Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:22PM Thursday April 2, 2020 2:32 AM PDT (09:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:11AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 844 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am pdt Thursday...
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night..Western portion, W winds 15 to 25 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 5 ft dominant period 6 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft dominant period 6 seconds after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 844 Pm Pdt Wed Apr 1 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1028 mb surface high was 700 nm northwest of point conception. This high will persist through most of the week with persistent northwest flow and steep seas. Gale force winds will continue into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 020618 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1118 PM PDT Wed Apr 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. 01/637 PM.

Temperatures will be near normal and areas of overnight to morning fog are expected for coastal L.A. and Ventura Counties through the rest of the week. By Saturday night, a pacific storm system will bring clouds, rain and cooler temperatures first to northern San Luis Obispo County. Rain will spread through the rest of the region from north to south Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM (WED-SAT). 01/923 PM.

Broad troughing continues to develop over the western United States tonight. An upper-level trough centered over Oregon will dig southeast into the Intermountain Region. 1000-500 mb heights decline into late week, while 850 mb temperatures cool. A cooling trend will continue for Thursday. An eddy circulation in place near Catalina Island will regenerate tonight and strengthen onshore flow. Low clouds and fog will push into the southern coast and valleys tonight and into Thursday morning, except maybe the South Coast of Santa Barbara County where a northerly surface pressure gradient may keep marine layer induced low clouds and fog in check.

The northerly pressure gradient will continue to keep gusty northwest winds across southern Santa Barbara County late tonight. A wind advisory remains in effect for this area until 3 am tonight. Locally gusty northerly winds will continue through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across the western portion of the Antelope Valley tonight into Thursday.

No updates are planned at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Nothing too exciting in the weather for the remainder of Thu through Saturday. A little offshore trend Friday will likely reduce marine layer coverage and possibly cause a slight warm up, but then cooler again Saturday with increasing marine layer as gradients trend onshore ahead of the next trough and southeast flow over the coastal waters pushes low clouds up through srn SB County and possibly north of Pt Conception as well. There's a small chance that some light rain could fall over nrn SLO County in the afternoon as the first trough moves into northern California. Otherwise just some increasing mid and high clouds through the day.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 01/209 PM.

The next system coming into better shape now and both the EC and GFS are in much better alignment at least through early Monday. Ensemble solutions from both runs suggest a very high (almost certain) chance of rain in all areas by Sunday night, though quite likely some lighter showers developing as early as Sunday morning. The most likely time for the bulk of the precip is Sunday night through Monday morning and official pops will be weighted accordingly. The system is tapping into some moisture from an upper low much farther west over the Pacific so despite the trajectory of this system being more north/south it still has some decent moisture with it with pwats in the .75-1" range. Decent upslope flow will help enhance rain rates and amounts for south and southwest facing slopes. Amounts in the .5-1" range look reasonable at this time as an areal average, but with double that or a little more for the foothills and mountains.

There will be snow with this system, though it's not as cold as some of our previous systems. Snow levels are expected to start out around 6000' Sunday then lower to between 4500-5000' Sunday night into Monday. Given the forecast precip amounts this could be a system worthy of a winter storm watch for the LA/Ventura mountains. Will evaluate that as we get closer. Probably not an impact to the Grapevine in terms of snow but there could be a mix or rain and snow at pass level early Monday.

Confidence drops off quite a bit after Monday as the models are struggling with how fast to move the upper low which is expected to be mostly cut off from the westerlies. At the very least it will be only slowly moving east and because of this the forecast will continue to have precip chances into Wednesday and possibly beyond.

AVIATION. 02/0617Z.

At 0550Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3000 feet with a temperature of 12 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs (xcp high confidence in desert TAFs) Flight Cat transitions may be off by as much as 90 minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs at KPRB, KSBP, KSMX and KSBA 11Z-16Z,

KLAX . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN022 cigs at 13Z. There is a 30 percent chc SCT conds will not develop until 18Z. There is a 20 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc SCT conds will not develop until 17Z.

MARINE. 01/848 PM.

High confidence in the current forecat. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions (a mix of winds and/or seas) are likely through at least Saturday. Gales will persist into Thursday morning for the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Islands. These winds will generate a short period steep swell over ALL coastal waters through Saturday, peaking tonight.

SE winds will also impact the San Pedro Channel each morning through Saturday, and could locally approach 20 kt at times. A storm system is expected early next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Thursday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Rain, possibly heavy at times, and mountain snow are expected Sunday through Monday and possibly through mid week causing road hazards.



PUBLIC . Hall/MW AVIATION . Rorke MARINE . Hall SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi56 min W 1.9 G 2.9 56°F 1012.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi22 min W 14 G 18 55°F 57°F1013.1 hPa50°F
46251 44 mi32 min 58°F7 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi22 min NW 23 G 29 53°F 55°F1014.2 hPa46°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi39 minNE 1110.00 miFair53°F44°F72%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SE7SE12SE8SE8SE10SE8SE7SE5S4N14
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1 day agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SW8SE7SE8SE6SE6SE8SE7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4SE6SE10SE7S75W8SW7SE7SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.