Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/1148 AM.

No big changes to the forecast for the next week. Still expecting offshore gradients to last at least through Tuesday when the last little surge of Santa Ana winds arrive. That would be the next and final chance for any advisory level winds across LA/Ventura Counties. Otherwise, a lot more of the same weather conditions across southwest California with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.
Could see some patchy low clouds and dense fog across the southern portion of LA County Monday morning as offshore weakens briefly before increasing again Tuesday morning. Then a much bigger drop in offshore flow Wednesday morning before finally turning onshore in the afternoon for the first time since January 8 resulting in a widespread 4-8 degree drop in high temperatures for coast and valleys, but highest near the coast.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/1150 AM.

Four days of cooling is on tap for the xtnd period. The ridge that has been parked over the state will shift to put west to the east pac as dry fast moving NW flow moves in from the north. There is some disagreement on Saturday as the EC keeps the NW flow in place while the GFS tries top bring a little ridge back into Srn CA.
Hgts should fall from 578 dam Wednesday to to about 570 dam Fri possibly falling to 568 dam Saturday. At the SFC the gradients will weaken considerably and will mostly be within 1.5 mb either side of neutral.

Marine layer stratus will likely redevelop and will affect portions of the coast through the period. Aside from the low clouds, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.

The lowering hgts and lack of significant offshore flow will lead to at least a 3 day cooling trend with cst/vly max temps falling from the lower to mid 70s Wed to the mid to upper 60s on Friday.

The ensembles that were showing a small chc of rain Fri/Sat are now showing only a 10 percent or less chance of rain. Both the AI-GFS and AI-EC keep the area dry through the 27th and then show some chc of rain on the 28th and 29th.

AVIATION
18/2244Z.

At 2230Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package as VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10-15% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KPRB, KSMX, KLAX and KLGB in the 10Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a 10% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions in the 10Z-17Z time frame. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
18/955 AM.

High confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Wednesday, with moderate confidence through Thursday. Peak gusts of 15-20 knots are likely this evening through mid Monday morning for the western Channel Islands to Point Conception with just a 10 percent chance of reach SCA levels.

Localized northeast Santa Ana wind gusts 20-25 knots may occur at times Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon between Ventura and Santa Monica (and potentially out to Santa Cruz and Anacapa Islands). Highest chances (50-60% chance) exist Tuesday morning to early afternoon.

Patchy dense fog with low visibilities may continue to impact the coastal waters into next week, with highest confidence across the Outer Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.