Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 2:04 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 353 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers. Mon - NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy. Showers, mainly in the morning.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 353 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Weak disturbance brings low chances for light showers early this morning. Another weak cold front crosses the region by the end of the work week before another stronger cold front impacts the area next weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 180719 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 319 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. Rain chances increase on Friday as a cold front moves across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quiet and dry pattern as a ridge moves overhead then offshore late tonight. High pressure will center to our south while low pressure will move off the coast to our NE. Expecting plenty of sun with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. The sea breeze should limit warming at the coast with highs in the low to mid 80s. Lowered dewpoints considerably during the afternoon due to mixing of the drier air aloft. Lighter winds tonight with the cold front from the offshore low pushing through from the north. Not expecting any precip with this feature due to the dry air in place, but cloud cover should increase late tonight. Went a tad lower with lows due to the calmer winds and clear skies, lows largely in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A cold front stalled south of the area Fri morning will gradually decay through Sat night, lingering in the area as it weakens. A stronger cold front moves in from the west Fri night into Sat with the combination of low level convergence and diurnal instability leading to isolated convection Fri afternoon and evening. Although the boundaries will linger in the region Sat and Sat night, coverage of diurnal convection ends up near climatology, 30-40%. Mid-level support is lacking and there is even a hint of weak mid-level subsidence with an inversion between 850-700mb and a layer of very dry air between 700-500mb. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees above climo Fri and Fri night and about 5 degrees above climo Sat and Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A southern stream shortwave and a stalled front will lead to a period of unsettled weather across the Southeast Sun and Mon. Weak surface wave developing along the front stalled just off the coast Sun morning will gradually develop into a weak coastal low as it lifts north-northeast along the boundary late Sun into Mon. On Mon a secondary shortwave dropping in from the northwest phases with the initial wave, this may end up producing a second round of scattered showers and thunderstorms later Mon into Mon night as the cold pool aloft and associated moisture move overhead. Low confidence in rain chances on Mon given location/timing uncertainties, but something to keep an eye on. Shortwave exits Mon night with flat flow at 5h setting up in its wake. Progressive flow moves surface high overhead Tue and offshore Wed with cold front approaching from the northwest.
Highs below climo Sun-Tue return near to slightly above climo Wed with the development of return flow. Lows will be near to above climo through the long term. Worth noting the diurnal temp range Mon and Mon night could very well be under 10 degrees.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Still expecting overnight winds to keep fog formation at bay. SW winds become more W by the afternoon with a sea breeze at coastal terminals and calming after sunset.

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Sub-SCA conditions. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts during the afternoon with a turn to out of the NE at the end of the period as a cold front moves through. Seas 2-3 ft with a SW wind wave and 9 second SE swell. A weak E swell at 12-14 seconds will creep in late in the period due to an offshore low to our north.

Friday through Monday: A series of fronts affecting the waters with northerly winds Fri morning becoming southerly as a weak front to the south dissipates and the sea breeze dominates the wind field.
Southerly winds 10-15 kt set up for Sat as gradient pinches ahead of another front. Second front pushes offshore Sat night, stalling east of the waters. Northerly flow sets up behind the front then increases Sun and Mon as low pressure first develops along the front then slowly moves northeast. Northeast flow approaching 20 kt will be possible at times Sun and Mon. Fri and Sat winds under 15 kt and changeable direction will keep seas 2-3 ft. Increasing northeast flow developing by Sun builds seas to 3-4 ft, increasing to 3-5 ft Mon. Seas will be a mix of southerly swell and southerly wind wave Fri and Sat before a northeast wind wave develops and becomes dominant early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
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