Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goleta, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:50PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:10 PM PST (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 902 Pm Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 15 kt late in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 18 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
PZZ600 902 Pm Pst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 04z or 8 pm pst, a 1025 mb surface high was centered 450 nm sw of point conception with a ridge extending to a 1028 mb high across ern nevada.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goleta, CA
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location: 34.47, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 100426 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 826 PM PST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. 09/825 PM.

A few areas of patchy fog are possible Tuesday morning as clouds persist over the region. Wednesday looks sunny, and temperatures will warm to above normal values for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, clouds should increase again and there is a slight chance of rain in the Ventura County mountains.

SHORT TERM (MON-THU). 09/824 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest GOES-W fog product imagery indicated mostly clear skies across much of the forecast area, except low clouds were lingering across interior SLO County including the Salinas River Valley. There will be enough north and easterly flow to keep low clouds banked up against the foothills in eastern SLO County and possibly the Ventura County Mtns through tonight. Latest NAM- WRF Cross Section model was hinting at patchy low clouds developing around the Long Beach area, but based on current conditions with clear skies, and some northerly winds across the region, will pull back the low clouds for Long Beach and southern L.A. County coastal areas for the overnight hours. There will be some local gusty northerly winds across the I-5 Corridor and should filter down to the Santa Clarita Valley overnight. There could be local gusty Northerly winds across the western portion of the SBA South Coast, mainly near Gaviota. Winds will not reach advisory levels overnight.

High temperatures over the last 24-hours trended up anywhere from 3-12 degrees across a good part of the forecast area, except 3-5 degrees cooler across SLO interior locations where it stayed cloudy all day. Best warming occurred across valleys and the Central Coast thanks to some weak offshore flow off the San Lucia Mtns. The warming was due to an elongated short wave ridge behind the exiting trough into southern Arizona today that set up over Southern Cal well into the west Coast of Canada. This ridge will breakdown by Tuesday morning allowing for a more zonal flow over Southern Cal. Skies will become mostly cloudy with high clouds moving into the region late tonight and will persist into Wednesday as a shortwave trough within the upper flow moves through the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Not expecting any rain with this quick moving disturbance. High temps will be 2-6 degrees cooler in most areas tomorrow, except a few degrees warmer across interior locations of SLO County. Overall, highs will be around normal for this time of year.

***From Previous Discussion***

The main impact of the trough will be mostly cloudy skies and cooler conditions for Wednesday along with some breezy to locally windy conditions through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County.

The trough should exit the region on Wednesday night and high pressure aloft should build in through Thursday. Offshore flow will develop and temperatures should warm to above normal on Thursday. Advisory level northeast winds do not look likely for Thursday, but breezy to locally windy conditions could develop through and below passes and canyons.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 09/155 PM.

Warmer than normal conditions should remain into Friday, then a weak trough of low pressure will sag south for the weekend. PoPs and rain chances were tweaked a bit, but the best chance for any rainfall will be for the northern areas, including San Luis Obispo County and the northern slopes of the mountains. Advisory level winds should develop between Saturday and Sunday through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County.

A moderate Santa Ana could be setting up for early next week in the wake of the storm. ECMWF ensembles indicate several members with strong winds across eastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. More confidence is placed more for the mountains and the Santa Clarita Valley at this time, but the coastal and valley area will have to be watched more closely. The latest GFS surface pressure gradients suggest -5.1 mb pressure gradient between KLAX and KDAG. Regardless, warmer conditions should expected for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

AVIATION. 10/0013Z.

At 2302Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer, but a weak inversion was around 6700 ft deep.

S of Point Conception . High confidence with 00z TAFs except lower at KLAX, where there is a 30% for LIFR conds and 50% at KLGB between 12z-16z Tue.

N of Point Conception . Moderate confidence with 00z TAFs. There will be some LLWS +/- 10kt possible at KSBP KSMX with NE winds aloft and NW-N winds at surface through the overnight hours. There is a 30% chance that patchy stratus will develop along portions of the Central Coast bringing LIFR Conds between 10z-16z Tue. Low confidence on KPRB, with a 50% chance for LIFR/IFR cats lasting a few hours past 17z.

KLAX . High confidence in VFR cats through at least 09Z. Then 30% chance of LIFR cats late tonight into Tuesday, with a potential start window (11-15Z). East winds likely 08-18Z Tuesday, moderate confidence of staying below 8KT.

KBUR . High confidence in VFR through Tuesday.

MARINE. 09/103 PM.

Moderate confidence Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island through tonight. Winds will stay under SCA Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with SCA conditions possible for the same area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. More widespread gusty NW to W winds possible Friday and Saturday with building seas.

A large and long period W to NW swell will impact the coastal waters later Thursday and continue through Saturday, resulting in hazardous sea conditions and large breaking waves near shore. Breaking waves at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances are possible.

Patchy dense fog with low visibility possible through at least Tuesday. SE winds up to 15 kt possible Tuesday morning between islands.

BEACHES. 09/959 AM.

A large long-period west to northwest swell will push into southwest California Thursday night, peak on Friday, then slowly decay over the weekend. Swells should peak at 12 to 15 feet off the Central Coast, and 5 to 8 feet over the southern waters. High Surf Advisories look likely, with strong rip currents and dangerous breaking waves. There is a small chance for warning-level surf over 20 feet along the Central Coast. With high tides around 6.5 feet, minor coastal flooding is possible late Friday and Saturday mornings. Any coastal flooding impacts should be confined to the beaches, with flooding in the most vulnerable parking lots, bike paths, and walkways.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

High surf is likely and minor coastal flooding is possible for late this week at area beaches. Strong north winds possible Sunday in southern Santa Barbara County, and parts of LA/Ventura Counties.



PUBLIC . Kaplan/Hall AVIATION . Kaplan MARINE . Kittell BEACHES . Kittell SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi30 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 61°F1019.2 hPa59°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 17 mi94 min N 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 1018.9 hPa
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 29 mi40 min NW 21 G 27 59°F 60°F1019.6 hPa54°F
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 35 mi70 min NNW 26 G 28 58°F 1019.1 hPa (+0.3)
HRVC1 36 mi58 min 58°F 1020.8 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 42 mi40 min 61°F7 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA9 mi17 minN 010.00 miFair48°F46°F93%1018.8 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA10 mi15 minNE 310.00 miFair45°F44°F100%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5CalmN8CalmN4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3SE5SE10S7CalmS5S5SE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS6S3S6S6W4W7W11SW8W11W17W15
G20
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2 days agoNE4E7E3E10E7E6E3CalmCalmNE5E4E7E7E9E9E6E7E7E4E4E7NE3E5E3

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:41 AM PST     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM PST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:24 PM PST     3.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.81.72.12.83.84.85.55.85.64.73.52.20.90-0.3-0.10.61.52.53.33.73.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM PST     1.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM PST     5.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:54 PM PST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:11 PM PST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.81.82.23455.75.95.54.63.31.90.7-0.1-0.3-00.81.82.73.53.83.63.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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