Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:07PM Monday July 26, 2021 9:50 PM PDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 827 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu..Variable winds 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 827 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1022 mb high pressure center was located 800 nm northwest of point conception. A 1013 mb low was centered 350 nm southwest of point conception. There is a slight chance of Thunderstorms through the evening for the waters along the central coast. Any Thunderstorm could produce local gale force winds, rough seas, and dangerous lightning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 270343 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 843 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. 26/830 PM.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue winding down through the evening. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon over Los Angeles and Ventura County Mountains as well as the Antelope Valley. Above normal temperatures can be expected through the week.

SHORT TERM (MON-THU). 26/842 PM.

Easterly wave brought a significant influx of monsoonal moisture with scattered rain showers to the region. The highest rainfall totals were focused across LA county, where several stations reported between 0.10 and 0.40 inches since late last night. Any rainfall in July is quite rare for coastal/valley areas in Southwest California. In fact, downtown Los Angeles reported 0.12 inches of rain, which is a record rainfall for this date (previous record was 0.04 inches set in 2013).

With convective threat diminishing this evening, Flash Flood Watch for LA/Ventura mountains and Antelope Valley was cancelled early. While there was abundant moisture in the atmosphere today, with precipitable water values reaching 2.0 inches, there was just too much cloud coverage and subsidence behind the upper level wave for any deeper convector to develop this afternoon. Current doppler radar imagery this evening showing a band of showers continuing across San Luis Obispo county, with a few light showers elsewhere. This band of showers over San Luis Obispo county is expected to shift north of our area after midnight. Otherwise the moist lower levels of the atmosphere should allow low clouds and fog to develop across many coastal areas tonight into Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, the overall air mass will be gradually drying with precipitable water values dropping to between 1.0 and 1.4 inches by the afternoon hours, compared to values of 2.0 inches observed today. Despite the lower moisture content through the atmosphere, the 850 mb dewpoints are still expected to range between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius across interior portions of LA county. In addition, the lack of cloud coverage on Tuesday will help to better destabilize the atmosphere. 00Z NAM model continues to show best convective threat on Tuesday across the LA county mountains and Antelope Valley, due to highest moisture and best instability. In fact, 850 mb dewpoint values are still in the +10 to +12 degree Celsius range for interior LA county, while lifted index values climb to between -5 and -7 in the afternoon hours, along with K-index values in the 40 to 44 range. Also of note, are surface based CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/KG across the LA county mountains and Antelope Valley on Tuesday afternoon. If thunderstorms develop on Tuesday across the LA county mountains and Antelope Valley, the main threats would be brief heavy downpours and gusty winds, with the strongest wind gust potential in the Antelope Valley, where model soundings showing more of an inverted-v structure, along with DCAPE values approaching 1400 J/kg.

*** From previous discussion ***

Also, will need to watch the coastal and valley areas of LA county for potential shower activity as the NAM indicates some pretty instability during the day. However, at this time, think the potential for any coastal/valley showers is below mentionable levels. Otherwise, Tuesday should be a mostly clear day (after any stratus dissipates) and noticeably warmer. In fact, many areas away from the coast will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, a very benign pattern is anticipated. The marine inversion will remain quite shallow with H5 heights remaining rather high. So with continued onshore flow, stratus/fog should develop across the coastal plain and lower coastal valleys during the night and morning hours. Other than the stratus, skies should be mostly clear through the period. As for temperatures, expect inland areas to continue to exhibit a slight warming trend while temperatures across the coastal plain remain persistent or cool very slightly (based on the whims of the marine layer).

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 26/156 PM.

Overall, 12Z models continue to be in decent synoptic agreement through the period. Main synoptic features will be the upper level high over the central part of the country. High will weaken slightly this weekend and into early next week while slowly shifting to the west.

Forecast-wise, the overall pattern should be a rather typical one for the area. With the high H5 heights, the marine inversion should remain on the shallow side with stratus/fog generally confined to the coastal plain and lower coastal valleys. On Friday and Saturday, the upper level flow turns southeasterly which may allow some mid/high level moisture to move into the area. So, skies, outside the stratus, could be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Additionally, there may be enough moisture/instability to generate some isolated showers over far eastern LA county during the afternoon hours. By Sunday and Monday, the upper level high will be over the area, keeping things dry and mostly clear. As for temperatures, expect relatively persistent temperatures Friday through Sunday then some slight cooling on Monday.

AVIATION. 27/0006Z.

At 2355Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius.

Generally low confidence in the 00z TAF package. Extensive mid level cloud coverage and scattered showers continue to disrupt the marine layer this afternoon, and expecting chaotic low cloud development tonight, mainly occurring across coastal areas. Confidence in low cloud timing and ceilings remains low for tonight. The shower threat is expected to diminish by later this evening across most of the forecast area.

KLAX . Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of a shower through early evening. There is increasing confidence of low clouds forming tonight, but confidence remains low in timing and ceiling heights. East winds are expected to remain below 5 knots overnight.

KBUR . Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 10% chance of a shower through early evening. There is a 20% chance of IFR cigs after 09Z tonight.

MARINE. 26/817 PM.

There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the outer waters along the Central Coast through this evening, otherwise the threat for thunderstorms has ended. For Tuesday morning, there is about a 10% chance at most of thunderstorms over the waters nearest the Los Angeles County coast. If a thunderstorm were to develop, there could be brief gale force winds and rough seas and dangerous lightning.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across most of the coastal waters through Saturday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Monsoonal thunderstorms are possible starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.



PUBLIC . Gomberg/Thompson AVIATION . Gomberg MARINE . Sweet/Stewart SYNOPSIS . RAT/Stewart

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi75 min 64°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 11 mi41 min W 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 64°F1014.6 hPa60°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 34 mi41 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 61°F1013.7 hPa
HRVC1 44 mi81 min 59°F 1013.9 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi51 min N 11 G 12 59°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.0)
46251 46 mi55 min 68°F3 ft
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 49 mi55 min 61°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair63°F58°F84%1013.7 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi56 minSW 310.00 miFair68°F57°F69%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4CalmNW4W3CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmW7SW6W8SW9W6SW8W4SW5W7W4Calm
1 day agoSW5SW4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S6S66SW7SW8SW9W11W8W7W6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3S5S3S3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalm4S6S7SW5SW6SW8W7W7SW6W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM PDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:35 PM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM PDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.75.54.63.42.10.90-0.3-00.81.82.93.84.34.343.42.72.32.12.42.93.74.4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:01 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:46 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:39 PM PDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM PDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.75.44.63.42.10.80-0.3-00.71.82.83.74.24.343.42.82.42.32.533.84.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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