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Marine Weather and Tides Fillmore, CA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 6:46AM

Sunset 4:46PM

Friday December 6, 2019 9:36 AM PST (17:36 UTC)

Moonrise 2:50PM

Moonset 2:23AM

Illumination 73%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA

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Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 061245 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 445 AM PST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. 06/233 AM.

A storm system over the eastern Pacific Ocean will bring increasing clouds today with rain becoming likely between tonight and Saturday. Shower activity should linger into Sunday, then a general warming and drying trend should develop through the rest of next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 06/303 AM.

The latest infrared imagery from GOES-West shows an upper-level trough of low pressure centered near 39N and 137W and moving east toward the North Coast of California. A plume of tropical moisture can be seen coming together on the southeastern edge of the of trough's influence north of 20N and between 120W and 130W. This subtropical moisture will become embedded into the trough later today and move over the region tonight and Saturday. 850 mb mixing ratios exceed 8 g/kg across portions of the area in the latest model solutions, with the best moisture moving south of the area. Though there is weak dynamics with the trough, orographic lift will make up for the rest. A weak warm air advective pattern develops in the lower levels later today, and as this air mass hits the topographic features of southern California, it will be lifted additionally and work with the moist air mass to produce precipitation. PoPs and QPF values have been increased in the latest forecast, more inline with NCEP WRF and NBM solutions and NWS WPC guidance. Rain with snow above 7000 feet will become likely between tonight and Saturday across much of the area. Rainfall rates will be light (around 0.05-0.10 inch/hour), but long duration light rainfall should allow for totals to approach between 0.50-1.00 inch across most of the area with local amounts up to 1.50-2.00 inches along favored south facing slopes and foothills. Breezy to locally gusty south winds are expected across the mountains and north and west of Santa Barbara. Southerly winds are marginal for a wind advisory. Winds are lighter than in the previous model solutions and have backed off an advisory for the usual sites. Mentions of local advisory level winds have been mentioned for now.

Rain should taper off to showers sometime between Saturday night and Sunday, but shower activity could linger into Monday as another shortwave trough digs down on the back side of the broader trough circulation. This could bring lower snow levels in scattered rain and snow showers along the northern slopes. There is a chance that the Interstate 5 Corridor could be affected by snow showers and breezy winds between Sunday and Monday, but it seems unlikely at this time.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 06/305 AM.

The trough should clear out of the region on Monday and be replaced by an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Warming and drying should take place for early next week, then a weak weather system could bring a break in the warming trend and possibly a bit more clouds for Wednesday. A showery weather pattern could develop Wednesday, but a majority of the ensemble solutions favor a drier solution at this time.

Strong ridging aloft develops late next week and should bring additional warming to the area after Thursday. Temperatures could warm to 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION. 06/1242Z.

At 1215Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAFs. Moderate confidence in VFR cigs through this afternoon for all sites. However, sites north of Point Conception may fluctuate between VFR and MVFR cigs. Low confidence this evening for timing of showers and flight category changes.

KLAX . Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z. Low confidence afterward, as there is a chance of MVFR cigs during any rain showers. Good confidence in an east wind component 5 kt or less through 20Z. An east wind component up to 8 knots will likely develop between 02Z and 07Z tonight.

KBUR . Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z. Low confidence afterward, as there is a chance of MVFR cigs during any rain showers.

MARINE. 06/244 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the northern portion of the outer waters (PZZ670/673), good confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level southeast winds developing this morning and continuing through Saturday morning. Moderate confidence that gale force gusts will develop over the far northern section (PZZ670) this afternoon and last through late tonight, and the GALE WATCH has been converted to a GALE WARNING. Low confidence that PZZ673 will develop gale force gusts, so have cancelled the GALE WATCH there. The far southern portion of the outer waters (PZZ676) may develop localized SCA level gusts this afternoon and evening. Good confidence that winds will remain below SCA level on Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Good confidence in SCA level southeast winds developing this morning and continuing through Saturday morning. Low to moderate confidence on whether gale force gusts will develop, so have delayed the GALE watch to go into effect this evening. For Saturday afternoon through Tuesday, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Overall, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Tuesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level southeast winds developing this afternoon into Saturday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Sunday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM PST Sunday for zone 40. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from this evening through late tonight for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Hall AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart SYNOPSIS . Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340	37 mi	61 min	SW 1 G 1.9	60°F			1019.8 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier	38 mi	55 min	ENE 8 G 12	63°F	61°F		1020.4 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028)	42 mi	41 min			62°F	3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA	44 mi	37 min	ESE 1.9 G 1.9	61°F	61°F		1020.4 hPa (+1.3)	61°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA	46 mi	27 min	SE 9.7 G 12	62°F	61°F		1020.3 hPa	58°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA

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NE6

E5 G8

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W4 G8

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E7 G11

E9 G16

E5 G11

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SE15 G20

NE10

E14 G20

SE10 G14

E9 G12

E9 G14

SE13 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA	14 mi	42 min	E 11	10.00 mi	Fair	64°F	46°F	52%	1020.6 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA	17 mi	46 min	E 6	10.00 mi	Fair	61°F	48°F	65%	1019.7 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA	20 mi	45 min	S 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	63°F	46°F	56%	1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)

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NE12

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NE18 G27

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NW7

NE11

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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA

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