Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carpinteria, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...05/125 PM.

Southern California coastal areas are solidly locked into a June gloom pattern and will likely remain that way well at least into early next week. Interior areas have been warm but will be trending cooler at least through the weekend as two large low pressure systems move through the Pac NW. Forecast soundings are finally starting to show a deepening marine layer through the weekend, rising from 2000 feet today south of Pt Conception to around 3000 feet tomorrow morning and 3500 feet Sunday. A little less deep north of Pt Conception. This combined with increasing onshore flow and weak eddy circulation will bring inland temperatures down at least 4-8 degrees and coastal areas down 1-3 degrees. Low clouds and fog will push into the valleys each night, including the Santa Clarita Valley with later clearing inland and minimal clearing at the beach, if any. Central coast areas will likely clear earlier than areas to the south but temperatures will be cooling there as well, especially inland.

A warming trend is set to begin Monday, mainly just for inland areas as the the last of the troughs move inland and high pressure starts to rebuild over the eastern Pacific. Models also continue to advertise a return of Sundowners across southwest Santa Barbara County Sunday night (and possibly the I5 corridor) as northwest flow returns following the trough passage

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...05/155 PM.

Medium range models continue to favor a warming at least through next week as high pressure builds in from the west. Sundowners will be a daily occurrence each afternoon and evening most of the week and temperatures will warm at least 1-3 degrees each day.
Still expecting valley highs to remain no higher than the 80s through Wednesday and the Antelope Valley mostly in the lower 90s.

Confidence in the forecast beyond that remains rather low. While more than half of the ensemble solutions do continue to show a very slow climb of temperatures into next weekend, there are still at least 40% that maintain a weak trough over the southwest with a steady dose of onshore flow each day. While the latter would be the climatologically favored solution, certainly cannot discount a warmer pattern at this point. There are even around 20% of solutions showing a light to moderate offshore gradient, which would be very anomalous for this time of year. Based on the latest NBM there is roughly a 5-10% chance of warmer valleys reaching 100 next weekend and Downtown reaching the 90.

AVIATION
06/0106Z.

At 0029Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4000 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF. For all other sites, moderate confidence in current forecast due to uncertainties in behavior of marine layer. Low confidence in KPRB due to uncertainty in low cloud coverage and timing. Otherwise, the timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. 30-40% chance that no IFR conds occur. No significant easterly wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. 30% chance of IFR conds between 06Z and 18Z.

MARINE
05/121 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
Additionally, there is a 60-80% chance of GALE force winds across PZZ670/673 Saturday and Saturday night. So, a GALE WARNING has been issued for these areas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Through Saturday morning, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. From Saturday afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds are expected, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, along with seas approaching SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, where there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds Sunday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).