Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Topsail Beach, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:23PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:04 PM EDT (23:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:23PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 654 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop late.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tstms likely. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.42, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 192248
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
648 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Dangerous daytime heat will be the main story this weekend and
early next week. An approaching cold front is expected to bring
cooling and increasing rain chances late Tuesday and Wednesday.

This front will remain just south of the area late next week,
maintaining rain chances, with seasonable daytime temperatures.

Near term through Saturday
As of 700 pm Friday... Visible satellite loops and surface obs
show the seabreeze made significant inland progress today and is
located 40-60 miles inland from the coast. Divergent low-level
winds and a slightly capped boundary layer east of the seabreeze
should keep the area dry this evening, so i've removed all
showers and t-storms from the forecast here. There is
considerable uncapped surface-based instability west of the
seabreeze, and clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms continue to
develop across the south carolina midlands and the nc
sandhills. One cluster of storms currently in laurinburg, nc
could spread east and south over the next couple of hours,
driven by expanding convective outflow boundaries within the
unstable airmass. While low-level winds are firmly southwest,
500-700 mb winds are nearly calm within the axis of a
dissipating mid-level trough aloft. This is creating near zero
net storm motion. I'm maintaining shower and t-storm chances
here focused across marlboro and robeson counties over the next
couple of hours. While chances are lesser to the south, i'm
maintaining 20-30 percent chances of showers storms into
florence as well given the potential some of the towering
cumulus between sumter and manning could continue to grow.

Little change has been made to winds or forecast lows
temperatures overnight. Discussion from 300 pm follows...

widely scattered convection is expected through the remainder
of the afternoon and into the early evening, especially for
inland areas. Any storms will dissipate during the evening with
the loss of heating. Warm moist flow around bermuda high
pressure located far offshore will promote another night of
above normal temperatures. The combination of hot temperatures
and high dewpoints will create dangerous heat conditions during
Saturday with 110f heat indices expected across the southeast nc
zones. Meanwhile, heat index values will be closer to 105f
across northeast sc zones. As a result will issue an excessive
heat warning to highlight the 110f heat indices across the nc
zones and a heat advisory for the slightly lesser values
expected across the sc zones. Widely scattered convection is
expected again, especially during Saturday afternoon with the
sea breeze and inland trough providing some focus.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... Amidst a heat wave still, so Sunday
another broiler likely with heat hazards being extended into the
second half of the weekend. Dry mid-level air this period will
tstms isolated, and maxts Sunday nearly the same as Saturday,
upper 90s to around 100 many locals. A heat warning is possible
for part of the area on Sunday, with humidity in the equation.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... 'pattern change to bring cooling' may be
one headline describing the period. Monday a hot one still, but
a strong shortwave dropping down the E face of a 4-corner
ridge, brings upper troughing while forcing a cold front to our
coast Tuesday afternoon and evening, decelerating thereafter,
hanging up along or just off the coast. This should set the
stage good rain chances, and cooler daytime highs. A few storms
could be strong late Tuesday. Rain chances peak late Tuesday and
wed. A developing wave along the front will an uptrend in pop
values late in the week.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z...VFR. An isolated storm is possible this afternoon
and evening, but coverage if any, widely separated. Ssw-w winds,
sustained 4-11 kts to persist, a few higher gusts near the
coast.

Extended outlook...VFR outside isolated tstms and patchy fog
early. Convection to increase to likely category late Tuesday,
with frontal boundary lingering through mid week maintaining
elevated rain chances.

Marine
As of 700 pm Friday... Seabreeze winds gusting to 20 kt are being
reported at wrightsville beach, southport, north myrtle beach,
and the cormp sunset beach buoy. These stronger winds should
continue for the next few hours but will begin to diminish back
toward 15 kt by late this evening and overnight. Models even
suggest a landbreeze may push offshore late tonight with
nearshore winds speeds dropping off to around 10 kt. Seas
reported by cormp and ndbc buoys are currently around 3-3.5
feet with a 5 second dominant period and little significant
change is expected overnight. I've removed showers and t-storms
from the forecast as it appears dry weather will continue behind
the seabreeze all evening. Any late night convection appears it
will remain out beyond 20 miles from shore except possibly near
cape fear. Discussion from 300 pm follows...

southwesterly flow will prevail between trough across the
inland carolinas and bermuda high pressure far offshore. Speeds
will increase diurnally as they are enhanced by a resultant sea
breeze Saturday afternoon. Choppy seas will continue as well in
the southwesterly fetch with heights of 3-4 ft common this
afternoon early evening and again by Saturday afternoon.

For Saturday night through Wednesday, summer wave-pattern to
prevail this period with ssw wind-waves and 1-2 foot ese waves
every 8-9 seconds. Tstms will become more numerous beginning
late Tuesday over the waters, as a cold front drops to the coast
and stalls, slow to dissipate completely. As a result, expect
sw winds 15 kt on average this period, with higher gusts at
times nearshore in strong land-heating. Winds may gusts to 20
kt also Monday, when the frontal pressure gradient looks
tightest. Winds shift to NE into early Wednesday as the front
makes a move farther se.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Heat advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for scz017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Excessive heat warning from noon to 8 pm edt Saturday for
ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Tra srp
short term... Mjc
long term... Mjc
aviation... 8


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 25 mi56 min WSW 18 G 23 85°F 84°F1015 hPa
41159 25 mi34 min 84°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi56 min SW 14 G 19 82°F 81°F1015.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 28 mi24 min 81°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi52 min S 15 G 19 84°F 80°F1014.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi56 min SW 16 G 19 83°F 83°F1015.6 hPa
WLON7 35 mi52 min 89°F 88°F1015.4 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 41 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 12 86°F 87°F1016.2 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 45 mi64 min SSW 13 G 17 84°F 1015.1 hPa (-2.0)79°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC21 mi68 minS 810.00 mi90°F75°F63%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S6SW7SW6SW4SW10W7SW4SW5SW4SW4SW8SW9SW6SW9SW10W9SW5SW9SW10
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2 days agoS7S4SW3S3S3S3CalmCalmSW3S3S3CalmCalmSW4SW8SW7SW7S6SW6SE9S12S13
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Fri -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:10 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.710.40.10.30.81.42.12.72.92.82.31.710.50.30.40.91.62.32.93.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Ocean City Beach (fishing pier), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.