Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...18/831 PM.

***UPDATE***

Another record breaking day today. Most calendar day records were broken, with a few March all-time records set (Palmdale, Lancaster, and Paso Robles). The heat remains on track to continue through Friday, but one wrinkle is starting to unfold. A narrow band of dense fog, currently over San Diego, is creeping northward. The SBA-SAN pressure gradient is strengthening (now at negative 1.4 milibars) which is an indication that this northward push of the fog will continue. Will that fog make it all the way into LA County, that is anyones guess as none of the models remotely depict the current fog well. It seems more likely than not that this fog will encroach at least the Long Beach area by Thursday morning. If it does, the LA beach areas will see a more noticeable drop in temperatures. The inversion is so strong however that any noticeable cooling should be confined to the coastal areas, so valleys and mountains will continue on its hot path. Updated temperatures with todays revelaed highs in mind, and to cool some of the coastal areas down south. The rest of the forecast looks on target.

***From Previous Discussion***

A 2-3mb onshore gradient trend today resulted in a 4-8 degree temperature drop from yesterday within about 5 miles of the coast. The LA/Ventura valleys and the Central Coast were little changed and the mountains and deserts were warmer. This is a common scenario when there is strong high pressure aloft but offshore gradients are weakening. Similar to what happens at the tail end of a Santa Ana event when cold air advection is shifting to the east. Forecast models are indicating little change in the diurnal pressure gradients the next few days and also little change with temperatures aloft. Unless there is movement in those parameters expect temperatures to remain very close to today's levels. Record highs today were oddly several degrees lower than the surrounding days in many locations so while records were easier to achieve today, especially closer to the coast, going forward records will be more difficult. May see some very shallow and dense fog at the beaches as early as Friday morning but more likely Saturday.

In any case, records or not, the weather message for southern California remains the same through at least Friday: Very hot with temperatures 20-30 degrees above normal. Heat advisories and extreme heat warnings remain in effect through Friday and some inland hazards may have to be extended. Temperatures Saturday are expected to fall a good 5-10 degrees as the ridge shifts into AZ/NM which in turn will create an increase in onshore flow and possible fog near the coast. Highs still 15-20 degrees above normal.

Record highs for Downtown LA this week are as follows:

Thursday: 97 in 1997 Friday: 93 in 1997 Saturday: 93 in 1931

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...18/218 PM.

After the 5-10 degree drop Saturday along with some possible coastal fog Sunday morning, temperatures begin a very slow climb back up through the middle of next week. Not expecting temperatures to be as hot as this week, but still 15-20 degrees above normal with a less than 5% chance of reaching 100 in the valleys.

As for rain chances, the GFS and EC deterministic runs are dry through the 28th, looking at their respective ensembles and ensemble AI projections, rain chances were pushed back to the 29th or 30th of March at the earliest. Even then, projections are still very light in accumulations, and not even close to significant at this time.

AVIATION
19/0657Z.

At 0507Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The surface-based inversion top was at 1100 ft with a maximum temperature of 29 C.

There is a chance of LIFR-VLIFR FG at KLGB (60%), KLAX (40%), KSMO (30%) KOXR (20%), KCMA (10%), KSBA (20%), KSMX (10%) 10-17Z Thursday. Otherwise, high confidence in VFR conditions through Thursday. Chances for LIFR/VLIFR FG increases Thursday night into Friday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of 1/4-1/2 FG BKN002 10-17Z Thursday and again after 03Z Fri, otherwise high confidence in VFR conditions and any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
18/1004 PM.

Conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through at least Thursday. There is a 30% chance for brief SCA level winds for the northernmost outer waters Thursday evening, as well as Friday evening, with chances increasing overnight Friday. Over the weekend, SCA winds are likely across the outer waters (with a 20 percent change of GAlE FORCE winds), and seas are likely to build to around 10 feet.

Dense fog will be possible tonight into Thursday morning (best chances for the southern inner waters), and again Thursday night into Friday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-343-344. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.