NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1025 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft this afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming W 30 to 40 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, increasing to extremely rough after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1025 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A very strong cold front will cross the area late tonight/early Monday morning, bringing strong winds and dangerous marine conditions to all area waterways. High pressure then builds back in behind the departing front on Monday bringing fair weather back to enc though the rest of the week.

FXUS62 KILM 101508 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1008 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds through tonight. High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances could increase this weekend due to a possible storm system to the south.

UPDATE
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Only made a few tweaks to reflect latest conditions. Still expecting on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms today into tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Very active near-term period is in store as a sharpening mid-upper trough pivots across the area tonight. Warm/moist advection and convergence associated with a coastal trough will bring passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to areas mainly near and north of Cape Fear for much of the day and through this evening until a band of pre-frontal convection pushes through tonight.
Further inland, a lack of forcing will preclude much shower activity through the morning and midday timeframe. During the afternoon and going through the evening, a pre-frontal convergence zone or two will bring increasing shower coverage along with a low chance for thunderstorms, a few of which could produce locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted mainly the Cape Fear region in a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, with the remainder of the region in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) as of early this morning. These areas may be refined through the day as the environment evolves. Overall, we think the severe storm risk will remain limited given the low-level stabilization due to southerly winds off the cool Atlantic Ocean.

Going into the first half of the night, a band of convection just ahead of the front in tandem with a strong low-level jet will likely bring a period of gusty winds of 40-50 mph. In addition, the potential will exist for strong to locally damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph and possibly a tornado if a mesovortex and/or bow echo develops within the pre-frontal band of convection. The gusty winds will subside as the front and its associated rain tracks east. Unseasonably warm conditions will precede this front, with highs expected to reach the lower 70s, and some mid-70s possible inland, where somewhat more sunshine is expected. Behind the front, strong cold/dry advection will knock temps back into the low 40s, with upper 30s possible in the far western zones near and west of I-95. Skies should largely clear out by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Confidence: Moderate to High

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool, dry surface high pressure will prevail as the deep upper trough lifts off to the northeast and becomes replaced by more zonal flow. Highs should mainly be in the lower to mid 50s each day with lows generally in the 20s/30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Confidence: Moderate to High through Friday; Low to Moderate starting Friday night

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool and dry surface high pressure will prevail through at least Friday. A trough could develop offshore Friday night as well as low pressure farther to the south which could bring some showers back to the area but confidence is lower regarding these systems.
Highs should mostly below normal in the 50s until Saturday when there is a better chance of getting back to normal in the lower 60s. Low temps should stay below normal, generally in the 20s/30s.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Active TAF period with increasing shower coverage through the day bringing temporary MVFR to possibly IFR cigs/vis at times to the coastal terminals, particularly at ILM. Frontal band of heavy showers and gusty winds will affect the inland terminals this evening with a sharp wind shift and IFR to potentially LIFR cigs and vis accompanying the front. This band will approach the coastal sites around midnight LST, bringing similarly poor vis/cigs, and a brief period of SSWly LLWS as a strengthening low-level jet passes overhead. Rapid improvement will sweep from west to east behind the front with conditions returning to VFR inland by the end of the TAF period and to the coastal sites perhaps a little beyond 12Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR predominantly expected as high pressure dominates through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Deteriorating marine conditions are in store as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a coastal trough will continue to produce shower activity over the coastal waters through the day. Winds of 15-20 kts are expected outside of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms. A period of gale-force wind gusts are expected to accompany the arrival and passage of the cold front during the couple hours on either side of midnight with a sharp wind shift to westerly taking place as well. A Gale Warning has been raised to account for this. Waves will rise through the day and peak in the 6-9 ft range just ahead of the cold front , coming from the south with a period of 7-8 sec. After winds turn westerly, seas will gradually subside through the remainder of the night, although they should still be in the 4-7 ft range by sunrise on Monday.

Monday through Thursday: Moderate to high confidence this period.
Hazardous conditions are expected into Monday behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions should end later in the morning or in the early afternoon. Building high pressure will then bring fairly benign marine conditions through Wednesday before it strengthens and causes a tighter pressure gradient starting Wednesday night. The persistent N/NE winds will also lead to building seas and another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent and strengthening southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front will lead to a considerable tidal anomaly on the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. At this time, it appears the peak surge should occur during the low tide cycle around 07 UTC tonight.
However, as the tidal anomaly grows, minor flooding may occur around the time of high tide this evening.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

toggle option: (graph/table)

New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:14 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:41 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:31 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:26 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Morehead City, NC,