Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:01PM Saturday December 14, 2019 1:40 PM EST (18:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 927 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough this afternoon. Showers likely late this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 141536 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1035 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Any lingering showers will move off to the northeast as wave of low pressure lifts away from area today. High pressure will build in from the northwest later this afternoon through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

UPDATE. Forecast on target. Just adjusted area of lingering showers and other grids just a bit. Overall expect pcp over NC to move off to the NE and drier air to work its way in from the W-SW to E-NE through today. Water levels along the Cape Fear River will be high, but should remain just below any flood risk. SCA continues across the coastal waters for strong off shore winds and increasing seas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Latest sfc analysis shows a weak wave of low pressure along stalled frontal boundary over the area. Aloft, an upr-level trough and associated potent vort max are approaching the area. After a fairly dry overnight period the last few hours, chances for shras ramp back up through daybreak from west to east as the aforementioned vort max moves in from the west. Some moderate rain again possible, but not expecting any flash flooding. Also included a slight chance of thunder due to numerous lighting strikes noted off to the SW. Otherwise, just some patchy fog early this morning before the wind kicks up with and behind the pcpn. The SPS for patchy dense fog continues until 6AM. Conditions then dry out from W to E for mid/late morning, continuing for the remainder of the day. Dry wx will continue for tonight and Sun alongside decreasing clouds as sfc high pressure builds in from the W. High temps around 60 on average across the area both today and Sun.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The short term period will be mostly one of high pressure off the southeast coast. This and a developing storm system in the Mississippi Valley will keep a warm southerly flow in place. Highs Monday will be approaching 70. The storm system and or front will be near the NC/TN border by the end of the period with an increase in clouds. There could also be some light shower activity or sea fog across the waters. Lows Tuesday morning remain on the warm side well into the 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold front will move across the area Tuesday. A rather quick hitting system with rainfall amounts of .25 to .50 possible. Beyond this a cold airmass will settle in for a couple of days of dry and cold conditions. Overnight lows will be the blustery middle 30s Wednesday followed by more conducive radiational conditions Thursday and Friday with lows below freezing moreso Thursday.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Stubborn IFR stratus will lift and scatter around TAF time. Look for gusty west winds this afternoon with falling dewpoints. Winds around 10 kts along the coast, lighter inland. A nice day in store for Sunday with VFR conditions and continued west winds.

Extended Outlook . VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday with a cold front passage. VFR Wednesday.

MARINE. A weak wave of low pressure currently tracking along a stalled frontal boundary will push off to the NE today. Behind it, CAA will increase through the day and allow for winds and seas to increase to Small Craft Advisory thresholds. The headline therefore continues as planned, ending tonight as marine conditions improve into the day Sun with sfc high pressure building in from the west. Otherwise, dense fog will continue early this morning until winds increase and a batch of rain moves in from the W later this morning.

Winds will be under transition early next week. A weak northeast flow will give way to a return south to southwesterly flow Monday and remain in place until a cold front moves across the waters overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Winds speeds during this time should be 15-20 knots max. An offshore flow will be in place Wednesday and continue through Thursday although magnitudes will be on the decrease. Regarding seas, expect 2-3 feet initially increasing to 3-6 feet during the peak of the winds Tuesday falling back in time after the front moves across.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . SHK/RGZ UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . 43 MARINE . MAS/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi93 min WSW 19 G 27 62°F 65°F999.9 hPa
41159 25 mi41 min 65°F7 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi93 min WNW 18 G 25 56°F 56°F1000.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi61 min 56°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi71 min W 9.9 G 18 57°F 56°F1000.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi93 min W 18 G 23 57°F 66°F1000.8 hPa
WLON7 35 mi71 min 58°F 53°F1001 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi71 min WSW 8 G 12 59°F 56°F999.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi41 min WSW 14 G 17 59°F 999.7 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi45 minWSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F53°F81%1000.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

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Last 24hrNE9E7NE4N3NE3NW6N5NW3NE3E4CalmCalmE3SW4SW12
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1 day agoNE14N12NE11NE11N9N9NE8N7N6N6N5N5N63N5N4NE4NW3NE3N4N8N8N7N7
2 days agoN9N9N10N10N9N7N7N6N6N8N7N7N6N8N7N6N8N6NE6NE9NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:21 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:19 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:15 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.2-0.1-0.10.41.22.12.93.53.63.32.71.80.90.3-0.1-00.41.11.92.52.82.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.