Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:43PM Monday August 19, 2019 1:19 PM PDT (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 10:00AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 855 Am Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 855 Am Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1018 mb surface high was located about 700 nm northwest of point conception. A 1008 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191823
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1123 am pdt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis 19 757 am.

Temperatures will warm to above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure moves into the area. Expect a slight cooling
trend into Sunday. Overnight and morning low clouds and fog will
diminish in coverage each day through Thursday, then will become
more widespread beginning Friday.

Short term (tdy-wed) 19 1031 am.

Onshore flow is weakening across the area this morning as high
pressure aloft over the texas panhandle is starting to build west.

Low clouds and fog are starting to clear from the coast and valley
areas this morning. Onshore flow will continue to weaken and the
marine layer will thin tonight and into Tuesday morning. The
marine layer depth near 2500 feet at klax should be cut at least
in half tonight, likely settling to around 1000 feet deep tonight.

Clouds will likely remain confined to the coast and lower valley
areas, such as the san gabriel and santa ynez valleys. A warming
trend will take shape the next several days as 500 mb heights
climb and 1000-500 mb thickness values increase through Wednesday.

***from previous discussion***
a 3 to 4 mb offshore push from the north is forecast to quickly
develop Tuesday night. There will only be weak onshore flow to the
east. Marine layer stratus will be confined to the la south coast
and the central coast. The ksba-ksmx grad peaks at -3.9 mb and
this should be enough to bring wind advisory gusts to the sba
south coast ESP west of the airport.

The mdls have changed their tune for Wednesday. The upper high is
no longer forecast to move to the west and in fact trof will be
over the north half of the state. Hgts will still be high, there
will be offshore flow from the north and minimal marine layer so
it will still be a warm day but perhaps not as warm as previously
thought.

Long term (thu-sun) 19 326 am.

Not much change on Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny with very
little in the way of low clouds. A little less offshore flow so
the coasts and vlys will cool a little. Still MAX temps will be
above normal across the interior.

The GFS and ec disagree on the Friday through Sunday forecast.

Both mdls agree that there will be some sort of weak upper high
overhead with hgts near 592 dm. The big difference is with the sfc
gradients. The GFS has mdt to strong onshore flow while the ec has
much weaker onshore flow and even some offshore flow. The gfs
solution would be cooler with more marine layer while the ec would
be warmer and clearer. The ec is the big departure from previous
so trended the fcst to the gfs.

The tropical system forecast to spin near baja Friday through
Monday is still there but it is weaker and right now does not look
like it will have much impact on la county and north. Still
tropical systems can be tricky and cannot take our eyes off of it.

Aviation 19 1822z.

At 1659z, the marine layer was around 2300 ft deep at klax. The
top of the inversion was around 2900 ft with a temp of 21c.

The marine layer depth ranged from 1400 feet on the central coast
to 2300 feet on the south coast. The marine clouds will clear all
taf sites in the next couple of hours. The marine layer depth is
expected to shrink tonight to around 1100 feet for the entire
coast. This should stop the marine clouds from pushing into the
la valley TAF sites. The desert TAF sites will continue to have
gusty winds in the afternoon.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 20% chance
that CIGS tonight will arrive as early as 06z. There is a 30%
chance that CIGS tonight will be in the MVFR category instead of
ifr.

Kbur... Low to moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance of lifr ifr CIGS after 09z tonight.

Marine 19 952 am.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small craft advisory (sca) level winds are expected
to develop this afternoon and continue through at least late tue
night, and possibly through late Thu night. There is a 30% chance
of a period where winds drop below SCA levels late Tue night and
wed morning.

For the inner waters north of pt sal, only fair confidence in
forecast beyond today. No SCA level conds are expected today.

There is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon
and evening hours Tue through thu.

For the inner waters south of point conception, SCA level conds
are not expected through fri. The exception is across western
portions of the SCA channel, where there is a 20-30% chance of sca
level NW winds this evening, and SCA level NW winds are expected
during the late afternoon through late night hours Tue and wed,

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 3
am pdt Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
Hot temperatures could lead to heat advisories for some inland
areas Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Otherwise, no significant
hazards are expected through the period.

Public... Hall rorke
aviation... Sweet db
marine... Sweet db
synopsis... Phillips
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 12 64°F 1015.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi20 min W 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 65°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi40 min 4 ft
46251 48 mi20 min 65°F2 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi27 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds69°F59°F70%1015.3 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi25 minWSW 710.00 miFair75°F55°F50%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W7W11W12W9W9W6CalmCalmE3E4E3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E9SE6SE10S7S7S8
1 day agoW8W8W7SW7W11W8W8W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3NW3CalmCalmCalmSW4W35W9
2 days agoS7SW7SW6W7W9SW6W5CalmS4CalmS3S4CalmCalmSE3E4SE5SE6S6SE5S5S44SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
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Mon -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:00 PM PDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.84.643.12.11.30.90.81.222.83.64.14.34.23.73.12.52.12.12.32.83.44

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM PDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:59 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:52 PM PDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM PDT     2.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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54.743.12.11.30.90.91.42.133.84.34.54.23.73.12.62.22.22.433.64.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.