Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goleta, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/317 PM.

Sunny skies covered the forecast area this afternoon apart from any smoke in L.A. county. Little change is expected thru sunset.
Gusty N-NE winds continued over the usual Santa Ana wind corridor in VTU/L.A. Counties, but winds have diminished to Advisory levels or below. Temps across the region are expected to be near normal to a few degrees below seasonal norms this afternoon. Highs should be in the 60s to near 70 from the coast to the vlys, with low 70s possible in the warmest inland coast and vlys of VTU/L.A.
Counties.

An upper level low is forecast to develop along the Central CA coast tonight and push quickly out to sea well SW of the forecast area Mon afternoon thru Wed as an upper level high builds into nrn CA. A broad easterly flow aloft can be expected over the area late Mon thru Wed.

The main weather story over the next three days is the continued and persistent strong and gusty Santa Ana winds mainly across the wind prone areas of VTU/L.A. county. Advisory level NE gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected at times thru later Mon night. Good offshore pressure gradients in the -5 to -8 mb range to the E will continue the gusty winds, now expected to reach Warning levels late Mon night thru Wed morning from the San Gabriel Mtns to the San Fernando Vly and into SE Ventura County to the coast, where gusts of 60 to 70 mph will be possible. Other areas such as the Santa Clarita Vly and eastern san Gabriel Mtns will likely have high end Advisory level gusts to up to 55 mph. Please see the latest Non-Precipitation Weather Message (LAXNPWLOX) for further details on the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings.

Needless to say, all the offshore flow will keep any marine influence well off the coast so skies will remain mostly clear across SW CA tonight through Wednesday.

Temps will have a warming trend for Mon thru Wed. By Wed, temps should be several degrees above normal for many areas. Highs in the 60s to around 70 for the coast and vlys Mon will warm to the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wed. Overnight lows will be quite cold in sheltered areas. It should drop below 32 degrees in the Ojai Vly tonight, and there is a Freeze Warning in effect there from late tonight into Mon morning.

The winds combined with the very low humidities and tinder dry fuels will lead to a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning conditions by late Mon night and continue thru Wed morning. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/318 PM.

There will be some offshore winds on Thursday morning but the offshore flow will only be half as strong as it was on Wednesday and there is not much of any upper support. With these two factors, there will be some sub advisory NE winds in the morning.
The weaker offshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys.

The upper level low is forecast to move E of the area by Thu night, with a dry northerly flow aloft expected Fri, transitioning to a NW flow aloft over the weekend as upper level ridging builds off the coast. The sfc flow will turn onshore Fri with varying amounts of marine layer clouds pushing into the coast and some vlys Fri night into Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected. Temps will cool considerably Fri thru Sun, with highs dropping to several degrees below normal.

AVIATION
12/1855Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conds with only a 10 percent chc of MVFR conds in smoke conds for the Los Angeles County coastal terminals thru tonight.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds with only a 10 percent chance 4-5SM FU and/or bkn025 smoke layer at any point. There is a 15 percent chance of N crosswinds of 15-20 kt 09Z-17Z Mon.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conds. There is a 20% chance of 15 kt N wind gusts 16Z-18Z Mon.

MARINE
12/222 PM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will develop from the northeast to east across PZZ673/PZZ676 through Monday and continue into Tuesday night and early Wednesday. SCA conditions are not anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon.

Across the inner waters north of Point Sal, SCA conditions are unlikely.

Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA winds will develop from the southern/eastern Santa Barbara Channel to the waters off the Orange County Coast through Monday and continue into Tuesday night and early Wednesday. There is a 30% chance for gale-force winds to occur over far southern parts of PZZ650 and far northern parts of PZZ655 during the night through morning hours Monday night to Wednesday. SCA conditions are not anticipated starting Wednesday afternoon.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 88-362-370-371-373-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST Tuesday for zones 354-355-358-369-372-374>376-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to noon PST Wednesday for zones 354-355-358-369-372-374>376-378-379.
(See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Warning remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 PM Monday to noon PST Wednesday for zones 345-353. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).