Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:17PM Sunday January 19, 2020 4:35 AM PST (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 201 Am Pst Sun Jan 19 2020
Today..Eastern portion, E winds 15 to 20 kt becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 201 Am Pst Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z or 1 am pst, a 1028 mb high was centered about 200 nm W of point conception, with a ridge extending to a 1044 mb high over colorado. A 1020 mb low was near long beach, with a weak trough of low pressure along the southern and central ca coast. Gusty ne winds will affect portions of the nearshore waters this morning. Otherwise, generally light winds can be expected over the coastal waters through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 191145 AAA AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 345 AM PST Sun Jan 19 2020

updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. 19/313 AM.

Dry and warmer conditions will continue today with offshore gusty winds over eastern Ventura County and northern Los Angeles County. Conditions will be cloudy and cooler early this week with a chance of light showers across the region on Tuesday, then dry and warmer weather will return for the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE). 19/242 AM.

A weak ridge is over the state with 579 DM hgts. There is about 6 mb of offshore flow from both the east and the north. There is no upper or thermal support so while there will be windy locations throughout VTA and LA county as well as portions of SLO county the bulk of the winds will be just below advisory criteria. There will, however, be local advisory level gusts in the windiest areas. Temperatures in the breezy areas are quite mild tonight with many areas reporting temps in the lower 60s. Today will start out partly cloudy but skies will soon turn mostly cloudy as a grip of high clouds just to the west of the area advects overhead. Today will be the warmest of the next 7 with many areas seeing highs in the mid 70s these temps would likely be several degrees higher if it were not for the forecast cloud cover.

Gradients trend sharply onshore Monday ahead of an advancing Pacific trof. The mostly cloudy skies will also continue. These two items will combine to drop temps 2 to 4 degrees across the coasts and vlys maybe more across portions of the Central Coast. The interior areas will not see much change.

No change in the low confidence for the forecast Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS remains dry while the EC remains wet and the NAM sits somewhere in the middle. While the EC continues to be wet it is now wet in a different way. The EC now brings in the system from the WSW and has the best pops south of Pt Conception. Looking at the system out in the Pacific this scenario does make sense and pop distribution was skewed to the new EC way of thinking. The system is also forecast to be a little quicker so the rain chance is now arriving late Monday night and then quickly leaving shortly after dawn. Another system will just graze the northern tip of SLO county during the day but it will only bring a slight chc of shower to the Hearst Castle area. The trof passage will lower hgts this, the onshore flow and the cloud cover will all conspire to make Tuesday the coolest of the next 7. Max temps will be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT). 19/313 AM.

Both the EC and the GFS agree that the area will be under a ridge with weak offshore flow during the Wed/Thu/Fri time period. It is not a very strong ridge and will allow some mid and high level clouds to drift in As a result. skies will be partly or even mostly cloudy at time. The offshore flow will prevent low clouds from forming. The ridge will not push hgts up very much esp Wed. Wed's temps will only be a touch warmer than Tuesday. Max temps will likely warm to normal on Thu and stay that way Fri.

The ridge breaks down on Saturday. Hgts lower but the offshore flow while weaker should remain. It will be a little cloudier as mid and high level clouds move out in front of the trof. Max temps will fall a couple of degrees across the board.

No change in mdl thinking for next Sunday the GFS is dry with a weak trof overhead while the EC brings a cut off low and rain to the state.

AVIATION. 19/1144Z.

At 1130Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion present.

Hi confidence in all 12Z TAFs with VFR conditions expected through tonight.

LAX . Hi confidence in the 12Z TAF with VFR conditions expected through Mon morning. Good confidence the east wind component will be 6 kt or less thru 20Z today and again 16Z-18Z Mon.

KBUR . Hi confidence in the 12Z TAF with VFR conditions expected through tonight.

MARINE. 19/159 AM.

There is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NE winds across the southern inner waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica this morning. Otherwise, SCA winds are not expected through at least Tuesday across all coastal waters.

SCA level NW winds are likely across the outer waters Wed, and there is also a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times over parts of the outer waters on Thursday.

There is high confidence that seas will reach or exceed 10 ft Tue night thru Wed across the outer waters and northern inner waters as a large, long period west to northwest swell overspreads the waters. Seas could approach 8 ft across the SBA Channel, with elevated breaking waves affecting Ventura Harbor, perhaps high enough for advisory criteria.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Sirard MARINE . Sirard SYNOPSIS . Smith/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi59 min N 2.9 G 2.9 50°F 1019 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi25 min N 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 56°F1019.1 hPa55°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi25 min E 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 58°F1018.7 hPa51°F
HRVC1 44 mi47 min 60°F 1018.8 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi35 min S 5.1 G 6 57°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.2)
46251 47 mi35 min 59°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1018.8 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair36°F33°F93%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSE54SW4SW4CalmW4W4CalmCalmNW3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3NW3W5CalmNE3E4SE6S63S6S5W5SW3CalmN3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE5CalmCalmW4CalmCalmW8SW9SW63SE6S3E6SE5E4NE9E6CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmW6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:14 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:13 AM PST     5.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM PST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:06 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:51 PM PST     3.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:30 PM PST     1.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.73.64.45.15.45.34.73.82.71.60.70.20.20.61.222.73.13.23.12.72.32

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:14 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 AM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:29 PM PST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:06 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:49 PM PST     3.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:17 PM PST     2.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.333.84.75.45.65.54.83.82.71.50.70.20.20.61.32.12.73.13.232.72.32.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.