Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 6:56PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 5:29 AM PDT (12:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 209 Am Pdt Tue Sep 22 2020
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 209 Am Pdt Tue Sep 22 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1020 mb high pressure center was located 750 nm west of point conception and a 1008 mb thermal low was over southern nevada. The pattern will not change much in the coming days. Gusty nw winds will develop over the northern outer waters this afternoon then become widespread across the entire outer waters by Wednesday evening through at least Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 221221 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 521 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. 21/844 PM.

Little change in temperature is expected through Tuesday with night and morning low clouds and fog across the coasts and lower valleys. A slight warming trend will occur Wednesday and Thursday followed by additional warm and dry conditions this weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU). 22/319 AM.

A weak trof will move across the upper half of the state this morning. By the afternoon the flow will be more zonal with slight height rises. The marine layer depth is between 1000 and 1500 feet with a weak eddy driving the clouds into the coasts and vlys south of Pt Conception. North of Pt Conception the NW flow is pushing the low clouds into the area. Weaker onshore flow this afternoon should allow for total clearing even for the Central Coast whose beach areas did not clear ydy. Max temps will change little from ydy's readings.

There will be little change in the warm and dry conditions across the interior today, resulting in another day of elevated fire weather concerns across the Bobcat Fire. The south to southeast wind flow awill bring another day smoky conditions to the Antelope Valley today, including the Palmdale and Lancaster metro areas. A wind shift to the west on Wednesday will likely begin to improve air quality over the Antelope Valley.

An upper high will quickly build in from the SW on Wednesday and hgts will rise to 592 DaM. The rising hgts along with offshore flow from the north and good offshore trends from the east (flow still onshore just weaker) will result in much less stratus coverage. The Central Coast should be cloud free as a slight east push will develop (although some clouds may move in late this evening and then leave just before dawn). Due to a weak eddy only the LA and VTA coastal areas will likely see low clouds. Higher hgts and offshore flow/trends will combine to bring 2 to 5 degrees of warming to most of the area. The Central Coast will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming although these high temps may well occur late in the morning followed by cooling through the afternoon courtesy of the cool sea breeze.

There should be enough offshore flow to keep the night low cloud free save for the southern portion of LA county which is least affected by the northerly offshore push. There will be a sundowner driven by increasing north flow esp down the Central Coast. Gusty low end advisory winds will likely develop across the SBA south coast from just west of the airport to Gaviota.

As quick as the ridge developed it will move away Thursday as a large trof pushes into the PAC NW. Hgts will fall during the day and will end up near 588 DaM. Althogh the day will start out with offshore flow onshore flow to the east will develop and accelerate through the day. The lower hgts and increased easterly onshore flow will bring 2 to 3 degrees of cooling to almost all of the area. The SBA south coast will be the exception where the north flow will bring 2 to 3 degrees of warming.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 22/343 AM.

A weak trof will move through the area on Friday. It will not affect the weather much. The cool air advection and the onshore flow should cool most areas 1 to 3 degrees. This is not a slam dunk forecast as the EC bring offshore flow to the area which would result in a warmer day (esp for the south coast). Given the trof overhead think the GFS gradient fcst is the best one.

An upper level high will build over the west coast Saturday Peak on Sunday and only relax a little Mon/Tue.

Hgts rise to 592 DaM Saturday . peak at 594 DaM Sunday then fall about 2 DaM each day Mon/Tue. The 594 DaM peak is 11 DaM greater than normal.

In addition to the high hgts there will be 1 to 2 mb of offshore flow from the north and either weak onshore flow (GFS) or weak offshore flow (EC) along the E/W axis.

Look for 2 to 3 degrees (3 to 6 Central Coast) of warming Sat followed by 3 to 6 degrees (1 to 2 Central Coast) of warming Sun. There will likely be further warming Mon and Tue despite the lower hgts due to warmer morning start and the offshore flow. Max temps will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal Sun and around 15 degree above normal next Monday and Tuesday. Record temps are possible all three days and esp Mon/Tue.

Current low temp fcsts for Sun-Tue are likely a little too cool for many areas and if these values are nudged upwards it will create heat related concerns.

This heat and wind will also bring a new round of fire weather concerns for new and existing fires. Large plume growth would likely contribute to rapid fire growth and fire behavior.

AVIATION. 22/1219Z.

At 1149Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 2600 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and KPRB. Moderate confidence in coastal and remaining valley TAFs. There is a 40% chance that KVNY will get cigs and that KBUR will not get cigs. For coastal sites, flight category changes may be off by +/- an hour.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs may drop back to IFR through 16Z. VFR transition could be as late as 20Z or as early as 18Z. Good confidence that there will be no east wind component over 4 KT.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of no cigs.

MARINE. 22/132 AM.

For the outer waters along the Central Coast, there is a 60% chance of gusty Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds redeveloping this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high confidence that winds and seas will remain below SCA level across the rest of the waters today (except a 30% chance that gusty winds will filter southward towards Point Conception). Gusty NW winds will spread southward across the rest of the outer waters by late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, and there will be a 70-80% chance of widespread SCA level winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island at that time. Moderate to high confidence that SCA level winds will continue through Friday. There is a 30-40% chance that SCA level winds may bleed into the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel Wednesday through Friday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Strong high pressure is expected to build over the West Coast Sunday and Monday. Heat stress and elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, especially on Monday.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart SYNOPSIS . EB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 2 mi54 min S 1.9 G 4.1 59°F 1015.8 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 63°F1016.2 hPa58°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi50 min NE 3.9 G 7.8 1015.7 hPa
46251 45 mi64 min 67°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi35 minN 00.25 miFog50°F50°F100%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3SE4SE4S6SW4SW75W5SW6SW4W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE5NE6E5NE6NE6NE6NE6E5E6SE6SE8S45SW7SW7W8SW7W6W4SW3CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoCalmCalmNE4NE4E5E3NE3CalmCalmCalmS4SE4SW5W7W5SW4SW7SW6W4W4CalmCalmNE3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:34 AM PDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM PDT     2.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:56 PM PDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM PDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.23.63.63.432.62.32.42.73.44.14.85.35.55.34.63.72.61.60.80.40.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:25 AM PDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM PDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:45 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 PM PDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:27 PM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.43.73.73.532.72.42.52.93.54.24.95.45.55.34.63.72.61.70.90.60.60.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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