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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 212 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..Western portion...nw winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Eastern portion...south wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.

PZZ600 212 Pm Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 22z or 2 pm pst, a 1027 mb high was 600 nm west of point conception and a 1021 mb low was over the channel islands.

FXUS66 KLOX 030355 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 755 PM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
02/435 PM.

Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through Tuesday or Wednesday with a gradual warm up. A trough pushing into the area late in the week and into next weekend will cool temperatures back to near normal, with a slight chance of showers late Thursday or Friday.

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...02/704 PM.

***UPDATE***

No major changes to the forecast. Today was sunny with sub- advisory northerly winds for wind prone mountains and southwest Santa Barbara County. The warming trend brought temperatures within a few degrees of normal across the region. Mountains, deserts, and interior valleys saw an increase of 6 to 10 degrees, while any warming at the coasts was minimal.

Tonight northerly winds will continue in like locations, but will be a notch weaker than last night. The building ridge of high pressure will slightly raise minimum temperatures. Then tomorrow as winds shift offshore, coastal areas will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming, with mid-level clouds by the late afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

Broad northerly flow will continue through Sunday with wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph across prone mountain areas and southwest Santa Barbara County. A weak Santa Ana is likely for wind prone areas Monday and Tuesday with less than a 10 percent chance of Advisory level winds.
High clouds will be on the increase through Sunday and may linger into Monday. Low clouds and fog will mostly remain off of the coast through the period, although low clouds may encroach immediate coastal areas, especially across the Central Coast Sunday into Monday with low clouds and fog also possibly developing for Interior San Luis Obispo County during this time frame. A slow but steady warming trend is expected through the period for most areas, with overnight lows in particular quite a bit warmer thanks to the increased high clouds. Widespread highs in the 70s are anticipated by Tuesday with the warmest coastal valleys possibly warming into the low 80s.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...02/1228 PM.

Forecast confidence is quite low especially Friday into the weekend, although forecast impacts from any reasonable forecast scenario should be limited. Wednesday into Thursday a fast moving weak disturbance may will probably bring an uptick in northwest winds focused across wind prone mountains and coastal areas with low clouds possibly working into the Central Coast and northern interior areas.

Guidance for Friday through the weekend shows significant differences in the timing and magnitude of a trough that will likely pass through the region. There is a 60-70 percent chance that this energy will be relatively progressive in an inside slider type of track, which would likely support at least Advisory level northerly winds across prone interior areas. Roughly 20-30 percent of guidance supports a much deeper, slower moving trough, which would at least support more widespread cloud cover and cooler conditions. This type of pattern would likely support showers or drizzle for at least some areas with mountain snow showers at higher elevations (above 5K or 6K feet). The current forecast splits the difference of these two plausible outcomes with 15-30 percent chance (highest across the Central Coast and coastal mountain slopes) of rain focused in the Thursday night to Friday evening time frame. In either case at least weak to moderate north to eventually northeast (Santa Ana)
winds are likely in the wake of the trough next weekend.

Temperatures start out a bit above normal with widespread highs in the 70s and even a smattering of low 80s possible in the warmest coastal areas Wednesday before steady cooling knocks temperatures to if not a bit below normal heading into next weekend.

AVIATION
03/0033Z.

At 2345Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate to high confidence in VFR TAFs across the area. The only exception will be a 50-60 percent chance of dense fog for KPRB between 11Z to 16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions for the 00Z TAF. A 6kt east wind component is possible after 10Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions for the 00Z TAF.

MARINE
02/753 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds continuing across PZZ673/676 and a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas, but winds are expected to remain below SCA levels. On Thursday, winds are likely to return to SCA levels across the outer waters, with the highest chances near/South of Point Conception.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. On Sunday there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level seas, highest on Wednesday, but winds will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through tonight. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 20-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Wednesday and Thursday, moderate to high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for a 40 percent chance of SCA level winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Barbara
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Sat -- 02:55 AM PST     3.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM PST     3.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:52 AM PST     4.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:59 PM PST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Sat -- 02:49 AM PST     3.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM PST     3.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:46 AM PST     4.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:54 PM PST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rincon Island, California, Tide feet

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