Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday August 24, 2019 4:39 AM PDT (11:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:28AMMoonset 2:49PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 323 Am Pdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 323 Am Pdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z, or 3 am pdt, a 1020 mb surface high was centered 800 nm W of Monterey. A 1006 mb low was centered near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 241021
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
321 am pdt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis 24 258 am.

High pressure building over the next few days will allow for near normal
high temperatures today then gradually trend higher through the weekend
into early next week. Expect night through morning low clouds and patchy
fog across coastal areas and santa ynez valley through early next week.

There is a lower chance that some stratus could move into some coastal
valleys across los angeles and ventura counties.

Short term (tdy-mon) 24 258 am.

Quite a difference from yesterday at this time when low clouds
were covering all coast and valleys. In fact yesterday's high at
paso robles only reached 79 which tied the lowest high
temperature for that date. Overall is was cooler than normal for
this time of year. However, today will high temps trend 3-10
degrees warmer.

Latest fog product imagery indicated clear skies for areas N of
point conception. To the south, only random patchy low clouds were
developing along some beaches adjacent to the santa monica bay in
l.A. County and across the santa barbara south coast. The lax-dag
gradient was weaker at +2.7mb compared to +4.3mb 24 hours
earlier. Have kept patchy low clouds in the forecast for coastal
areas but should remain limited to beach cities. There is a chance
that skies could remain clear across l.A. And ventura coastal
areas. The marine layer was around 1500 ft deep at 2 am near lax.

Although the marine layer is this deep, coastal valleys should
remain sunny. The inversion is very weak however, so would not be
shocked if a few patchy low clouds developed later this morning
briefly.

Synoptically, high pressure aloft (592-594dm) will be building in
from the eastern pac and stretching across much of california and
over utah az. This NW to SE elongated high will persist over the
area through the short term (today-mon). The combination of
increasing h5 heights and continued moderate onshore flow will
cause high temps to trend up today, then more gradually on
sun mon. Highs inland should be a few degrees above normal for the
most part. Not expecting heat records. As high pressure
strengthens overhead, subsidence aloft will help to lower the
marine layer depth to between 800-1200 ft. Night through morning
low clouds should become more widespread in areal coverage tonight
across most coastal areas and the santa ynez valley. Have left
stratus out of the forecast for the la vtu county valleys, but
it's not out of the question that portions of the san gabriel
could be affected during the late night and early morning hours
through Monday. The only area expecting to reach 100 degrees will
be the antelope valley while most valleys will range from the mid
80s to mid 90s. Paso robles should be near 90. High temps will
trend up another 2-5 degrees in most locations except the salinas
river valley will heat up to the upper 90s and possibly reaching
100 at paso robles.

The latest on tropical storm ivo... As of 2 am pdt the location was
390 miles wsw of the southern tip of baja ca. Ivo will continue to
weaken as it continues to move nnw parallel to baja. Ivo is
expected to be downgraded to a tropical depression sometime late
tonight into Sunday morning as it continues to enter cooler
waters. The strong high pressure over southern cal will cause ivo
to turn west away from southern cal. The only affect for southern
california will be surf related. See the "beach discussion" below
for more details. There will be some high clouds moving across
portions of the forecast area from remnants of ivo Sunday night
into Monday.

Long term (tue-fri) 24 316 am.

High pressure will will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the extended period. With onshore gradients expected to
remain moderately strong, high temps should remain slightly above
seasonal norms through the extended period (tue-fri). Not
expecting any high cloud remnants from ivo any longer as models
keep north of the area as it gets picked up in the westerlies on
tue wed. There will continue to be night through morning low
clouds across most coastal areas and santa ynez valley through
the period, otherwise mostly clear. Maybe a slight chance for
stratus to squeeze into the san gabriel vally tue-thu.

Aviation 24 0050z.

At 2345z at klax, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 24 c.

High confidence in kpmd and kwjf tafs.

Low confidence in remainder of tafs. Low cloud arrival time could
be off by as much as 3 hours and there is a 20 percent chc of no
low clouds at any given site. Sites with MVFR CIGS fcst have a 30
percent chc of ifr cigs. Clearing time could be off by + - 2
hours.

Klax... Low confidence in taf. Low cloud arrival time could be
anytime between 07z and 11z. There is a 20 percent chc of no low
clouds at all.VFR transition could occur any time between 15z and
19z. Good confidence that there will be no east wind component
greater than 3 kt.

Kbur... Low confidence in taf. Low cloud arrival time could be
anytime between 09z and 13z. There is a 30 percent chc of no low
clouds at all.VFR transition could occur any time between 15z and
17z.

Marine 24 308 am.

For all the coastal waters, high confidence in current forecast.

Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain
below small craft advisory (sca) levels.

A large southeast to south swell from tropical storm ivo will
affect the waters Sunday through Tuesday. Swell will likely
peak between 4 and 5 feet, with a slight chance of swell peaking
between 5 and 7 feet. A swell from this direction would cause
strong surges around and inside the vulnerable harbors, especially
avalon and san pedro long beach. Large breaking waves near the
coast are also likely, which has a history of capsizing small
drifting boats.

Beaches 24 308 am.

Tropical storm ivo, currently about 300 miles wsw of cabo san
lucas, will generate a southeasterly to southerly swell which will
reach the coastal waters california Sunday and persist through
Tuesday. The peak of the swell should occur Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning with a period around 14 seconds. The peak
of the swell heights will most likely fall between 4 and 5 feet,
with a slight chance of swell heights reaching 5 to 7 feet.

Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach at least 4 to 6 feet over
south facing beaches, with a chance of peak surf reaching 6 to 8
feet especially for los angeles county, which would require a high
surf advisory.

There is a risk of some coastal flooding as well. The highest
tides will be late in the afternoon, and should reach 5.7 to 6.7
feet. If the peak swell ends up between 4 and 5 feet as expected,
flooding impacts would be mostly minor and mainly in the form of
beach erosion and minor overflow. If the swell heights ends up in
the 5 to 7 foot range, which is much less likely, more impactful
flooding would be expected for vulnerable areas like pebbly beach
in avalon and unprotected parts of the long beach peninsula.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from late tonight through
Tuesday morning for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Rorke
marine... Db
beaches... Db
synopsis... Kaplan
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi63 min N 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 1012.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi39 min W 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 66°F1012.5 hPa (-0.3)64°F
46251 44 mi39 min 68°F4 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi59 min 5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi46 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds59°F57°F93%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmE3SE43Calm6SE8S7SE7SW6W6W7W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3NE5NE5SE3SE4SE6SE12SE7SE7S75S6S4SE5SE4SE3SE4SE5--SE6SE5E4E5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5S6S46S5SE8SE6SE7SE8SE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.