Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:39 AM   Moonset 6:49 PM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1131 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Rest of today - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds, becoming sw 7 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: sw 7 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. Showers and tstms likely. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. Fri night - NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1131 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.

FXUS62 KILM 071337 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 937 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected through Wednesday until a cold front moves through late in the work week bringing a better chance of rain and even some stronger storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier and cooler conditions into early next week.

UPDATE
Made some forecast changes for today to account for this rain moving through this AM. Expect this area of rain to diminish and push offshore along with the associated upper shortwave trough with mostly isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly along mesoscale boundaries due to the sea breeze, differential heating and convective outflows.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Ongoing scattered showers with isolated tstorms will be traversing roughly the northern 1/2 of the ILM CWA this morning.
This in response to the mid-level s/w trof pushing across. Will includes POPs in the low to mid chance categories specifically for this pcpn. Otherwise, the s/w trof lifts E to NE of the FA by midday taking the convection threat with it. Meanwhile, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today, lower 80s at the beaches, expect a sea breeze to develop and push not too far inland as flow aloft will become W to NW. Have indicated a low chance for convection along this sea breeze. Upper ridging to dominate later today thru tonight with associated subsidence keeping convection at bay tonight. Sfc pressure gradient should tighten-some this aftn and remain thru tonight, keeping winds active across the FA which should be enough to keep fog potential to a minimum tonight. Lows tonight to remain closer to summer-like with upper 60s to lower 70s commonplace.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The heat wave peaks on Wednesday with all places away from the immediate coast topping 90. The mid level ridge axis will be just offshore but it will still act to suppress all but isolated convection. There will be quite a bit of instability but with little to no forcing and fairly high LFC's (approaching 5kft) once again convective coverage should be minimal. The pattern starts to change on Thursday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes pushing a cold front in our direction. This will lead to a mainly late day increase in shower and storm coverage as well as possibly their intensity.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
One last day of showers and storms on Friday before front moves through and dry air arrives. Guidance is trending a bit stronger with the mid level wave driving the front possibly offering a severe weather threat. The pattern shift is complete by Saturday with the main upper trough in the East, allowing much cooler and drier air to spill into the area. Expect a weekend with seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s...much cooler than the mid week period but actually quite close to normal. A secondary cool front may push through on Monday. Any guidance showing precip with its arrival looks highly suspect.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly VFR thru the pre-dawn hrs, except inland terminals may see periodic MVFR from convection associated with a mid-level s/w trof passage thru midday. Included VCSH/VCTS unless pcpn looks imminent and requires prevailing conditions. This mid- level disturbance exits the area by early this aftn, leaving subsidence aloft in its wake. Have indicated convection along the sea breeze across the coastal terminals later this morning thru the aftn. Winds become WSW to SW 10 kt this morning and should increase 10-15 kt during the aftn/evening then only slowly diminish to 5 to 9 kt during the overnight.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating Wed into early Thu with limited/isolated convection. Threat of more widespread strong convection and periodic flight restrictions later Thu into early Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru Sat with high pressure prevailing.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Sfc high centered offshore from the SE States Coast, will get slide slightly further E and S this period. At the same time, sfc trof across the central Carolinas becomes better established while frontal systems remain across the Mid- Atlantic States. This will result in a dynamic sfc pressure pattern conducive of SW to WSW wind directions. A tightening sfc pg will also be active resulting in 10-15 kt speeds increasing to around 15 kt today, with a 15 to 20 kt range to occur tonight. Seas generally in a 2 to 4 ft range with a few 5 footers. SSE-SSW wind waves at 5 second periods to dominate with an underlying small 10+ second period Easterly swell.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Southwesterly flow typical of the warm season in place early in the period as high pressure sits off the coast. The persistence of the fetch will add swell energy to the wind waves and by Thursday we may attain SCA criteria. Cold front moves through later Friday leading to veering winds that will also abate in speed. The swell will persist but also lessen. Wind gets all the way around to the north on Saturday before backing kicks in as another weak boundary approaches from the NW.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
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New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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