Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harkers Island, NC
May 1, 2024 8:23 AM EDT (12:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 1:25 AM Moonset 11:39 AM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 729 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Scattered showers and tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
Sun night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 729 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 011112 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 712 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level low is moving slowly east this morning, and has just now reached far western sections of ENC. Modest moisture advection and lift associated with the wave is combining with a modestly unstable airmass, supporting the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across southwestern sections of ENC. Short- term guidance has been struggling with the ongoing convection, with most of the guidance insisting the storms will weaken over the next hour or so. This hasn't been the case, and it's unclear how long the morning convection will last. Because the convection appears tied to the upper level wave, itself, and with the plume of instability extending east across much of ENC, it stands to reason that this activity will continue east through the morning. With daytime heating, instability will steadily build ahead of the wave, and there is the potential for the convection to strengthen some as it moves east. For now, though, a lack of stronger instability, plus very weak shear, is expected to keep the risk of strong/severe storms very low (<5% chance) this morning.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of a southeastward-moving weak front should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE.
Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind as the above- mentioned upper wave shifts further east. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer, directional shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-40 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases.
A couple of caveats with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today. 1) Questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low-level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm- 7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short-term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection this afternoon, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts. 2) Morning convection. It's unclear what, if any, impact the morning convection will have on the coverage/intensity this afternoon. There isn't any source of dry air to scour out the low-level moisture, so it shouldn't take much heating to realize the modest instability forecast. For now, I'll leave the afternoon forecast as-is, but it's possible the morning convection will limit how much convection occurs this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening.
In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week
- Best rain chances on Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
Thursday...A ridge building overhead will send temps well into the 80s across the coastal plain while the beaches hang back in the low 70s. The afternoon seabreeze could support the development of a few showers as it moves inland.
Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/...
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Increased TSRA risk today
- BR/FG likely tonight (60-80% chance), with IFR, or lower, conditions possible (30-50% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
SHRA and TSRA activity has been more widespread this morning than originally forecast, and the TAFs have been updated to reflect this trend. The ongoing activity will likely continue slowly east, eventually impacting PGV and EWN. It looks like the greatest TSRA risk this morning will be from OAJ to EWN. It's unclear what impact the morning TSRA will have on the afternoon TSRA potential, but for now, I'll leave the forecast as-is, and continue with a TSRA mention in the TAFs, focused in the 18-23z timeframe. Occasional low CIGs /VIS will accompany the SHRA and TSRA, with sub-VFR conditions expected at times. Once the TSRA move dissipate this evening, clearing skies and light winds are expected to lead to an increased risk of BR/FG. The potential is there for IFR/LIFR conditions to occur.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 712 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough will move through the area today. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
A weak upper level low is moving slowly east this morning, and has just now reached far western sections of ENC. Modest moisture advection and lift associated with the wave is combining with a modestly unstable airmass, supporting the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across southwestern sections of ENC. Short- term guidance has been struggling with the ongoing convection, with most of the guidance insisting the storms will weaken over the next hour or so. This hasn't been the case, and it's unclear how long the morning convection will last. Because the convection appears tied to the upper level wave, itself, and with the plume of instability extending east across much of ENC, it stands to reason that this activity will continue east through the morning. With daytime heating, instability will steadily build ahead of the wave, and there is the potential for the convection to strengthen some as it moves east. For now, though, a lack of stronger instability, plus very weak shear, is expected to keep the risk of strong/severe storms very low (<5% chance) this morning.
By this afternoon, modest moisture advection ahead of a southeastward-moving weak front should allow dewpoints to rise into the mid 60s. Heating of the moist boundary layer should support moderate instability, on the order of ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE.
Early in the afternoon, deep layer shear is forecast to be weak (~20kt). However, by mid to late afternoon, the flow aloft will become northwesterly atop a southerly SFC wind as the above- mentioned upper wave shifts further east. This will give a little curvature to the hodograph, and will lead to a modest increase in deep layer, directional shear to around 25-30kt. At face value, this type of environment is generally supportive of multicell clusters capable of gusty winds of 30-40 mph. The severe weather threat in an environment like this is low (<10% chance), but isn't zero. I suspect the "best" chance of seeing a marginally severe thunderstorm would be during the mid to late- afternoon period as the deep layer shear increases.
A couple of caveats with the thunderstorm coverage and intensity today. 1) Questionable forcing. Low-level convergence with the above- mentioned cold front is forecast to weaken with time as it approaches the coastal plain. Meanwhile, a seabreeze is expected to develop, and this may end up being the best focus of low-level convergence. Between the weakening front, the seabreeze, and some weak support with the upper level shortwave, there still appears to be a decent signal for scattered thunderstorms focused in the 12pm- 7pm timeframe. I didn't stray too far from the previous forecast regarding coverage today, but it should be noted that the lack of stronger forcing shows up in some short-term guidance with a lower coverage. I suspect the seabreeze will be the primary driver of convection this afternoon, with the surface front adding some support. The lack of stronger forcing should also help to keep the severe weather risk at bay as this will tend to lower the risk of deeper, more sustained, updrafts. 2) Morning convection. It's unclear what, if any, impact the morning convection will have on the coverage/intensity this afternoon. There isn't any source of dry air to scour out the low-level moisture, so it shouldn't take much heating to realize the modest instability forecast. For now, I'll leave the afternoon forecast as-is, but it's possible the morning convection will limit how much convection occurs this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Thunderstorm activity should be diurnally-driven, with a downward trend in coverage and intensity after 7pm this evening.
In the wake of the thunderstorms, winds will be very light, or even calm, and skies will attempt to clear out. This plus whatever rain falls today should support an increased fog potential tonight. There is some uncertainty with how much clearing will occur, but the pattern, plus model guidance, supports a risk of dense fog.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week
- Best rain chances on Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
Thursday...A ridge building overhead will send temps well into the 80s across the coastal plain while the beaches hang back in the low 70s. The afternoon seabreeze could support the development of a few showers as it moves inland.
Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.
Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week. Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-30% Monday, 15-20% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday before rebounding next week with highs expected to reach back into the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain Tuesday.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Thursday/...
As of 645 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Increased TSRA risk today
- BR/FG likely tonight (60-80% chance), with IFR, or lower, conditions possible (30-50% chance)
FORECAST DETAILS
SHRA and TSRA activity has been more widespread this morning than originally forecast, and the TAFs have been updated to reflect this trend. The ongoing activity will likely continue slowly east, eventually impacting PGV and EWN. It looks like the greatest TSRA risk this morning will be from OAJ to EWN. It's unclear what impact the morning TSRA will have on the afternoon TSRA potential, but for now, I'll leave the forecast as-is, and continue with a TSRA mention in the TAFs, focused in the 18-23z timeframe. Occasional low CIGs /VIS will accompany the SHRA and TSRA, with sub-VFR conditions expected at times. Once the TSRA move dissipate this evening, clearing skies and light winds are expected to lead to an increased risk of BR/FG. The potential is there for IFR/LIFR conditions to occur.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
A weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the ENC waters late this afternoon through tonight. Because of the weak nature of the front, I do not expect a significant northerly wind surge to develop. In fact, a weakening gradient around the front is expected to keep winds light (5-15kt) for most of the day and into tonight. Seas of 3-4 ft are forecast to slowly lay down through tonight. However, the ongoing long-period ENE swell of 3-4 ft at 12-13s hasn't been modeled as well, and seas may not lay down as quick as forecast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the central and southern waters this morning, associated with an upper level wave approaching from the west. During the afternoon hours, the thunderstorm threat will shift inland with the seabreeze, mainly impacting inland rivers and sounds. Some of those thunderstorms may work back towards the coastal waters this evening, but confidence in this is low. Once the thunderstorms dissipate, there will be an increased risk of fog. The potential exists for a period of sub 1SM visibilities during this time, and we'll monitor this in later forecasts in case a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is needed.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
FORECAST DETAILS
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds will be 5-10 kt out of the NE on Thursday but will veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday.
North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday-Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 16 mi | 84 min | WSW 8G | 68°F | 30.02 | |||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 22 mi | 66 min | WSW 5.1G | 68°F | 70°F | 29.99 | ||
| 41064 | 23 mi | 76 min | WSW 5.8G | 68°F | 67°F | 30.02 | 67°F | |
| 41159 | 23 mi | 58 min | 67°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 49 mi | 76 min | WSW 3.9G | 68°F | 67°F | 30.03 | 65°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 23 sm | 18 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 30.02 |
Cape Lookout
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EDT 3.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 01:48 PM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM EDT 3.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 07:37 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 01:48 PM EDT 3.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Lookout, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.7 |
| 1 am |
| 4 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Shell Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT 1.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:57 PM EDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT 1.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT 0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:57 PM EDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shell Point, Harkers Island, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.7 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Morehead City, NC,
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