Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surf City, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 9:06 PM EDT (01:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 10:55AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 640 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 640 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore through the end of the week. A cold front then drops southward and stalls in the vicinity of area waters this upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surf City, NC
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location: 34.45, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220029
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
829 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Isolated showers and thunderstorms, will likely become more
numerous in the days ahead, as a front approaches the coast
late week, and stalls into the weekend. The increases in clouds
and rain chances, should bring cooler daytime temperatures this
weekend and early next week.

Update
No earth-shaking changes made to the forecast, only tweaks to
pop values into the overnight period.

Near term through Thursday night
Low-level water vapor and mosaic radar overlays show outflow
intrusion could spark a shower or TSTM from red springs to
elizabethtown, particularly as the remnant sea breeze boundary
slips beneath the line of convection over central nc dropping
ese presently. Outflows could still spark convection near and
west of i-95.

Guidance continues to indicate another round of shras tstms
Thursday aftn, and handled this with a 30% over all inland
locations as there's quite a bit of spread as to what areas
receive rainfall. No severe weather or flooding anticipated.

High temps will range from the upr 80s at the coast to then
low mid 90s inland, with heat indices peaking in the 100-104 deg
range. Typical nocturnal decrease of precip then into Thursday
night, with low temps in the mid 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Elongated mid-level ridging over the southern CONUS will be
suppressed by 5h trough moving across the great lakes and the
northeast late in the week. Bermuda high and piedmont trough tandem
will once again lead to diurnal convection fri. However, coverage
may actually start to increase Fri night into Sat as a slow moving
cold front drops into the area. Front is being pushed south by the
5h trough passing to the north. Shallow nature of the mid-level
trough means the front arrives with minimal push and ends up
stalling in the region sat. Deep moisture and the stalled front sat
and Sat night help ramp up shower and thunderstorm coverage as the
week ends. Coverage will decrease somewhat Sat night with the loss
of heating, but low level convergence and development of weak wave
along the stalled front will keep convection going overnight.

Temperatures above to well above climo Fri and Fri night will run
closer to climo on Sat due to an increase in both clouds and
coverage of convection. Lows Sat night end up a little above climo.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Flat mid level pattern next week keeps the stalled front in the area
sun into Mon before high to the north helps push it southeast. Weak
surface wave starts to develop over or just off the coast of the
southeast Mon into tue. The weak low then drifts northeast, but
confidence in its movement is low. Regardless of the location of the
low it appears first half of next week will be marked by an extended
period of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.

-deep moisture, surface boundary, and heating will generate
widespread showers and thunderstorms Sun and mon.

-flooding potential increases Sun and Mon with storm motion
under 5 kt and warm cloud layer around 14k ft.

-rainfall chances decrease Tue and Wed as the boundary moves
farther offshore and mid-level dry air increases.

-highs slightly below climo Sun will be near climo mon-wed with
lows above climo through wed.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
PredominantlyVFR this TAF period as typical summertime pattern
continues. Outside of a possible stray shower or two this
evening, mostly clear skies through tomorrow morning with a few
passing high clouds. Scattered cumulus tomorrow afternoon, with
chance of summertime thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon. No
fog concerns this TAF period with elevated s-sw winds due to
tightened pressure gradient across the area. Winds 5-10 kts
overnight, increasing to around 10 kts tomorrow afternoon with
enhanced winds at coastal sites with sea breeze.

Extended... MainlyVFR thru Fri with brief MVFR ifr periods each
day due to aftn evening convection and fog and or stratus
around daybreak. A cold front will drop south and stall across
the region late Fri thru mon. This will lead to an increase in
tsra coverage with MVFR ifr conditions possible at any time of
the day or night.

Marine
Sub-small craft advisory conditions continue this week with bermuda
high pressure offshore and a typical piedmont trough inland. Expect
s SW winds of 10-15 kt, up to 15-20 kt during the evening hours.

Seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft over nc area waters. This will
mainly consist of a 4-5 second ssw 2-3 ft wind wave and a 10 second
se 1-2 ft swell.

Bermuda high will maintain 10 to 15 kt southwest flow Fri into fri
night. A cold front arrives early Sat with wind field becoming light
and variable Sat into sun. Front pushes a little farther south sun
with northeast flow around 10 kt setting up. Northeast flow around
10 kt continues Mon as weak high pressure builds in from the north.

Seas around 3 ft Fri drop closer to 2 ft Sat and Sun before
northeast flow builds seas closer to 3 ft on mon. Southwest wind
wave around 5 seconds weakens Sat Sun as southeast swell around 9
seconds starts to become more noticeable. Northeast wind wave may
start to develop on mon, depends how quickly the front pushes south
and how strong northeast flow ends up.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
update... Mjc
near term... Mas 8
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Vao
marine... Iii mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi66 min SSW 19 G 22 84°F 84°F1016.7 hPa (+0.4)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi58 min SW 18 G 23 83°F 84°F1016.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 24 mi56 min 84°F4 ft
WLON7 29 mi66 min 83°F 86°F1017.3 hPa (+0.4)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi58 min WSW 18 G 25 81°F 84°F1017.2 hPa
41064 34 mi58 min WSW 18 G 21 83°F 84°F1017.1 hPa
41159 34 mi36 min 84°F4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 48 mi66 min SSW 13 G 18 83°F 86°F1017.8 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC18 mi70 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F75°F77%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW3SW4SW4SW3S4S4SW4SW3S4S5S6SW9SW11SW8
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1 day agoS7CalmCalmSW3S3SW5SW4W4SW4W4W3W4W6SW6W5SW6SW5W7SW6S8S10S8S5SW4
2 days agoS5SW5SW4SW3SW5SW6W7SW7SW6W4CalmW3SW5NW4E3E6S9SE11S7S11S8S10S6N13

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:10 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.82.41.81.30.80.50.50.91.62.433.33.22.92.41.81.20.90.70.81.31.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:06 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.82.21.610.60.50.71.31.92.63.13.33.22.72.11.510.70.71.11.62.22.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.