Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 821 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Tue - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 821 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 900 nm west of portland, oregon and a 1003 mb low was over southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 170343 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 843 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/135 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in place at least through the weekend. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast, clearing to the beaches each afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur each afternoon and evening across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas. Some warming with earlier clearing is possible next week.

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...16/841 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today was yet another May Gray day, with overnight/morning marine layer clouds extending inland over the valleys to the lower mountain slopes. A decrease in the onshore pressure gradients resulted in better clearing today, thus high temperatures were around 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday everywhere.

Tomorrow onshore gradients for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties will decrease further, giving coasts and valleys a better chance of earlier sunshine. Highs for these areas are expected to be around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today. However, with a cooling airmass aloft, the majority of other areas will see highs 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today. Wind tomorrow will continue to be gusty out of the west across the Antelope Valley.

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

***From Previous Discussion***

Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern continues to promote strong onshore flow. Temperatures will remain 3-6 degrees below normal across coast and valley into the weekend with slow (if any) clearing. Most valley areas should see at least some clearing in the afternoon but coastal areas will struggle, especially south of Pt Conception. Some drizzle is possible each morning, especially up against the coastal foothills. Farther inland such as the Antelope Valley, mountains, and interior SLO County skies will remains clear but breezy in the afternoon (especially near the AV) with temperatures a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/157 PM.

There is growing confidence that this persistent marine layer/strong onshore flow pattern will at least temporarily take a break early next week. The NAEFS ensemble gradients agree with the deterministic model gradients in showing a much weaker onshore flow by Tuesday following the passage of a trough through the Great Basin. This would create a stronger northerly component to the winds which will promote much earlier marine layer clearing and a warming trend for coast and valleys. Current forecast for next week still on the conservative side with very little change in temperatures, but if the ensembles continues to trend this direction the forecast should indicate a warming trend to at least normal temperatures soon.

AVIATION
17/0029Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 4600 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

Moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAFs, and high confidence in desert TAFs. Expect similar conds tonight compared to last night, with widespread cig restrictions for non-desert sites. Timing of cig arrivals may be off by +/- 90 minutes from the forecast time, and timing of clearing may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 20-30% chance of little-to-no significant clearing tomorrow for coasts and valleys south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC015-OVC25 cigs may return tonight +/- 90 minutes from the forecasted time of 04Z, and there is a 30% chance that the cigs will persist through the day tomorrow. No significant easterly wind component is expected, however there is a 30% chance of the south wind component reaching 6 kt from 10Z-17Z Fri.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. OVC015-OVC25 cigs may return tonight +/- 90 minutes from the forecasted time of 05Z, and there is a 20% chance that the cigs will persist through the day tomorrow.

MARINE
16/812 PM.

Across the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
wind gusts this evening over the southern two zones (PZZ673/676, but otherwise a diminishing trend in winds is expected for Friday and Saturday. There is a 20-40% chance of SCA winds/seas over the outer waters Sun night through Tuesday.

-- highest chances in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673).
Otherwise SCA conds are not expected.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, high forecast confidence.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Tue.

Over the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate to high forecast confidence. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the western portion of the SBA Channel through late this evening, and again during the afternoon to evening hours Mon and Tue. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Santa Barbara
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Fri -- 01:07 AM PDT     1.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:31 AM PDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:49 PM PDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:30 PM PDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM PDT     Sunset
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Santa Barbara, California (2), Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Fri -- 01:04 AM PDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:26 AM PDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:45 PM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:25 PM PDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:55 PM PDT     Sunset
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Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet

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