Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:26PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 12:10 PM PDT (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 903 Am Pdt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ600 903 Am Pdt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 1016 mb low was about 200 nm W of point conception. This storm system will affect the coastal waters through Thursday and will bring a slight chance of Thunderstorms over all the waters this afternoon through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 071758 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1058 AM PDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. 07/754 AM.

Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through Thursday with some snow on the major passes mainly during the early morning hours through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through Wednesday including across the coastal waters. Conditions will be dry and warmer on Friday and through the weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU). 07/923 AM.

The center of this cutoff low is currently about 300mi west of Pt Conception, though water vapor imagery is picking up on several small vortices rotating around the western half. This is a very tricky forecast as models have, not surprisingly, struggled with the movement and even slight errors can have significant forecast ramifications. 12z models continue to indicate an increasing chance of rain from the southeast this afternoon and evening, then rotating counterclockwise into SLO and nrn SB Counties tonight. The lowest rain chances will be in srn SB and Ventura counties, though certainly not zero. Low confidence in this forecast but will stay the course for now.

There's been some lightning activity with the convection in the southwest portion of the upper low 600 mi southwest of LAX but it seems extremely unlikely we'll see any convective activity at least over land areas today. Possibly way out over the outer coastal waters. The NAM shows some negative LI's and decent lapse rates aloft over the area tonight but forecast soundings have very little CAPE. In any case don't think thunderstorms will be much of a factor, if any.

Radar based snow levels between 5000-6000' this morning and this seems to match up well with observations. As precip chances increase later today expect snow to be confined to elevations above 5000' with no snow impacts to the Grapevine. And unless the upper low moves closer to the area than models currently indicate snow levels should stay at or above 5000' the next couple days so the chances for Grapevine impacts at this point are low.

***From previous discussion***

All mdls agree that from later Wednesday morning through Thursday the upper level flow will switch from the SW to the NE or N as the upper low tracks to the east. This will shift the focus of the precipitation from the coasts and vlys to the mtns and the interior. The csts/vlys will likely only see scattered showers and .10-.25 additional rainfall (xcp up to a half inch across the San Gabriel Vly). The interior from the Cuyama Vly the to Antelope Vly including the northern sections of the SBA/VTA/LA mtns will likely recieve a .50-1.00 inches of additional rain. A slight chc of TSTMs will persist as well again more dynamically driven than instability driven. The mtns will continue to see impressive snowfall amounts. Snow levels will remain around 5500 feet and another 5 to 10 inches of new snow is possible during this period with the greatest amounts falling above 7000 ft over the eastern San Gabriels

Max temps will fall a couple of degrees each day as the lows path brings lower hgts to the area in addition to the cloudy skies and showers. By Thursday the coasts and vlys will only see max temps a degree or two either side of 60 which is 8 to 12 degrees blo normal for most sites.

Both the NAM and the GFS agree that the upper low move to the east Thursday evening leaving only a slight chc of showers over eastern LA county interior and mtns. But the latest EC retrogrades the upper low back to the west and directly over VTA county which keeps all of the forecast activity going over night for all of the area. Given the oddness of this upper low cannot rule out that is the right soln so will keep some chc of rain in the fcst.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 07/312 AM.

Low confidence in the Friday forecast. The EC keeps the low over the forecast area along with a chc of showers. The GFS is more progressive keeps both the low and the showers to the east. The EC soln is a new one and is not greatly supported by the ensemble members so will, for now, keep the forecast dry. Skies will likely be partly cloudy but might turn out to be a little sunnier (with a smaller chc of a little cloudier if the EC verifies.) There will likely be several degrees of warming across the board (again less so if the EC comes true) but max temps will still remain blo normal.

Very weak ridging will nose in from the East Pac on Saturday. The airmass will still be rather cool and max temps will not rise much at all.

Dry NW slightly cyclonic flow set up over the state for Sunday and Monday. Skies will be mostly clear or partly cloudy through the period depending on how much mid level clouds are drifting overhead. There will be a little bit of warming on Sunday and then little change in temps for Monday.

AVIATION. 07/1757Z.

At 18Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Low to moderate confidence in the forecast. Showers are possible over the region by this afternoon. The best chance for showers will be for LA County sites. Low confidence on timing of showers and potential flight category changes. MVFR conditions are most likely during periods of rain, but IFR conditions are possible in heavier showers. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms for all sites starting this afternoon.

KLAX . Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of a shower early this morning, with increasing probability by late morning. MVFR conditions will be likely during periods of rain, with a 40% chance of IFR conditions, especially in heavier showers. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High confidence in an east wind component remaining below 6 kt.

KBUR . Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of a shower early this morning, but better probability by this afternoon. MVFR conditions will be likely with periods of rain, with a 40% chance of IFR conditions, especially in heavier showers. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

MARINE. 07/913 AM.

High confidence that winds and seas will remain below SCA level through the forecast period.

Isolated TSTMs will be possible across most of the coastal waters this afternoon and evening, then mainly confined to the southern waters on Wednesday. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, small hail, rough seas, and possibly waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday for zone 52. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for zones 53-54. (See LAXWSWLOX). PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Shower activity along with a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday. Snow levels will be near 5500 ft. The weather is forecast to be non-hazardous starting Friday.



PUBLIC . MW/Rorke AVIATION . Sweet/Stewart MARINE . Sweet/Stewart SYNOPSIS . Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi94 min SW 6 G 8 56°F 1018.5 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi30 min W 1.9 G 3.9 56°F 57°F1018.8 hPa49°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 44 mi30 min WNW 1.9 G 5.8 55°F 56°F1018.8 hPa40°F
46251 48 mi40 min 60°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi77 minVar 510.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F43°F56%1018.2 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi75 minSW 410.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW94W8SW8W9W5W7W4NW4N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm54
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CalmCalmSE6SE9NW5W3CalmN3W6SW7SW7S7
2 days agoS7W10SW10SW10SW7W7W3SE7E9E6NE4CalmCalmW3W4W5W8SW3SW4SW6S6S8
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM PDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:48 AM PDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:59 PM PDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:35 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:14 PM PDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.310.20.10.61.734.35.25.44.93.82.41.10.1-0.30.11.12.53.95.15.65.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM PDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:51 AM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:01 PM PDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:14 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:35 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:12 PM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.20.9-0-0.20.41.534.35.35.55.13.92.51-0-0.4-0.112.545.25.85.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.