Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:37PM Thursday April 22, 2021 6:58 PM PDT (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:53AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 223 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Tonight..W winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 6 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain likely.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 223 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z, or 2 pm pdt, a 1026 mb high pressure center was located 700 nm W of point conception and a 1003 mb low was near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 230003 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 503 PM PDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. 22/158 PM.

Weak high pressure will develop Friday and Saturday for warmer temperatures inland. However, a strong onshore flow will continue and keep temperatures cooler near the coast. Low clouds will continue to push into the valleys each night, clearing to near the beaches in the afternoon. A weak storm system could bring rain and mountain snow to the area between Sunday and early Monday. A warming trend is expected for the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 22/152 PM.

Deep marine layer continues today with tops 4000-5000 ft in the south and around 3000' in the north. And again another reverse clearing day so there's better sunshine over the coastal waters around the Channel Islands than for the mainland coast/valley areas.

The low pressure systems that have created this cool/cloudy pattern are moving east and will be replaced by a weak high pressure ridge Fri/Sat. This will lower the inversion as warmer air moves in aloft, but not by much as forecast soundings still show a marine layer depth of around 2000' in the north and 3000-3500' in the south. So expect a pretty solid cloud coverage tonight, just not quite as far up the lower coastal slopes. And clearing tomorrow should be more typical, clearing from inland areas to near the coast. But with a 9mb onshore flow each of the next two days it's possible a lot of beach areas will remain socked in all day. Temps will warm up, but mainly just inland and more so for elevated areas where the marine layer has been keeping it cooler the last few days.

A relatively weak system will move through the area Sunday into Monday with rain likely in most areas by Sunday evening, and as early as Sunday morning in northern SLO County. Today's ECMWF run was a quite a bit less robust with the rain amounts and even a few members showing little to no rain getting to LA County. Meanwhile the GFS has also scaled back from the last day or so. Still seems like a solid chance for rain most areas and will keep going with model blend pops which still have us in the categorical territory (>75%) for rain chances. Looks like the issue remains the speed of the front with more members now supporting a faster track through our area and thus lower rain totals. The lack of southerly flow will also limit rain amounts, especially southern areas. Overall a very low impact event even if the earlier solutions with slightly higher amounts come to fruition. Some light snow accumulations possible in the mountains, mainly above 6000'.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 22/152 PM.

Some lingering showers possible Monday in southern areas but current models favoring a faster speed with most of the precip finishing up before sunrise. High pressure develops rapidly behind it with weakening onshore flow and a warming trend through mid week. The ECMWF even has a light offshore flow Wed/Thu which if true could help push temps into the 90s by Wednesday for some of warmer valleys and mid to high 80s for inland coastal regions of LA/Ventura Counties.

AVIATION. 22/2357Z.

At 2200Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 1200 feet. The top of the inversion was 6000 feet with a temperature of 9 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF package. Expect near repeat low cloud cover tonight and Friday with MVFR to VFR CIGs at all coastal/valley sites. Lower confidence in arrival time of CIGs. For Friday afternoon, many sites may retain BKN VFR cigs, with generally a 30% chance any site will have clouds scatter out.

For the desert TAFs, CAVU conditions will continue through the period. Gusty westerly winds will persist through late in the evening, and resume again Friday afternoon.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR cigs are expected through 13Z, with cigs lifting to VFR after that time. The timing of this change is lower confidence. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of change from MVFR to VFR CIGs is lower confidence.

MARINE. 22/141 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds this afternoon and evening, depending on the frequency of wind gusts to 25 kt. For now, just expecting occasional gusts to 25 kt from Point Conception to just west of the Channel Islands. On Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Saturday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ673/676. On Sunday, winds will diminish below SCA levels. However on Monday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds across all the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. On Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Sunday. On Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

BEACHES. 22/128 PM.

The first south swell of the Spring season is expected to arrive Friday morning and will continue through the weekend. The swell heights will be in the neighborhood of 3 to 4 feet, and along with periods of 18-20 seconds should produce breakers of 3 to 6 feet, highest on south facing beaches. There may be local max sets to 7 feet.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 2 AM PDT Friday through Sunday morning for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Light snow accumulations in the mountains could create driving hazards Sunday night into early Monday.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . Smith MARINE . Sweet BEACHES . Sweet SYNOPSIS . MW

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi83 min WSW 9.9 G 14 58°F 1013.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi39 min W 18 G 21 54°F 56°F1014 hPa50°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 43 mi39 min WNW 18 G 21 1014.4 hPa
46251 48 mi63 min 60°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi66 minWSW 1010.00 miFair59°F48°F67%1013.3 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi64 minW 1110.00 miFair59°F45°F59%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6CalmE9NE5E4E5E5NE6NE4NE5NE4NE4CalmE5E3CalmS7S8W8W8W10SW11W9W10
1 day agoS7CalmW3NE5NW4NE7CalmE3NW4W4CalmCalmW3Calm5SW8W106SW6SW7SW7W9W7SW6
2 days agoSE7SE6SE11E3E3E5NE5NE5NE5NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmSE7SE11SE11S8S8SE7SE7SE7SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM PDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:20 PM PDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:48 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:02 PM PDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.32.533.64.24.54.43.93.12.11.10.2-0.2-0.10.51.42.43.444.34.13.52.8

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM PDT     2.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:25 PM PDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:48 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:01 PM PDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.32.52.93.544.44.443.22.21.20.3-0.1-0.10.51.42.43.44.14.34.13.62.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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