Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/1252 AM.

Hot conditions continue to affect the region, as today's highs ranged from 90s away from the coast up to 108 in the eastern Antelope Valley. Coastal highs were mainly in the 70s to 80s.
A strong upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region, expanding westward over Southern California. Much of the area lies within widespread Heat Advisories - except for the Central Coast - with an Extreme Heat Warning for the Antelope Valley. These headlines remain in effect through Monday night.
Warm overnight lows, especially over the foothills and mountains, will add to the heat impacts.

Gusty onshore winds were observed over the interior yesterday, with the Antelope Valley and Foothills gusting 30 to 40 mph.
Across SW Santa Barbara County, Sundowner winds are in the same general range. These winds will be common each late afternoon to evening or overnight period through the short term, but will likely peak this afternoon and tonight. There is a 30% chance for a low-end Wind Advisory will be possible for southwest Santa Barbara County. The chance is low enough to not issue it right now but to continue to monitor the latest guidance.

Fairly high confidence that marine layer clouds will continue to fill in the southern Central Coast, extending inland to the Santa Ynez Valley. The persistent marine layer in this area is likely responsible for cooler daytime highs there. Similar high confidence that the SBA South Coast will remain clear as northerly winds continue to affect the Santa Ynez Range. Much lower confidence further south, with minimal/short lived ceilings possible for the Ventura Coast, and a slightly better chance for the LA Coast.

Several models show ample mid-to-upper level moisture rotating around the upper level ridge and into southern California Saturday Night through Sunday Night. This moisture is from afternoon convection over Mexico, which includes a couple of weak disturbances. Fat drop light showers are possible anywhere in Los Angeles and maybe Ventura Counties during this period. The mountains and deserts have the highest chances and decided to add some slight chances for Sunday afternoon and evening. This impulse also carries a 5 to 10% chance for thunderstorms, which could be a fire ignition source.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/1252 AM.

The large area of high pressure will continue to dominate through next week. The core of the high will shift a little to the east Tuesday through Wednesday and bring a touch of relief to the heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas will see the most noticeable drop as onshore pressure gradients strengthen some and low clouds and fog will likely expand some.

The majority of the ensemble solutions show the ridge of high pressure pushing back to the west around Friday or Saturday of next week. This will likely push temperatures back up a few degrees, but the warming may be mainly focused over the mountains and interior valleys as the onshore flow changes little.
Thankfully, precipitable water values do not shoot up like they have over our last week or two of warm ups, which means the air will feel drier than it has.

AVIATION
25/0929Z.

At 09Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 3500 ft with a max temperature of 30 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday at KBUR KVNY KPMD KWJF
Chances for ceilings today and tonight
LIFR/IFR conditions at KPRB (10%) KSBP (20%) KSMX (70%) KSBA (10%) KOXR (20%) KCMA (20%)...IFR/MVFR conditions at KSMO (30%) KLAX (40%)
KLGB (60%). Winds will be similar to last 24 hours.

KLAX...40% chance of BKN008-012 10-16Z today and Sunday. High confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least Sunday with typical winds.

MARINE
25/1252 AM.

High confidence in persistently strong NW winds from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday Night. Gusts of 30-40 knots will be common each afternoon and night, bordering between strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and low-end Gale Warnings. These winds will also affect the western Santa Barbara Channel each night, and may cover enough of the channel to need a SCA. With these winds, widespread choppy or steep seas is likely.
In addition, patches of dense fog are possible anywhere through Sunday or Monday, especially off the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).