 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 59°F1020.5 hPa58°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 44 mi70 min E 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 1020 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 47 mi26 min N 3.9 G 5.8 52°F 56°F1020.9 hPa48°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA20 mi50 minVar 45.00 miFair with Haze59°F44°F58%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPC

Wind History from LPC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5W9W11W13W14W11W9W7CalmW3CalmCalmE4E5CalmE4E5E5E5E6E7E8E74
1 day agoSW6W6W9W9W12W7W7W8CalmW4CalmW3W4E5N4N3NE4CalmE3NE4E6NE5NE4Calm
2 days agoN15N12NW13
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NW14W11W7W8--W5S4CalmCalmE4E4E4E4E5SE4E4E4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.