Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:01PM Monday December 16, 2019 2:03 AM EST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 10:58AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1254 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.
Fri..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 160522 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1222 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift off of the Southeast coast moving farther east through Monday. Increasing southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances, as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will migrate eastward and farther offshore, with center moving from GA coast this afternoon to near Bermuda by late Mon. Flow will back around becoming more SW into Monday as ridge builds to the east and trough begins to dig down across the central CONUS. Near calm winds tonight will increase out of the SW Mon into Mon night. Overall, expect a dry period with increasing clouds late Mon into Mon night and potential for fog developing tonight early Mon and again Mon night into Tues morning with increasingly warm and moist air mass.

Temps will drop off quickly tonight under ideal radiational cooling conditions but a very light return flow later on may help temps level off with most overnight lows between 40 and 45. Expect patchy to areas of fog to develop after midnight. Temps will reach into 70s Mon aftn in an increasingly warm and moist air mass with plenty of sunshine. Although clouds will increase on Mon, it should be more in the way of mid to high clouds later in the day. NAM is a bit more aggressive with clouds on Mon but hedging toward warmer guidance with fog burning off in the morning and slower increase in clouds. Thickening cloud cover and WAA Mon night will keep temps well above normal holding up closer to 60.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Main story is a cold front will be crossing the region. Boundary moves across the region swiftly late Tuesday afternoon. Some instability in the atmosphere warrants isolated thunder forecast mention. Temperatures increase ahead of the front in the lower 70s. Different weather on tap for Wednesday morning as cooler air moves in with temps dropping below freezing leading to surface lows in the middle 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Quiet weather for start of the extended period as high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will be colder than normal Wednesday through Friday. Unsettled weather possible for the end of the work week into the weekend. Model guidance has been advertising some instability and potential for the development of a coastal low.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Shallow ground fog is developing along the coast and should pose aviation concerns at ILM and CRE through 13z. Moisture is very shallow with model virtual soundings showing rapid drying only 200-300 feet above ground level. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected along the coast, with lesser potential for fog inland where a drier atmosphere exists. Visibility should rapidly improve after daybreak with VFR conditions anticipated throughout the day. Low clouds near 3000 feet AGL may develop this evening and persist overnight. Potential for sea fog will also increase tonight, with low probability of impacts at the CRE airport after 00z.

Extended Outlook . VFR to MVFR on Monday. Better chance of MVFR conditions during showers late Monday. VFR Tuesday onward.

MARINE. Expect quiet marine conditions to start but as high pressure shifts farther off the Southeast coast on Monday, deep SW flow will develop. The winds will increase out of the S-SW through late Monday into Mon night as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. Overall, expect W-SW winds 10 to 15 kts to back to the SW-S into Mon with seas 2 to 4 ft. Southerly winds will increase up to 10 to 20 kts Mon night with seas increasing up to 3 to 5 ft by late evening and reaching SCA thresholds after midnight Mon night into Tues morning. With increasing southerly stream of warm and moist air, potential for sea fog will exist, especially heading into Tues morning.

Quiet weather for start of the extended period as high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will be colder than normal Wednesday through Friday. Unsettled weather possible for the end of the work week into the weekend. Model guidance has been advertising some instability and potential for the development of a coastal low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . RGZ SHORT TERM . MCK LONG TERM . MCK AVIATION . TRA MARINE . MCK/RGZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi55 min W 7.8 G 14 62°F 67°F1022.3 hPa
41159 25 mi33 min 66°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi55 min SW 1.9 G 5.8 55°F 56°F1022.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi23 min 56°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi51 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 56°F1021.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi55 min W 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 65°F1022.4 hPa
WLON7 35 mi51 min 47°F 53°F1022.2 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi51 min Calm G 1 52°F 56°F1022.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi63 min W 2.9 G 2.9 55°F 1023 hPa (-0.4)55°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi67 minN 00.50 miFog43°F41°F93%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W5W6W7SW4SW4W3W6W6W6W9W7W8SW9SW6S4S4CalmS4SW5SW4CalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoN63N5N4NE4NW3NE3N4N8N8N7N7NE9E7NE4N3NE3NW6N5NW3NE3E4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:02 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:57 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:01 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.40.70.1-0.10.10.61.42.333.43.42.92.21.40.60.1-0.10.10.61.42.12.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:45 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:31 AM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:40 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.710.4-0-0.10.3122.83.33.432.51.710.3-0-0.10.311.92.52.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.