Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...14/200 PM.

Some gusty Sundowner winds expected across southwest Santa Barbara County this evening and a wind advisory is in effect there.
Otherwise, just clear with cool temperatures overnight with lows mostly in the 40s, except 50s along the LA Coast.

Another quiet day of weather on tap Wednesday with heights slowly rising following the departure of the recent storm. Daytime temperatures will increase 1-3 degrees but otherwise not much change from today.

An upper low will take an inside track through the Great Basin Wednesday night into Thursday. Initially this will create gusty north to northeast winds through the mountains early Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind advisories for those. And some winds will filter down into the Santa Clarita Valley and northern portion of the San Fernando Valley as well as the Antelope Valley.

That inside slider system will move into Utah Friday setting up a Santa Ana wind event across LA/Ventura Counties. Deterministic gradients are on the lower side, mostly under 4mb offshore, however many of the ensembles are as much as twice that and the NAM is showing 50kt of northeast wind at 850mb. And the lower res Euro ensemble is indicating 30-50mph winds across the typical Santa Ana wind areas. Expecting to see the deterministic solutions to nudge towards the stronger ensembles over the next day or two.
So Friday should be a warm and dry day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and gusty Santa Ana winds across portions of LA/Ventura Counties.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...14/223 PM.

Friday's Santa Ana is expected to mainly be a one day event, though offshore flow will linger into Saturday. Upper support will be mostly gone as well so any left over offshore winds will be isolated and of minimal impact. Temperatures will still be climbing Saturday, with some warmer valleys reaching the upper 80s intermediate areas like Downtown LA in the low to mid 80s.
Most coastal areas will be in the upper 60s and 70s.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold and at least partially cut off upper low approaches northern California. Still another warm day inland with highs in the 80s but cooler near the coast with an earlier sea breeze arrival.

This is going to be a tricky system to forecast as models are struggling to figure out how far south it will move and at what speed. There is still a chance of rain Monday, though it could slip to as late as Tuesday or Wednesday, or miss the area all together. Cooler temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, though the rate of cooling will depend on the movement of the upper low.

AVIATION
14/1445Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Late tonight, there is a 50% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSMX, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. Timing of this potential return is low.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. For late tonight, there is a 50% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
14/112 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds, mainly south of Point Conception. For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level winds for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and across the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all areas.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).