Carpinteria, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carpinteria, CA

June 19, 2024 10:51 PM PDT (05:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM
Moonrise 6:26 PM   Moonset 3:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 945 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 19 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night - .

Tonight - Western portions, nw wind 20 to 30 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portions, 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt nw wind seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 6 seconds.

Thu - W wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest over western portions. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 7 seconds.

Thu night - Western portion, W wind 20 to 30 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Fri - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Fri night - W wind 10 to 20 kt, strongest western portions. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds.

Sat - Light winds. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Sat night - Light winds. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Sun - Light winds. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Sun night - W wind 5 to 10 kt in the evening, becoming light. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Mon - Light winds, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Mon night - W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

PZZ600 945 Pm Pdt Wed Jun 19 2024

Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - At 04z, or 9 pm pdt, a 1027 mb high was located 1300 nm W of point conception and a 1000 mb thermal low was near las vegas, ca. Hazardous marine conditions with gusty nw winds and steep seas will affect much of the outer waters through Thu night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 200514 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1014 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
19/1013 PM.

Overnight low clouds and fog will continue along the coast and valley areas through Thursday. A warming trend will take shape over the coming day as high pressure aloft over the eastern half of the country expands west. Above normal temperatures will prevalent through late week and into early next week, especially in the interior where dangerously hot weather is possible over the weekend.

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...19/1011 PM.

The latest satellite imagery indicates broad troughing over the Western States with a secondary trough carving out off the California coast. Onshore flow is strengthening out ahead of the trough as cyclonic flow aloft helps deepen the marine intrusion.
Surface pressure gradients already show some reflection of onshore flow increasing, especially north of Point Conception. The marine layer induced low clouds and fog are a little bit more disorganized this evening, but the latest fog product is indicating more organization moving down the Central Coast. Low clouds should become more entrenched overnight along the Central Coast, while a Catalina Eddy regenerates overnight to expand clouds south of Point Conception. Low cloud coverage along the South Coast of California should expand northward into the Ventura County coastal areas by Thursday morning. The latest marine layer depth at KLAX suggest a 1300 foot deep marine layer depth in place, while an earlier sounding from KVBG indicated the marine layer depth about 1500 feet deep. With the depth of the marine layer, it should be deep enough to intrude into the Santa Ynez Valley and the San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys. Because of the later start, it seems unlikely to return to the Ventura County Valleys.

Some concern exists for patchy drizzle as weak dynamics move over the area tonight through Thursday morning. There is a bit lower confidence due to a thinner marine layer depth to work with, but the marine layer could still lift and squeeze out precipitation.
PoPs have been nudged higher and mention of patchy morning drizzle was added for Thursday morning.

Even with the trough moving into Point Conception, 500 mb heights climb and 1000-500 mb thickness values increase as strong ridging over the Eastern States starts expand westward. As a result, the trough's progress is halted through Thursday near Point Conception and is then forced to lift out over the ridge. NAM-WRF 950 mb temperatures warm by about 6 degrees Celsius over Los Angeles County on Thursday. With this in mind, the forecast was warmed a bit more for Thursday to put values closer to forecast guidance and EPS ensemble means.

Gusty Sundowner winds continue this evening across southwestern Santa Barbara County, and a wind advisory remains in effect through 3 am PDT. Both Refugio and Gaviota RAWS stations indicate northerly winds gusting to between 45 and 47 mph currently.

An update to the forecast was issued prior, and no further updates are expected at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Synoptically, the area is under an upper-level trough that extends over the western two thirds of the CONUS. By late Friday this feature will have moved to the east and the area will be in a broad area of higher pressure. By Sunday the peak of the high will be located near the four-corners area, a position favorable to transport moisture to the area during the monsoon season, and models are indicating there is over one inch of perceptible water heading our way with it. This will complicate the temperature forecast and could possibly lead to some afternoon mountain showers although they are not currently indicated. Higher heights will remain in place throughout the week until another trough drops down the California coast on Friday.

Temperatures are currently 2-4 degrees cooler along the coast with stronger onshore flow along the south coast and some lingering marine clouds. Heights are also a bit lower today. Onshore flow ad the LAX-DAG gradient is up to 5.3 and this may keep some south coast beaches cloudy all afternoon. Still expecting strong NW winds coming off the waters of the Central Coast to filter through the Western Santa Ynez range and produce low end advisory level gusts across the western half of the SBA south coast this afternoon and evening.

Two competing forces will be at work on the marine layer cloud pattern on Thursday as increasing troffing aloft combines with the eddy to promote cloud development. On the other hand sfc gradients will be weaker than they are this morning. Short range ensemble guidance shows that the eddy will likely be weaker and this should tip the scales to a clearer forecast. The best chance for low clouds will be over the southern portion of LA county and the Central Coast. Added in more low clouds for Oxnard plain through Burbank for tomorrow based on latest model guidance. The offshore trends will delay and weaken the seabreeze and this will bring 2 to 3 degrees of warming to the area with the exception of the Central Coast which will cool due to a more robust marine layer presence. The Summer Solstice will occur at 151 PM PDT.

Friday will kick off a fairly dramatic warm up as a large and hot upper high over the middle of the county expands westward. The eddy looks a little stronger so probably a little more morning low clouds across the coasts and into some of the lower vlys. By noon the whole area will be clear. Heights will climb to ~588 dam and max temps will warm 5 to 10 degrees across the interior and 2 to 4 degrees across the vlys. The coasts will still be under the marine influence and max temps will not change much. Antelope Vly residents will see max temps range from 100 to 103 degrees or about 8 degrees over normal, and The Paso Robles area will also near the 100 degree mark.

Saturday should be the hottest day of the heat event as SoCal will be covered by the western half of an upper high's western half. Heights will rise to ~591 dam, but the fairly strong onshore flow will remain in place resulting in a strong temperature gradient from the coasts to inland. The high hgts will really smoosh the marine layer down and create a very strong inversion. Such strong inversions are hard to break down and this could keep clouds at the beach all day long. The marine layer will be under 1000 ft and this will keep it out of most if not all of the vlys. The very steep inversion will also keep min temps much warmer than normal right at the top of the inversion so locations near 1000 ft in elevation will see these very warm overnight lows. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of warming on Saturday away from the beaches. Max temps across the interior will end up 6 to 12 degrees above normal while the vlys will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal. There is about a 10% chance of 1" PWAT reaching into LA County by Saturday afternoon. This moisture could impact the Saturday night to Sunday marine layer, and overnight min temps.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...19/152 PM.

Blended ensemble guidance shows some cooling on Sunday which could be a reflection of the PWAT which is up to a 60% chance of more than 1" by Sunday afternoon. The NAEFS forecast values for PW are in the 90th to 99th percentile over Los Angeles County basically from Sunday through Tuesday. This moisture will affect the marine layer and temperature forecasts. There is even a small (10-20%)
chance of afternoon showers over the mountains.

The higher heights persist over the area Monday through Wednesday but the broader area moves to the west and this position will turn off the moisture to the area by late Tuesday. The temperature differences will continue with the coasts sitting near normal with a stubborn night through morning low cloud pattern in place and the interior seeing well above-normal temps.

AVIATION
20/0051Z.

Around 2330Z, the marine layer depth was near 1900 feet deep at KLAX. The top of the marine inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for the desert terminals.
Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley terminals. Higher confidence exists in flight categories versus timing. Timing of arrival could much later than forecast. Timing of clearing could be off by two hours later or earlier.

There is a moderate chance of VFR conditions remaining through the period at Los Angeles County valley terminals. There is a low-to- moderate chance of conditions being one category lower than the forecast, especially between 10Z and 14Z.

KLAX...MVFR conditions will spread into KLAX as early as 02Z or as late as 09Z. There is a 10 percent chance of conditions being one category lower than forecast around arrival. Any easterly winds between 09Z and 17Z should be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...MVFR conditions could arrive as soon as 10Z, or as late as 14Z. There is a 30 percent chance of VFR conditions through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of conditions being one category lower than forecast around arrival.

MARINE
19/956 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected through Friday night.
Brief lulls in the winds during the mornings hours are possible.
Seas will be steep and choppy through Friday night. Conditions are then expected to be below SCA levels Saturday through Monday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA winds and choppy seas will persist through tonight, and again Thursday afternoon and evening. For Friday through Monday night, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. SCA conditions were limited to far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel today, and the next shift may need to end the current SCA early. Thursday, SCA winds will likely again be confined to far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. Winds should remain below SCA levels for the waters south of Point Mugu, but will be stronger over western portions of zone PZZ655. Local winds near SCA levels are possible again Friday for western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel and near Santa Cruz Island. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels over the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi76 minENE 2.9G2.9 60°F 29.83
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi42 minNW 5.8G7.8 60°F 59°F29.8057°F
46251 44 mi56 min 58°F 62°F4 ft


Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSBA SANTA BARBARA MUNI,CA 17 sm58 minS 038 smClear59°F55°F88%29.82
KOXR OXNARD,CA 22 sm60 minW 048 smClear61°F55°F82%29.84
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Wind History graph: SBA
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Tide / Current for Rincon Island, California (2)
   
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Rincon Island
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Wed -- 03:14 AM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM PDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:54 PM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:20 PM PDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet
12
am
2.1
1
am
1
2
am
0.2
3
am
-0.2
4
am
-0.1
5
am
0.5
6
am
1.3
7
am
2.1
8
am
2.8
9
am
3.2
10
am
3.3
11
am
3.1
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
2.6
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.6
4
pm
3.2
5
pm
3.9
6
pm
4.8
7
pm
5.5
8
pm
5.9
9
pm
5.8
10
pm
5.2
11
pm
4.2


Tide / Current for Rincon Island, California
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Rincon Island
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Wed -- 03:11 AM PDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:32 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM PDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:39 PM PDT     2.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:10 PM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Rincon Island, California, Tide feet
12
am
1.9
1
am
0.8
2
am
0
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.2
5
am
0.4
6
am
1.2
7
am
2
8
am
2.7
9
am
3.1
10
am
3.2
11
am
3.1
12
pm
2.8
1
pm
2.5
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
2.8
4
pm
3.3
5
pm
4.1
6
pm
5
7
pm
5.7
8
pm
6
9
pm
5.8
10
pm
5.1
11
pm
4


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Los Angeles, CA,




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