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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 237 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 237 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 22z or 2 pm pst, a 1025 mb was located 700 nm west of los angeles, and a 1011 mb low was located south of arizona.

FXUS66 KLOX 102243 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 243 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
10/129 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of the week with above normal high temperatures. The dry air, however, will allow colder than normal overnight lows in wind sheltered areas. Moderate Santa Ana winds may return Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...10/157 PM.

Santa Anas are winding down as a high pressure ridge moves in from the Pacific and gradients and winds aloft relax. Light offshore flow expected to remain Monday with some northeast breezes in the morning but otherwise just slightly cooler in most areas with some increasing high clouds.

Light offshore or very slightly onshore flow will continue through Tuesday with cooler but still above normal temps.

Models continue to indicate an inside slider trough dropping south through NV later Tuesday with a return to light to moderate offshore flow returning. However, pressure gradients remain on the lighter side, especially from the deterministic runs. The NAEFS solutions are a little stronger but still only in the -4 to -5 range. In addition, EPS solutions show very little wind at the usual windier spots so at this time the chances for any impactful northeast winds are on the lower side. Models do show some northeast flow aloft but peaking at only around 30kt at 850mb. So despite the favorable upper air pattern this next offshore event appears like it will be lighter and much less impactful than this most recent event. Humidities will remain on the lower side so with no marine layer and good radiational cooling overnight look for chilly morning temps, especially in the interior valleys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/210 PM.

Light to moderate offshore flow expected to continue through next Sunday but without any upper support winds are expected to be below advisory levels. High pressure will follow the inside slider bringing warmer temperatures to the region with low humidities.
Highs will be 5-10 above normal through the period, though overnight lows will be chilly, especially in wind protected locations.

The next storm system on the horizon looks to be another tricky cut off low situation. Models at one time had been indicating a trough with decent moisture moving through the area over next weekend but more recent ensemble solutions have trended much slower with the arrival as ridging develops over western North America and stalls the eastward propagation of the trough near 140w, or roughly 1000nm west of Pt Conception. The official NBM forecast still has 15-30 pops across the area next Sunday but that's just factoring in some previous faster moving model solutions that are now much less in favor. So while rain chances from this system still look good, the much more likely arrival day now is into the following week, between Monday and Wednesday (Dec 18-20).

AVIATION
10/1812Z.

At 1737Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Mostly clear skies and no vsby concerns for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in timing of wind changes. Light to moderate turbulence and LLWS are possible, particularly across the mountains and foothills this morning.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. High confidence that any east wind component will be below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE
10/243 PM.

In the Outer Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru much of tonight. For the northern outer waters (PZZ670), SCA level NW winds are expected late tonight thru late Mon night, with a 40% chance of SCA level NW winds Tue into Tue night. A bit further south (PZZ673), SCA level NW winds are expected very late tonight or early Mon thru Tue morning, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue afternoon/evening. For the southern outer waters (PZZ676), SCA level NW winds are expected to develop Mon and cont thru Tue, with a 40% chance of SCA level winds Tue night. SCA conds are not expected Wed thru Thu.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds during the afternoon/evening hours Mon and Tue.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

In the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds in these areas Wed morning. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Gaviota
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Sun -- 12:57 AM PST     1.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:24 AM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:35 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM PST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gaviota, California, Tide feet

Santa Barbara
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Sun -- 12:33 AM PST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:20 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM PST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

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