Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:04PM Thursday February 27, 2020 9:22 AM EST (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 714 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy late.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 271110 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 610 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cooler and drier air will move into the area today bringing below- normal temperatures and breezy conditions through the weekend. Warm and humid conditions return early next week with increasing rain chances by mid-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. The cold front is now well offshore and breezy west winds are advecting significantly chillier and drier air across the Carolinas. Wind gusts earlier this morning reached 38 mph in Florence, 32 mph in Myrtle Beach, and 31 mph in Wilmington. A dry atmospheric column should allow full sunshine today. Insolation will battle it out with cold advection and highs are expected to reach 52-55 degrees. Relative humidity values of 25-30 percent are expected by mid afternoon.

High pressure near the Texas Gulf coast will push a ridge axis across the Carolinas tonight. Winds will become light overnight with very good radiational cooling expected. Lows should fall to around freezing, except in the typical cold spots across pocosins and swamps of Pender, Bladen, and Brunswick counties where upper 20s are expected. This will be another night where advanced plant grow spurred by the very warm temperatures in January and early February may create problems for local agricultural interests. The ridge will shift offshore Friday and southwest winds should again become gusty during the day, with highs in the mid-upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A shortwave moving through the area on Friday night will lead to the development of widespread cloud cover, especially over NC. NW winds will increase as the shortwave moves through the area also. These two parameters will come together and keep low temperatures in the mid-30s overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited to the mid-levels and dry air near the surface will limit any precipitation although a few areas of sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Skies clear during the day on Saturday as the longwave trough overhead moves off to the east. Winds will continue into the afternoon while weakening in intensity over the area. High pressure previously stationed over the central Gulf of Mexico will slowly move overhead on Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7 days with clear skies and dry conditions. Temperatures are likely to bottom out near 30. High pressure and clear skies dominated on Sunday. High pressure moves offshore on Monday and southerly flow returns bringing with it warm, moist air. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover on Monday night and SW winds. Upper-level pattern comes in-line with with the surface winds and deep layer moisture advection should lead to increased rain chances during the day on Tuesday, especially to the north and west of the area. The apex of this upper-level ridge will push eastward on Wednesday and bring the deep-layer moisture closer to the area. This will lead to increased rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm air will surge northward on Thursday ahead of a cold front leading a developing low pressure system expected to develop over the central US. A lot will depend on the timing, intensity, and location of this low pressure system in future model runs, but the general trend seems likely. Warm and moist air returns early next week while rain chances and above-normal temperatures increase through mid-week.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are here to stick around throughout the TAF period. West-northwest winds could gust to 20-25 knots through the early afternoon before tapering off. No low-level wind shear concerns to speak of. Lighter winds tonight.

Extended Outlook . A little shortwave moving through overnight Friday into Saturday morning will lower ceilings, but still remain in VFR. Next flight restrictions should occur sometime in the middle of next week.

MARINE. The cold front is now well offshore and breezy west winds will continue throughout the day. Wind gusts reached 37 knots out at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy, 35 knots in Southport, and 27 knots at Myrtle Beach overnight. Wind speeds should begin to die down by early afternoon and the Small Craft Advisory will end at 1 PM.

High pressure centered along the Texas Gulf coast will extend a ridge axis eastward and across the Carolinas tonight. This ridge will move offshore Friday, allowing winds to back to the southwest and increase to 15-20 knots during the day. At this time it appears Small Craft Advisory conditions won't develop although sea heights will build by 1-2 feet during the day.

Upper-level shortwave will move through the area Friday night into Saturday. This will cause a surge in offshore winds speeds at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots. Seas will respond to near Small Craft Advisory levels, but largely 3-5 feet with an occasional 6. High pressure builds into the area Saturday night into Sunday and dominates the weather pattern through Monday. Increasing southerly winds develop on Monday night as the high pressure moves out to sea and warm, moist air returns to the area. Winds continue to increase through the middle of next week as the high stays stationed off to the east and low pressure develops over the central US. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop with such a consistent fetch of SSW winds. The exact timing is far from being nailed down, but look for marine conditions to begin deteriorating Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . IGB MARINE . TRA/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi75 min NW 19 G 27 51°F 63°F1012.5 hPa
41159 25 mi23 min 62°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi75 min NW 18 G 23 47°F 55°F1013.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi43 min 55°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi53 min WNW 15 G 24 47°F 53°F1013.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi75 min NW 19 G 27 59°F1011.3 hPa
WLON7 35 mi53 min 46°F 52°F1014.3 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi53 min WNW 12 G 18 47°F 54°F1012.7 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi23 min WNW 21 G 25 48°F 1012.8 hPa (+2.7)41°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi27 minWNW 17 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds47°F28°F48%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3E4E4E4S10S8E5S5S4S9
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1 day agoNW5E3W4W8
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3S8SE8S7S6S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmSW4SE3NW7S3SW4Calm
2 days agoSE83SE5SE8CalmE6SE6SE3CalmE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3SE3SE4SE6SE6S6S123

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:12 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.60.20.10.30.91.62.22.72.82.62.11.40.70.30.10.30.71.42.12.62.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.