Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 5, 2019 11:20 AM PST (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 1:31AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 745 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Today..Western portion, E to se winds 10 to 20 kt. Eastern portion, E to se winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Strongest nw portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest nw portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. S swell 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Strongest northwestern portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 18 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 17 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds. Showers likely.
Sat night..SE winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 745 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z or 7 am pst, a 979 mb low was 750 nm west of medford.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 051754 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 954 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. 05/657 AM.

Lingering moisture in place will continue cool and cloudy weather with a few showers this morning, then another storm system will move over the region between Friday and Saturday. Showers could linger into Sunday, then high pressure aloft building in should bring a warming and drying trend into next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 05/953 AM.

Lots of lingering low level moisture and light south flow will maintain plenty of clouds in place today, especially in places that are near south and southwest facing mountains. There's even been some light showers reported near Vandenberg AFB this morning and suspect that's not the only place with light precip. It's sunnier in LA County and across the interior but temps today will remain below normal despite the sunshine.

Forecast for Friday and the weekend looks drippy. Much weaker than the last couple of systems but enough to create damp conditions, especially SLO/SB Counties but likely at least a tenth or two in LA County when it's all said and done.

***From previous discussion***

A storm system near 41N and 140W will move toward the North Coast of California through late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Model solutions disagree some on the amounts of precipitation, but all GEFS/ECMWF solutions continue to suggest rainfall occurring across the area between Friday night and Saturday night as the system taps into subtropical moisture. While the GEFS solutions take a drier approach, a majority of ECMWF ensemble members continue to suggest a wetter pattern developing and have been consistent in doing so with similar amounts. In addition, the moisture source is coming in from the southwest of the region, which model solutions have traditionally not modeled too well based upon past history. PoPs have increased in the latest forecast and will likely need to be increased further. QPF values has been bumped up as well, more closely inline with a blend of NBM and WPC estimates. Generally, a quarter to half inch or rainfall should expected between Friday night and Saturday night south of Point Conception, with up to three-quarters of inch to one and one half inches north of Point Conception. Snow levels with this system will quite be high, above 6000 feet as the system's coldest air will move north of the area. A wind advisory could be added for portions of the mountains and along the Central Coast later today for tonight through Saturday or Saturday night as winds could reach advisory thresholds.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 05/310 AM.

Lingering showers should continue across the region into Sunday, especially along the northern slopes of the mountains as a shortwave trough dives south in the broader trough circulation. There is a chance that gusty northerly winds could develop through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County on Sunday night.

Models continue to offer a warming and drying trend for the early-to-middle part of next week as high pressure builds in. Temperatures have been nudged a tad higher between Tuesday and next Thursday.

AVIATION. 05/1638Z.

At 1630Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX. However, there was a deep moist layer up to 10000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. For sites north of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs this afternoon. For tonight, moderate confidence in development of MVFR CIGs after 03Z, but low confidence in timing.

For sites south of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z. No significant easterly wind component is anticipated.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z.

MARINE. 05/838 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level southeast winds and seas developing tonight and continuing into Saturday evening. There is a 60% chance of winds reaching Gale force Friday and Friday night across PZZ670/673. So, a GALE WATCH remains in effect for the two northern zones. On Sunday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ673/676.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas increasing to SCA levels on Friday and continuing through Saturday evening. There is a 50% chance of Gale force winds on Friday, So, a GALE WATCH remains in effect. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For PZZ650, there is a 60% chance of SCA level southeast winds Friday through Saturday with a 50% chance of SCA level northwest winds on Sunday. For PZZ655, there is a 40% chance of SCA level southeast winds on Friday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Monday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Strong rip currents and high surf are possible at area beaches over the weekend.



PUBLIC . MW/Hall AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RAT SYNOPSIS . JLL

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi44 min ESE 5.1 G 7 61°F 1021.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi30 min ESE 9.7 G 16 60°F 60°F3 ft1021.3 hPa59°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi30 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 59°F 60°F6 ft1020.4 hPa53°F
46251 48 mi50 min 60°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi27 minE 710.00 miOvercast62°F53°F73%1020.7 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi25 minE 15 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F50°F72%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE9SE9SE10SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E8E9E6NE4NE4NE5NE4NE6E4E6E8E7
1 day agoCalmW6E3CalmSE3SE4N3SE3NE6E7E9E7E4E10SE9E15
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2 days ago--------S4CalmCalmCalmE5W3E3N4CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM PST     4.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM PST     2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:02 PM PST     3.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:11 PM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.73.54.14.54.54.23.73.12.62.32.22.32.73.13.43.63.432.51.91.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:38 AM PST     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:52 AM PST     2.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:24 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:04 PM PST     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:16 PM PST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.422.73.54.14.54.54.33.83.22.72.42.32.42.83.13.53.63.53.12.621.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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