Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carpinteria, CA
![]() | Sunrise 7:01 AM Sunset 6:27 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 2:24 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 851 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 13 2025
.gale warning in effect until 3 am pdt Tuesday - .
Tonight - SW wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming se 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms. Rain.
Tue - SE wind 15 to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 7 seconds, W 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tue night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming light. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds, W 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Wed - Light winds, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night - Western portion, nw wind 15 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, nw wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 6 seconds.
Thu - N wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night - NW wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 6 seconds and W 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri - Light winds. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night - W wind 5 to 10 kt in the evening, becoming light. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat - Light winds. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 13 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
PZZ600 851 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 13 2025
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a a 1029 mb surface high was centered about 800 nm nw of portland, and a 1000 mb surface low was over san francisco bay. A cold front associated with this low will move over the sw california waters tonight through Tue. During this time there will be a chance of Thunderstorms over the waters.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA

NEW! Add second zone forecast
Rincon Island Click for Map Mon -- 06:04 AM PDT 3.69 feet High Tide Mon -- 07:01 AM PDT Sunrise Mon -- 09:10 AM PDT 3.63 feet Low Tide Mon -- 11:14 AM PDT Last Quarter Mon -- 02:23 PM PDT Moonset Mon -- 03:24 PM PDT 5.12 feet High Tide Mon -- 06:25 PM PDT Sunset Mon -- 11:28 PM PDT 0.02 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet
12 am |
0.7 |
1 am |
1.3 |
2 am |
2.1 |
3 am |
2.8 |
4 am |
3.3 |
5 am |
3.6 |
6 am |
3.7 |
7 am |
3.7 |
8 am |
3.6 |
9 am |
3.6 |
10 am |
3.7 |
11 am |
3.9 |
12 pm |
4.2 |
1 pm |
4.6 |
2 pm |
4.9 |
3 pm |
5.1 |
4 pm |
5.1 |
5 pm |
4.7 |
6 pm |
4.1 |
7 pm |
3.2 |
8 pm |
2.2 |
9 pm |
1.2 |
10 pm |
0.5 |
11 pm |
0.1 |
Rincon Island Click for Map Mon -- 06:05 AM PDT 3.67 feet High Tide Mon -- 07:01 AM PDT Sunrise Mon -- 09:10 AM PDT 3.42 feet Low Tide Mon -- 11:14 AM PDT Last Quarter Mon -- 02:23 PM PDT Moonset Mon -- 03:21 PM PDT 5.15 feet High Tide Mon -- 06:25 PM PDT Sunset Mon -- 11:24 PM PDT -0.19 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |   |
Rincon Island, California, Tide feet
12 am |
0.4 |
1 am |
1.1 |
2 am |
1.9 |
3 am |
2.7 |
4 am |
3.2 |
5 am |
3.6 |
6 am |
3.7 |
7 am |
3.6 |
8 am |
3.5 |
9 am |
3.4 |
10 am |
3.5 |
11 am |
3.7 |
12 pm |
4.1 |
1 pm |
4.5 |
2 pm |
4.9 |
3 pm |
5.1 |
4 pm |
5.1 |
5 pm |
4.7 |
6 pm |
4 |
7 pm |
3 |
8 pm |
2 |
9 pm |
1 |
10 pm |
0.2 |
11 pm |
-0.2 |
Area Discussion for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 140318 AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 818 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/728 PM.
A rare October storm system will bring widespread rain tonight through Tuesday, with a threat of pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There is a significant risk of debris flows, road flooding, and isolated wind damage. Temperatures will remain well below normal through Wednesday, with steady warming to follow through the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 818 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
13/728 PM.
A rare October storm system will bring widespread rain tonight through Tuesday, with a threat of pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms. There is a significant risk of debris flows, road flooding, and isolated wind damage. Temperatures will remain well below normal through Wednesday, with steady warming to follow through the weekend.
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...13/751 PM.
***UPDATE***
The heavy-weight October storm has entered Monterey County and is poised to start its run through the forecast area. Some light pre frontal showers have already popped up across the 4 county area with even LAX reporting some light rain falling. The latest high rez mdl runs confirm the current forecast with frontal passage and attendant heaviest rain will occur over SLO county between 10pm and 2am; SBA county midnight to 4am; VTA county 3am to 7am and LA county from 6am to 10 am.
There has been no forecast decrease in intensity of this storm and many if not all of the recent burn areas will likely experience some form of flooding/debris flows. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all 1st and 2nd year burn scars through Tuesday afternoon.
***From Previous Discussion***
A rare and very potent storm system remains on track to affect the area tonight through tomorrow, with lingering showers possible into early Wednesday. All areas will see rain. Some areas will see short bursts of heavy rain, although it remains difficult to predict exactly where. South-facing slopes and foothills have the highest chance of seeing those heavy bursts, but they can happen anywhere.
Rainfall totals remain on target, with 0.75 and 1.50 inches common, except 2.00 to 4.00 inches in the favorable south facing slopes and anywhere those heavy bursts form. An isolated reading of 5 inches is on the table, especially over the San Gabriels where computer projections show the highest totals. Peak rainfall rates of 0.33 to 0.66 inches per hour will be common, which should be enough to cause plenty of minor road issues and heavy traffic for the Tuesday morning commute - as well as shallow debris flows impacting a few roads near a burn scar. A few lanes or offramps could be flooded. Rockslides in canyon roads are nearly certain. Isolated rates to around 1.00 inches per hour are also likely, but again not exactly sure where. Wherever those occur, impacts will be locally amplified. If they occur in an urban area, several lanes of a freeway could flood. If they occur over a burn scar, a deeper more significant debris flow would form which could cover and close a road and or threaten structures.
That is a real possibility, with the Palisades, Eaton, and southern Bridge burn scars having the highest threat.
In addition to the hydro risks, there is a significant threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but damaging winds and or a tornado. Still seeing several signatures (the trajectory of the low, the diffluence aloft, the high shear environment) for supercell thunderstorms with several high resolution models resolving finer scale parameters conducive of isolated strong downdraft winds and/or weak tornadoes (updraft helicity being one of them).
What should people do? For tonight through Tuesday: Avoid outdoor activities and stay indoors as much as possible, especially if you hear thunder, see lightning, or experience sudden wind shifts. Avoid parking near tall trees. Be ready for sudden power outages. Avoid the roads as much as possible, and if you have to drive, allow extra time as traffic will be increased due to slippery roads, low visibility, and localized flooding. If you are near a burn scar, there is a risk of significant debris flows.
Heed the advice of local officials, and expect at the very least mud and debris on some roads. Boaters, please stay in safe harbor.
For everyone, stay tuned to your local news outlet and weather.gov for any updates.
In addition, there will be a period of gusty southwest winds focused over the interior areas. Snow levels remain high (above 7,000 feet) for the majority of the precipitation, but they lower to 5,500 to 6,000 feet after the main rain later on Tuesday. So while this is not a big snow maker of a storm, any post frontal showers could be some light accumulations down to 6,000 foot elevations.
By Wednesday afternoon or evening, any linger showers should end.
Drying and warming northwest to north winds will quickly follow Wednesday Night and turn northeasterly on Thursday. Gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range are the most likely outcome. Temperatures will increase as a result, along with a warming airmass, with highs in the 70s common by Thursday.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/249 PM.
Some models are showing the northeast flow that forms on Thursday increasing some more on Friday then decreasing through Saturday.
Meanwhile high pressure will be building over the southwest.
Temperatures will continue to rise as a result, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s common Friday through the weekend.
AVIATION
14/0207Z.
At 2355Z at KLAX, there a was 4400 ft deep moist layer.
Low confidence in the TAF. A strong cold front will pass through the area and will exit LA county around noon on Tuesday (14/20Z).
Strong south winds ahead of the front will create areas of TURBC over and near to hier trrn.
Both Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as the front nears passes over every site. There is a 30 percent chc of TSTMs with the front and a 20 percent chc during the afternoon behind the front.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently 08Z-20Z. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm from 12Z to 18Z Tue. High confidence in a 10-15 kt east wind component 13Z-17Z.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently 08Z-20Z. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm from 12Z to 18Z Tue.
MARINE
13/726 PM.
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon, a storm system and associated cold front will move across the region. This will bring a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms to all of the coastal waters during that timeframe. Any thunderstorms that form may be capable of frequent cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds with locally higher, choppy seas, small hail, and even a waterspout. Please see the latest Marine Weather Statement (LAXMWSLOX) for further details.
For the outer waters and inner waters N of Point Sal, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level south winds are expected (60%-70% chance)
with the cold front tonight into Tuesday morning, then decreasing from the west behind the front Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Thursday increasing NW winds will likely reach SCA levels once again. Best chances south of Point Conception. Conds should then be below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, S to SW winds increasing to SCA levels are expected across the area mainly tonight into Tuesday morning as the front approaches and moves through the region. There is a 50% chance of Gale Force winds over these waters later tonight into early Tuesday. The strongest winds will be north of Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands and along the coast from Point Mugu to Point Dume. Conds should then be below SCA levels Tuesday night through Saturday night.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-342>345-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 38-88-342-344-345-348-353-355-358-362-368>375-377>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
***UPDATE***
The heavy-weight October storm has entered Monterey County and is poised to start its run through the forecast area. Some light pre frontal showers have already popped up across the 4 county area with even LAX reporting some light rain falling. The latest high rez mdl runs confirm the current forecast with frontal passage and attendant heaviest rain will occur over SLO county between 10pm and 2am; SBA county midnight to 4am; VTA county 3am to 7am and LA county from 6am to 10 am.
There has been no forecast decrease in intensity of this storm and many if not all of the recent burn areas will likely experience some form of flooding/debris flows. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all 1st and 2nd year burn scars through Tuesday afternoon.
***From Previous Discussion***
A rare and very potent storm system remains on track to affect the area tonight through tomorrow, with lingering showers possible into early Wednesday. All areas will see rain. Some areas will see short bursts of heavy rain, although it remains difficult to predict exactly where. South-facing slopes and foothills have the highest chance of seeing those heavy bursts, but they can happen anywhere.
Rainfall totals remain on target, with 0.75 and 1.50 inches common, except 2.00 to 4.00 inches in the favorable south facing slopes and anywhere those heavy bursts form. An isolated reading of 5 inches is on the table, especially over the San Gabriels where computer projections show the highest totals. Peak rainfall rates of 0.33 to 0.66 inches per hour will be common, which should be enough to cause plenty of minor road issues and heavy traffic for the Tuesday morning commute - as well as shallow debris flows impacting a few roads near a burn scar. A few lanes or offramps could be flooded. Rockslides in canyon roads are nearly certain. Isolated rates to around 1.00 inches per hour are also likely, but again not exactly sure where. Wherever those occur, impacts will be locally amplified. If they occur in an urban area, several lanes of a freeway could flood. If they occur over a burn scar, a deeper more significant debris flow would form which could cover and close a road and or threaten structures.
That is a real possibility, with the Palisades, Eaton, and southern Bridge burn scars having the highest threat.
In addition to the hydro risks, there is a significant threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing very localized but damaging winds and or a tornado. Still seeing several signatures (the trajectory of the low, the diffluence aloft, the high shear environment) for supercell thunderstorms with several high resolution models resolving finer scale parameters conducive of isolated strong downdraft winds and/or weak tornadoes (updraft helicity being one of them).
What should people do? For tonight through Tuesday: Avoid outdoor activities and stay indoors as much as possible, especially if you hear thunder, see lightning, or experience sudden wind shifts. Avoid parking near tall trees. Be ready for sudden power outages. Avoid the roads as much as possible, and if you have to drive, allow extra time as traffic will be increased due to slippery roads, low visibility, and localized flooding. If you are near a burn scar, there is a risk of significant debris flows.
Heed the advice of local officials, and expect at the very least mud and debris on some roads. Boaters, please stay in safe harbor.
For everyone, stay tuned to your local news outlet and weather.gov for any updates.
In addition, there will be a period of gusty southwest winds focused over the interior areas. Snow levels remain high (above 7,000 feet) for the majority of the precipitation, but they lower to 5,500 to 6,000 feet after the main rain later on Tuesday. So while this is not a big snow maker of a storm, any post frontal showers could be some light accumulations down to 6,000 foot elevations.
By Wednesday afternoon or evening, any linger showers should end.
Drying and warming northwest to north winds will quickly follow Wednesday Night and turn northeasterly on Thursday. Gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range are the most likely outcome. Temperatures will increase as a result, along with a warming airmass, with highs in the 70s common by Thursday.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/249 PM.
Some models are showing the northeast flow that forms on Thursday increasing some more on Friday then decreasing through Saturday.
Meanwhile high pressure will be building over the southwest.
Temperatures will continue to rise as a result, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s common Friday through the weekend.
AVIATION
14/0207Z.
At 2355Z at KLAX, there a was 4400 ft deep moist layer.
Low confidence in the TAF. A strong cold front will pass through the area and will exit LA county around noon on Tuesday (14/20Z).
Strong south winds ahead of the front will create areas of TURBC over and near to hier trrn.
Both Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as the front nears passes over every site. There is a 30 percent chc of TSTMs with the front and a 20 percent chc during the afternoon behind the front.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently 08Z-20Z. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm from 12Z to 18Z Tue. High confidence in a 10-15 kt east wind component 13Z-17Z.
KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently 08Z-20Z. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm from 12Z to 18Z Tue.
MARINE
13/726 PM.
Tonight through Tuesday afternoon, a storm system and associated cold front will move across the region. This will bring a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms to all of the coastal waters during that timeframe. Any thunderstorms that form may be capable of frequent cloud to surface lightning, gusty and erratic winds with locally higher, choppy seas, small hail, and even a waterspout. Please see the latest Marine Weather Statement (LAXMWSLOX) for further details.
For the outer waters and inner waters N of Point Sal, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level south winds are expected (60%-70% chance)
with the cold front tonight into Tuesday morning, then decreasing from the west behind the front Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Wednesday through Thursday increasing NW winds will likely reach SCA levels once again. Best chances south of Point Conception. Conds should then be below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, S to SW winds increasing to SCA levels are expected across the area mainly tonight into Tuesday morning as the front approaches and moves through the region. There is a 50% chance of Gale Force winds over these waters later tonight into early Tuesday. The strongest winds will be north of Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands and along the coast from Point Mugu to Point Dume. Conds should then be below SCA levels Tuesday night through Saturday night.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 38-342>345-351>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for zones 38-88-342-344-345-348-353-355-358-362-368>375-377>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 | 9 mi | 59 min | E 2.9G | 62°F | 29.78 | |||
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA | 20 mi | 35 min | SSE 12G | 63°F | 65°F | 29.72 | 58°F | |
46251 | 44 mi | 39 min | 64°F | 66°F | 4 ft |
Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSBA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSBA
Wind History Graph: SBA
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Southwest
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Los Angeles, CA,

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