Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:37 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1038 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Fri night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.Sat - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1038 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.

FXUS62 KILM 211327 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 927 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting Friday.

UPDATE
Clear skies from here on out. No changes to the forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure centered just north and west of the area this morning will shift a bit more southeast closer to the area tonight.
Deeper ridging and more of an easterly flow will mean slightly warmer conditions today, especially inland where the sea breeze will have a bit less influence. After morning clouds/fog burn off we expect plenty of sunshine as well. Highs should range from the mid- upper 70s along the coast to lower to mid 80s inland.

Light winds and a lack of clouds/wind will make for favorable fog conditions tonight, some of which could become dense with visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less. Lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s inland with lower to mid 60s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The ridge axis will shift offshore Wed with the center of high pressure shifting with it to our NE, winds taking on a more southerly component. This will lead to a warming trend through the period amidst quiet weather. Increased cloudiness Wed AM, particularly near the coast, due to morning stratus. Highs continue to warm from the mid 80s to near 90 Thurs, away from the coast that is due to the the sea breeze. Lows Wed night with the light onshore flow will warm into the mid-upper 60s at the coast, closer to the lower-mid 60s inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The high will push further offshore Thurs night as a shortwave and surface front approach from the west. Models are still struggling with where the front will end up, but current analysis still has it staying outside of the area, possibly stalling to our N/NW. Our unimpeded southerly flow (PWATs hovering 1.5-2") and passing shortwaves aloft will lead to unsettled weather through the long term period. Temps will be hard to pin down between rain coverage and the possible front, but aired on the warmer side of things with us hovering near 90 for now.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through most of the 12Z TAF period. Expect some restrictions from low clouds/fog until around 13Z this morning and again tonight, mainly after 06Z. IFR or worse conditions are possible but confidence is too low to mention anything worse than MVFR for now. Light N/NE winds this morning will shift to the E/SE this afternoon but mostly stay 10 kt or less.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog, mainly through Thursday morning, and showers/storms starting Friday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will slide southeast closer to the area leading to a weaker pressure gradient. Thus, slightly elevated winds this morning will diminish and stay fairly light (mostly 10 kt or less) through the rest of the period.
Significant wave heights up to 4 ft to start will also diminish to mostly 2 ft or less by late tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Sub-SCA conditions. The center of high pressure shifts N with shower/storm chances increasing Thurs night ahead of a cold front. Winds will become SW through Wed night where they'll stay during the period, increasing to 10-15 kts during the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas 1-2 ft with swells SE at 9- 10 sec and a decreasing NE swell at 7-9 sec. A 2 ft SSW wind wave at 4 sec will persist through the end of the period starting Fri.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New River Inlet
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Tue -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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