Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 13, 2020 7:08 PM PDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 3:33PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 206 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 206 Pm Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was located 1000 nm west of eureka, and a 1005 mb thermal low was over southeast california. Post-tropical cyclone elida was located about 500 nm south of los angeles and moving toward the northwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 132126 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 226 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. 13/824 AM.

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as moisture streams into the region from the south. It will be very warm today, then it will become very hot Friday especially for valley and interior areas. The heat is expected to last into early next week. Night and morning low clouds and fog will be minimal, and confined near the coast.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 13/225 PM.

An upper-level low centered about 350 miles west of Point Conception is bringing southerly flow with subtropical moisture from the remnants of what was once "Elida" along its eastern side into our area. This caused numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the coastal waters and into San Luis Obispo County this morning. Rain totals were less than a tenth of an inch. Rain chances will continue in SLO County through this evening.

Still expecting a reduction in cloud cover this afternoon, and models indicate instability this afternoon, mainly in the mountains, the Antelope Valley, and the interior valleys of SLO and SBA Counties. Lifted index values drop to around -5.5 across the mtns of VTU County, with K index values near 42. Model soundings show CAPE as high as 1100 j/kg in the VTU County mtns. Orographics should provide enough of a trigger for some convective activity this afternoon, so keeping a slight threat of showers and thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon into early this evening. With any thunderstorm, there will be a threat of dry lightning, and erratic gusty winds, creating enhanced fire concerns.

Max temps today are largely a factor of the sky cover, with the cloud free portions of the south coast 5 degrees or more warmer than yesterday. In places where it remains fairly cloudy there has been a bit of cooling in some interior sections today. Still a lot of afternoon to go, and expecting more warming throughout as skies are clearing everywhere except SLO County.

The upper low should slide westward tonight and Friday, and models show another surge of higher precipitable water values brought into the region late tonight and Fri. There will still be a fair amount of instability Fri afternoon, especially across the mtns of L.A. and VTU Counties and the Antelope Valley. In addition, there will be less cloud cover and more heating on Friday so continuing with a slight chance of showers/tstms again Fri afternoon in the same areas.

Expect little in the way of night through morning low clouds tonight/Fri morning. Onshore gradients weaken on Fri, and temps at 950 mb rise quite a bit. After a warm night tonight, with lows remaining in the 70s to around 80 in the valleys, foothills and Antelope Valley, max temps will really jump in most areas on Friday. Expect highs to rise to between 102 and 110 degrees in the Antelope Valley, the warmest locations in the lower mountain elevations, and in the warmest locations in the valleys from L.A. County through SLO County. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for all of the areas starting of Fri, with a Heat Advisory for the Los Angeles County coast and the Santa Ynez Valley.

It will be another very warm night Fri night, with lows struggling to fall below 80 in the Antelope Valley, the foothills and even some valley locations. If there is any night through morning low clouds and fog, it will be confined to the immediate coast Fri night/Sat morning.

Heights will rise a bit more over the region on Sat as will temps at 950 mb. Gradients will remain rather weak, though may be slightly stronger onshore in the afternoon. Overall, expect little change in max temps on Sat, still very hot, with Excessive Heat warnings and Heat Advisories in effect for the same areas as those on Fri. N-S gradients across SBA County may bring some gusty sundowner winds to southern SBA County late Sat into Sat night.

The upper high will move northward a bit into Nevada and Utah Sunday and strengthen, keeping heights very high across the forecast area. The northward move may open the door for some monsoonal moisture moving into the area from the southeast. Have added in a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains as a possibility accordingly.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 13/223 PM.

Not much change in the pattern Mon through Thu, with the upper high bouncing from 595 to 600 DaM and centered over southern Nevada. The ridge weakens a bit by Thursday, but we're looking at a combination over hot days and very warm nights with excessive heat conditions in the valleys and mtns for a while.

Some models continue the monsoonal moisture push into the region through Tuesday and have added a chance of afternoon mountain thunder and showers accordingly.

AVIATION. 13/2028Z.

At 1907Z, the marine layer was around 600 ft deep with the top of the inversion at 1300 feet with a temperature around 26 degrees Celsius.

Remnant moisture from post-tropical storm Elida will bring VFR Clouds over the region through today with VCSH possible for coastal and valley TAFs through 2200z. Better chance for -TSRA across the mountains and Antelope Valley after 18z through 03z this evening.

Mid level clouds have scoured out the marine clouds. Some smoke will affect KPMD and KWJF from the Lake Fire, otherwise terminals should remain VFR through the 24 hour period.

KLAX . There is a 20 percent chance for IFR conditions after 12Z.

KBUR . VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE. 13/129 PM.

Winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday morning. There is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA level gusts during the afternoon and evening hours each day from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. There is a better chance of (SCA) winds increasing from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island Saturday afternoon through through Sunday evening. Then good confidence grows with (SCA) level NW wind gusts across the entire outer waters through at least Monday night.

The best chance for Sundowner winds will occur Saturday and Sunday evenings affecting the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel with NW gusts reaching (SCA) thresholds.

Patchy fog, locally dense with visibility under one mile, will likely continue through mid-week across all the waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zones 36-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 37-38-44>46-51>54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Triple digit high temperatures and very warm nights will bring the potential for excessive heat over many areas through Monday and, for far inland areas, into Tuesday or longer. There is a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms from Sunday through Tuesday.



PUBLIC . DB/jld AVIATION . Sweet/Kaplan MARINE . Sweet/Kaplan SYNOPSIS . Sweet/DB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi93 min WSW 8.9 G 13 69°F 1011 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi29 min W 9.7 G 12 63°F 64°F1010.4 hPa60°F
46251 44 mi43 min 69°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi76 minNNE 310.00 miFair73°F55°F55%1010 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi78 minW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds73°F59°F62%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmS5E3SE4E43E4SE3SE4E5CalmW4CalmS4S34W11SW9S8SE6SW12NE3SE3
1 day agoW7CalmCalmE4E3E4N4N3CalmCalmNE4NE5SE3SE4S5S7SE8SW7SW95SW5W7SW4S3
2 days agoW7W7W4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3CalmCalmSE3S44SW7S8SW9SW9SW10W11W9W7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM PDT     3.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:27 AM PDT     3.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:09 PM PDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.41.72.12.62.93.23.23.23.1333.23.644.54.95.154.53.82.92

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM PDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM PDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:01 AM PDT     2.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM PDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.111.11.522.42.833.132.92.82.93.13.54.14.64.954.84.33.52.61.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.