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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 404 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am est Wednesday...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 4 to 5 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 404 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Gusty and dry conditions continue through tonight behind a back door cold front. Strong high pressure is building in from the south and west through midweek. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 282101 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 401 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions continue behind the back door cold front with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. The emergence of the high pressure will result in cold and dry conditions into Friday. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 0330 PM Tuesday...Temperatures have reached their apex in the high 40s and low 50s and will be coming down through the remainder of the afternoon as unseasonably cold air is surging into the area behind a dry, backdoor cold front. Gusty conditions will also start to lessen inland over the next couple hours, with coastal waters and OBX remaining gusty through the evening, lessening by the end of the near term period.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0330 PM Tuesday...Near record low temps are expected early morning Wednesday as the cold airmass settles across the Carolinas, near 20 degrees inland and 30s along the coast. Highs for Wednesday are only in the mid 40s and it will be very dry with min RH values near 25% inland during peak mixing in the afternoon. Winds will lessen substantially, so despite the dry conditions any fire weather risk is not discounted but certainly lower than today (Tuesday).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 0400 PM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through mid week bringing dry weather and temps well below normal. High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

Wednesday night through Thursday...A mid-level shortwave will move through Wednesday night serving to reinforce CAA and bringing a bit more high clouds across the region but otherwise the airmass will be very dry with PW values less than a quarter inch. Temps will be well below normal through Wednesday night with lows in the 20s inland and 30s along the coast. Temps moderate back to near normal on Thursday as the upper trough begins to lift nwd and sfc high pressure begins to slide offshore.

Friday through Monday...A more active pattern develops late in the week as the southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area.
Guidance a bit faster bringing precip back across the area on Friday but overall the typical timing, strength and available moisture differences remain among the models. Continue to generally follow NBM guidance but limited PoPs to chance giving the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal this period.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/
As of 0100 PM Tuesday
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period as dry high pressure builds over the area over the next several days. Gusty NW winds to 20 kt are expected through late this afternoon with winds subsiding to near calm inland overnight. Canopy of high Cirrus clouds has mostly shifted offshore, with few to scattered Cumulus clouds with bases around 5-6k ft moving into Pitt and Martin counties from the NW associated with the back door cold front. Looks too dry for any fog though the cold temps could prompt some shallow "steam" fog near bodies of water late tonight. Wednesday will bring light winds switching from the NW to SW as a surface high crosses to our south. The very dry air in place for Wednesday will keep us firmly in VFR flight categories across terminals through the short term period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 0400 PM Tuesday...High pressure dominates through much of the work week leading to quiet VFR conditions through Thursday. A more active pattern develops across the area late in the week and could see showers develop Friday with sub- VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/
As of 0400 PM Tuesday
SCA's are in effect for all of the waters today and tonight as cold advection behind a dry, backdoor front results in strong NW winds which are currently around 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Since the flow will be offshore, the shorter fetch /20 nm/ will result in the highest seas around 6 ft occurring over the outer waters. The strong winds are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt after 9Z tonight with seas subsiding to 2-5 ft by sunrise Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 0400 PM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week with a low pressure system impacting the area late in the week.

Another shortwave pushes through Wednesday night with winds briefly increasing to 10-20 kt. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt Thursday while backing to SW as the high moves offshore. Seas will build to 2-4 ft Wednesday night with a brief surge in Wly winds. A low pressure system will approach from the west late in the week and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt on Friday into Friday night with seas building to 4-7 ft. Improving conditions expected Saturday with the area between wx systems.

CLIMATE
Record Low temps for 11/29 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 23/1967 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 29/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 17/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 24/2002 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1901 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 24/2002 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

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Cape Lookout
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:49 AM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:49 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Lookout, North Carolina, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Tue -- 03:44 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:37 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:55 PM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Harkers Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,