Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...24/220 PM.

Synoptically, a 565 dam Low is exiting the region to the east and north with the pattern becoming much more zonal over the area beginning Sunday afternoon. Another Low dropping down the west coast takes a more easterly track instead of dropping down into southern Nevada with a result of a weaker gradient driving the offshore winds.

A fairly benign stretch of weather ahead in the short-term. A clearing and drying trend will continue this weekend as gradients shift to weakly offshore. Expect the strongest northeast flow to occur today. These weak offshore winds will most likely peak at 15-25 mph, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph common in the wind prone mountains and valleys. Temperatures will rise 8 to 15 degrees today compared to the last couple of days. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s are expected, with an additional few degrees of warming on Sunday.

Little change to the forecast on Monday, with slight cooling on Tuesday with weaker offshore wind.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/222 PM.

Weak northwest to northeast winds will continue Tuesday then weaken into Wednesday. This will keep temperatures largely unchanged with highs in the 70s to lower 80s most common which is right around normal for this time of the year.

The pattern will start to change around Thursday, with onshore flow returning, temperatures dropping, and low pressure forming over the West Coast. This will open the storm window over California, with a growing chance of a rain impacting the local area as early as Friday but more so for the weekend.

There is low confidence in the exact solution as the EC models bring rain earlier and then drive keep a more powerful second pulse to our south, while the GFS creates a cutoff low to our west and brings the more impactful rain into our area beginning Sunday night. The NBM averages it all out with low chances of rain beginning as early as Friday and continuing into the following week. Amounts anywhere between 0.5" and 2" seem reasonable. It is too early to comment on rainfall rates, or specific amounts at specific locations.

There is a 90+% chance for rain sometime in the Oct 30 through Nov 2 timeframe, likely lasting several hours. Halloween activities are likely to be impacted. At this point, the most likely outcome is for a moderate-level storm in terms of strength and impacts, with a low but present risk for a higher level storm.

AVIATION
24/2230Z.

At 2215Z over KLAX, there was no marine layer and no inversion.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites through the period.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
24/248 AM.

Steep seas near 10 feet will continue through early this morning for the outer waters. 15-20 knot North winds are likely nearshore this morning around Malibu, and West winds over many nearshore waters in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, high confidence in quiet conditions this weekend. Northwest winds will increase next week.
SCA conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday for the waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.