Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...08/907 PM.

***UPDATE***

High temperatures rose into the upper 70s to near 90 degrees over the valleys and interior today, with cooler 60s and 70s near the coast. Temperatures will trend warmer Tuesday, with a significant warm up Wednesday thanks to limited marine layer clouds and building high pressure. Looking at possible foggy conditions at the immediate coasts extending over the coastal waters early Wednesday morning, and warm conditions continuing into Thursday.
Minimal changes needed to the forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper level trough that has been bringing cooler weather will begin to shift east of the region over the next couple of days as a ridge of high pressure builds in from offshore. With the transition to a ridging pattern will come an increase in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, most notably across coastal valleys and interior areas. Marine influences will still be felt along the coasts through Tuesday with moderate onshore flow. Wednesday, however, the onshore LAX-DAG pressure gradient weakens dramatically which will limit marine influences and bring warming to coastal locations typically kept cool by marine air. The warmest coastal valleys will see daytime highs rising into the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. There remains a 20 percent chance of pushing into Heat Advisory territory across valleys including the southern Salinas, Santa Clarita, and western San Fernando Valleys.

Wind Advisories remain in place for northwest winds across southwestern Santa Barbara County and down the I-5 Corridor tonight into early Tuesday morning. Another period of strong northwest flow Tuesday may bring a second round of Advisory-level winds for the aforementioned areas as well as the immediate Central Coast Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...08/227 PM.

Persistent high pressure and onshore flow will keep temperatures relatively consistent over the second half of the week into the weekend. Daytime high temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Marine layer clouds will recur each morning, clearing by afternoon. Higher pressure will keep the clouds focused over the beaches and coastal plains with limited inland extent. Mid- level monsoonal moisture and instability is forecast to approach the southeast boundary of the forecast area Friday and Saturday, bringing a small (5 percent), but nonzero chance of thunderstorms over the San Gabriel mountains.

AVIATION
09/0237Z.

At 1640Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a maximum temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 20-30% chance for VFR conditions to persist for KPRB, KVNY and KBUR. Timing of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for LIFR cigs along the Central Coast.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast, there is a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight. Any east wind component is expect to be less than 6 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs do not reach the TAF site. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 20% chance of IFR cigs tonight.

MARINE
08/854 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas through Wednesday. Moderate confidence that Gales will continue over PZZ673 and PZZ676 through late tonight, as the gusts are diminishing from north to south. On Tuesday there are localized gale force gusts possible over all of the outer waters Tuesday evening, with a 30% chance that a Gale Warning will be needed. Otherwise, SCA winds are likely to persist through Wednesday night, with much weaker winds Thursday through Saturday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, SCA level wind are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, with seas near or above SCA levels. Lighter winds are likely during the morning hours, then increasing again each afternoon. Thursday through Saturday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Friday. The exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, with a SCA in effect through late Tuesday night. Winds may diminish slightly Tuesday morning but will quickly increase again to SCA levels. Light winds are then expected Wednesday through Saturday.

BEACHES
08/904 PM.

A long period south swell will move through the waters Today through Thursday, with swell height building to 3 feet nearshore.
Periods will initially be 21 seconds, decreasing to 15 seconds by Thursday. Surf is forecast to build to 3 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet along south facing shores of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. There is a chance of more widespread surf of 4 to 7 feet with larger sets, in which case a high surf advisory will be needed.

Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected due to the building surf, along with strong rip currents.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 8 AM PDT Tuesday through Thursday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PDT tonight for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).