Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fillmore, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:21PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 1:05 AM PST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 859 Pm Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Combined seas 12 to 15 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 12 seconds, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft dominant period 14 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 859 Pm Pst Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 04z, or 8 pm pst, a 1027 mb high pressure center was located around 700 nm southwest of point conception, and a 1002 mb low was located over las vegas. Widespread gale force winds and very dangerous, steep seas persist across the entire coastal waters through early Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA
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location: 34.4, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 260538 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 938 PM PST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. 25/910 PM.

A cold storm system will continue to exit the region tonight. Drier conditions are forecast for Tuesday, then a much wetter storm system will stall over the region Wednesday and Thursday, mainly Santa Barbara and northward, then move through area later Thursday and Friday. Several inches of rain are likely with feet of high elevation mountain snow, along with moderate to strong southwest winds. Much quieter weather expected over the weekend into early Monday.

SHORT TERM (MON-THU). 25/936 PM.

A cold upper-level trough of low pressure continues to move east of the area, now located over the Lower Colorado River Basin. Showers continue across the region, mainly along the Central Coast, across the Channel Islands, and along the northern slopes of the mountains this evening.Skies will continue to clear across the Southland tonight and into the Tuesday morning. Winds are showing some signs of weakening tonight in relation to earlier in the evening. This trend should continue through tonight and into Tuesday morning. The winter weather and wind headlines look agreeable and no changes are planned to the timing at this time.

A tricky overnight low temperature forecast is in play for tonight and into Tuesday morning. If winds die off much quicker than expected, temperatures could drop colder than forecast and frost and freeze issues could pop-up. With the current thinking that winds will stay up for a majority of tonight, the current temperatures look mostly agreeable. As less winds are expected across the Los Angeles County valleys, a Frost Advisory will be added for late tonight and early Tuesday morning in the latest update.

Some warming will take place on Tuesday as weak high pressure builds in. A drier day in on tap for Tuesday, except for lingering showers along the northern slopes of the mountains in the morning and some afternoon and evening clouds over the mountains due to residual moisture.

***From Previous Discussion***

A low pressure system, currently spinning over the Gulf of Alaska, is on target to drop south and stall off the Oregon Coast by Wednesday. This will create a steady and nearly persistent stream of moist southwest flow (known in some circles as an Atmospheric River) over the region Tuesday Night through at least Thursday. Fairly certainly this will bring 2 to 3 days of nearly steady rain to San Luis Obispo County, and likely to Santa Barbara County. There is a decent chance that Ventura County will at least see several hours of rain during this period, but being right on the fringe of that flow in the latest projections, not sure if it will be a couple of hours or more like 48 hours. same story for Los Angeles County, but to a lesser degree being further away from the core of the moisture. With that said, Los Angeles and Ventura County will definitely see rain this week, but if the stalled plume stays to the north, they will have to wait until later Thursday into Friday when the plume is expected to finally move to the south. Expecting things to taper off by Friday afternoon or night.

To no surprise, San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties are in store for a copious amount of rain. Upped the amounts through Friday to 3 to 6 inches, with 8 to 10 inches possible in the foothills especially near the Santa Lucia Range. For Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, 1 to 2 inches are expected, with 2 to 5 inches in the foothills and mountains. With these types of amounts, expect peak rain rates between 0.50 and 0.75 inches per hour, which can result in debris flows near recent burn areas. A Flash Flood Watch will be considered. While the chance is not high enough yet to mention, there is a very small chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially on the Central Coast. Otherwise, expect a lot of roadway and small creek flooding. Snow levels will be much higher than our current event, with most of the precipitation in the 5000 to 6000 foot range. Mountains above 6000 feet should expect several feet of snow, depending on how long they are in the moisture plume. Winter Storm Warnings will likely be issued. Period of gusty south winds are also expected, especially on Wednesday over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, with gusts between 40 and 60 mph expected (even near the coast). To no surprise, temperatures will stay about 10 degree below normal.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 25/347 PM.

For Fridays discussion, see section above. The weather for the weekend into Monday looks fairly benign, with a maybe a few residual showers linger on Saturday. Temperatures will remain below normal, but could touch normal on Monday.

AVIATION. 26/0003Z.

At 23Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in TAFs with higher confidence in flight category and less confidence in wind speeds. VFR conditions are likely to continue through the period with passing scattered showers. There is a 20-30% chance of a quick shower mainly for sites north of Point Conception through the evening, before tapering off after midnight. If a shower does develop, conditions will likely briefly drop to MVFR, or IFR for a heavier shower. As for winds, gusty west to northwest winds will likely continue through early to mid- evening, then start to diminish overnight. Wind speeds may be off by up to 10 kt and timing may be off by an hour or two. Areas if moderate to possibly severe turbulence are possible through the evening.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of showers through the evening. If a shower does develop, MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are possible. Otherwise good confidence in VFR conditions. Gusty west winds will likely continue through the evening, then start to taper off after midnight. Good confidence in no east wind component.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of showers through the evening. If a shower does develop, MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are possible. Otherwise good confidence in VFR conditions. Gusty northwest winds will likely continue through the evening, then start to taper off after midnight, and areas of turbulence are likely.

MARINE. 25/826 PM.

***Very dangerous wind and sea conditions across the entire coastal waters through early Tuesday*** Widespread Gale force winds will continue to affect the entire coastal waters through this evening before tapering off overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will likely gust up to 40 kt, but some local areas may gust in excess of 50 kt through the evening. The Gale Warning will expire at 9am, but there is a chance that winds may diminish faster by around dawn. There will likely be SCA level winds Tuesday morning before diminishing below SCA level by the afternoon.

In addition to gusty winds, dangerous seas will also remain an issue through Tuesday. Seas of 15 to 20 feet are likely through this evening across the waters north of Point Conception and southwest of the Channel Islands. Seas of 10 to 16 feet are likely through tonight for the waters inside the Southern California Bight. Seas will begin decreasing Tuesday before rising again Wednesday.

The decrease in winds will be short-lived on Tuesday as the next major storm system will be making its approach Tuesday night. Winds will shift to the south on Tuesday evening and strengthen to at least SCA level after midnight spreading from north to south. There will likely be another round of Gales across the waters from the Channel Islands northward, with a 50% chance for the Santa Barbara Channel starting during the early morning hours on Wednesday through much of Thursday. Models are indicating lighter winds across the waters adjacent to LA and Orange Counties due to the fact that the storm will likely stall across the Central Coast. Then by Thursday night winds will increase to SCA level. So the forecast for these waters has much lower confidence because this forecast track may change with future model runs.

BEACHES. 25/843 PM.

Surf will peak at 14 to 18 feet with local sets to 20 feet on the Central Coast through tonight. On west facing beaches south of Point Conception, surf will peak at 8 to 12 feet with local sets to 14 feet through early Tuesday. Surf will slowly subside on Tuesday before increasing again Wednesday.

There may be minor coastal flooding through Tuesday morning, especially within a few hours of the times of high tide and again Thursday. There will be strong and dangerous rip currents on all area beaches through Tuesday. The surf will likely cause some beach erosion.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Tuesday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Tuesday for zones 34>36-39>41-46-59-87. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 37-44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 38-51-52. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Tuesday for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 44-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect until 4 AM PST Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Multiple days of steady moderate to heavy rainfall and mountain snow is likely Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall intensities could result in debris flow issues for the recent burn areas. Feet of mountain snow may result in high mountain road closure. Gusty southerly winds could result in downed limbs, trees and power lines.



PUBLIC . Hall/Kittell AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Phillips/Stewart BEACHES . Phillips/Stewart SYNOPSIS . Hall

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46268 34 mi36 min 50°F 56°F5 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 37 mi90 min W 5.1 G 11 45°F 1010.4 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi48 min WNW 12 G 15 50°F 57°F1009.7 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 42 mi40 min 58°F10 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 44 mi26 min WNW 27 G 33 52°F 1009.9 hPa40°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi26 min NW 21 G 27 51°F 57°F1011.6 hPa39°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA14 mi71 minW 1210.00 miFair47°F30°F52%1010.4 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA17 mi75 minWNW 1110.00 miFair47°F30°F52%1009.7 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA20 mi74 minWNW 17 G 2110.00 miFair49°F31°F50%1010.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE3NE7NW3CalmNE5NE3NE4W3CalmSW36SW10W10W14
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2 days agoE4E3E4E3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalm3S3SW3N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM PST     5.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:50 PM PST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:21 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:17 PM PST     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.42.533.74.65.45.85.75.14.12.71.40.2-0.6-0.8-0.40.41.52.53.23.63.53.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:10 AM PST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST     5.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:47 PM PST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:21 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM PST     3.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.42.533.74.65.45.85.75.14.12.71.30.1-0.6-0.8-0.40.51.52.53.23.63.53.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.