Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 7:17 PM PST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 209 Pm Pst Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 40 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds. Rain likely in the evening, then rain.
Thu..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 40 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Rain. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain and slight chance of tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds. Rain in the morning, then chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 209 Pm Pst Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z, or 1 pm pst, a 993 mb low was centered 120 nm nw of brookings, oregon, with a cold front extending southward. Strong southerly winds will affect the coastal waters ahead of the front as it slowly moves toward the coastal waters through Thursday. Storm force winds will affect the northern outer and northern inner waters, with gale force winds across most other areas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 280037 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 437 PM PST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. 27/429 PM.

Periods of heavy rain will redevelop across San Luis Obispo County later tonight and move through the remainder of the area Thursday into early Friday. Several inches of rain are expected, with flooding concerns that include the recent burn areas. Several feet of high elevation mountain snow is also expected, along with moderate to strong southerly winds. Much quieter weather expected over the weekend into Monday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 27/140 PM.

Satellite imagery showing a northward shift of the colder cloud tops away from SLO County, confirming what models have been saying the last few days as a high pressure ridge strengthens across the Rockies. The result being a substantial decrease in rain rates and areal coverage. Light precip had been reported as far south as western LA County but that line has shifted almost to Santa Barbara County. Meanwhile, the very heavy rain that was falling across northwest SLO County has decreased considerably to just light to moderate. Expect this situation now to hold most of the night before the Rockies ridge starts to move east and allows the upper low off the coast to advance as well, bringing heavy rain back to the SLO County later tonight and eventually to the rest of the area Thursday into Thursday night.

So overall very little change to the forecast through Friday. Heavy precip will advance across the area Thursday with strong orthogonal flow likely generating impressive rainfall rates across SLO and southern Santa Barbara Counties by mid to late morning and lasting until early evening before the front moves into LA and Ventura Counties. Despite what likely will be 1 inch per hour rates or locally higher across srn SB County during this period, expecting rates to generally stay below critical thresholds for the Cave burn area there. However, thresholds are quite a bit lower for the more recent LA County burns such as the Bobcat, Lake, and Ranch2 burn scars and there's a much better chance of reaching or exceeding those as the front moves through Thursday night into early Friday so a flash flood watch was added for those burn scars. There is some instability with the front as well so an isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out. Expecting some very impressive 2-3 day rain totals, in excess of 10" across the coastal foothills of SLO County, 3-7" across Santa Barbara County, 2-6" in Ventura County, 1.5-4" in LA County.

Significant snow accumulations are expected in the mountains with this storm, generally above 6000', though early on in the event some light accumulations are possible down to around 4500'. As the front approaches and pulls up some warmer air from the south the snow levels will rise and keep most of the heavier accumulations above the 6000' level.

Gusty south to southeast winds will continue across SLO/SB Counties until the front moves through Thursday. Winds have been relatively light across LA/Ventura Counties so far but expecting winds to increase quite a bit later tonight and Thursday, especially in the mountains.

Friday the system will be exiting the area however a moist southwest flow behind the front will maintain a threat of showers most of the day, though decreasing from north to south through the day as drier northwest flow develops.

Sunny and slightly warmer most areas Saturday under light northeast flow.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 27/152 PM.

Generally quiet weather Sun/Mon with warming temperatures to near normal. Clouds will be increasing Monday ahead of the next system. A majority of the ensemble members are keeping rain north of Pt Conception with this Monday night into Tuesday but either way rain amounts expected to be mostly under a quarter inch. Otherwise just some clouds and cooler temps.

A second and colder system follows quickly on Wednesday though it takes a more inland track and thus is much drier but likely windier with possible advisory level northerly winds below passes and canyons Tuesday night into Wednesday. Also can't rule out some low elevation snow showers around the Grapevine during that time as the northerly flow generates some lifting on the north facing slopes.

AVIATION. 28/0026Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer.

For sites in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, expect widespread MVFR cigs during the overnight period, lowering to IFR between 15Z- 20Z, with occasional LIFR possible. There will be moderate to heavy rain through the period, except for KPRB where RA will transition to -RA after around 20Z.

Across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, expect VFR to MVFR conditions through much of the period, with cigs lowering to IFR around 20Z for KOXR and KCMA, and lowering to MVFR for KLAX after 00Z Fri. Light rain will be possible after around 12Z, with RA moving into Ventura Co. by 15Z. Moderate rain for LA Co. will be delayed until after 00Z.

Gusty SE to S winds are expected across much of the area through the period, strongest from Ventura Co. northward. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for Santa Barbara and San Luis Counties between 18Z-00Z, with TSTM chances spreading across the area after 00Z Fri.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Expect mostly VFR conds, lowering to MVFR after 00Z Fri. There is a chance of light rain after 12Z, with RA likely after 00Z. East winds between 12-18kt expected 12Z-20Z, followed by SE winds up to 10kt.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Expect cloudy skies with VFR and occasional high MVFR conds possible. There is a 40% chance of light rain after 12Z, with light to moderate rain possible after 20Z.

MARINE. 27/1008 AM.

No changes were made to the morning update.

Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Conditions across the coastal waters will continue to deteriorate today, especially for the northern waters.

Across the inner coastal waters north of Pt. Sal and across the northern outer waters zone (PZZ670), STORM FORCE SE to S winds of 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt are expected thru early Thu. There could be isolated gusts to 55 kt. There will also be large hazardous seas as high as 14 to 18 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels by mid morning Thu, then below SCA level Thu night. However, seas will remain at or above SCA levels thru at least Fri, and possibly Fri night.

Across the central outer waters zone (PZZ673), Gale force SE to S winds are expected thru early Thu. Local STORM FORCE wind gusts to 50 kt are possible this afternoon into tonight. Seas will also become very large, at 14 to 17 ft. Winds are expected to diminish to SCA levels by mid or late morning Thu, then below SCA levels Thu night. However, seas will remain at or above SCA levels thru Fri night.

Across the southern outer waters zone (PZZ676) SCA level SE to S winds will increase to Gale force by mid morning, then persist through Thu afternoon. Winds will drop to SCA levels by late Thu afternoon, and below SCA level late Thu night, but seas will likely remain at or above SCA levels thru Fri.

Across the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level SE winds will increase to Gale force this afternoon. Gale force winds will continue through early Thu evening, then winds will shift to SW and diminish, falling below SCA levels by midnight. Winds will be strongest across western portions. Steep short period seas are expected later today thru Thu evening.

Across the souther inner waters. SCA levels SE-S winds will develop this morning, then continue through late Thu night before winds shift to SW and diminish below SCA levels. Winds will be strongest across western sections today thru Thu morning, then will become widespread Thu afternoon and evening. Steep short period seas are expected, especially late tonight thru Thu night.

BEACHES. 27/1028 AM.

Depending on the latest guidance, low end surf advisories may be necessary south of Point Conception on Thursday. The situation will be monitored closely.

High surf will continue as another storm system will bring large swells to the coastal waters thru Thu night, and high surf to the Central Coast into Fri. Very strong southerly winds will continue across the Central Coast and in the coastal waters through early Thursday. Surf is expected to peak at 10 to 16 feet later today into Thu, then surf will slowly subside Thu night and Fri.

Moderate coastal flooding is possible this morning and again Thu morning within a few hours of the high tide along the Central Coast. The main area of concern will be Port San Luis. There will be strong and dangerous rip currents on Central Coast beaches with beach erosion likely.

Surf may reach minimal high surf advisory levels on west facing beaches south of Point Conception Thu into Fri.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Wind Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Thursday for zones 34-51. (See LAXNPWLOX). Storm Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zone 34. (See LAXMWWLOX). Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until noon PST Thursday for zone 34. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Friday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Flash Flood Watch in effect through Thursday evening for zone 34. (See LAXFFALOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Thursday for zones 35>39. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday morning for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Friday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 52. (See LAXWSWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon PST Friday for zone 53. (See LAXWSWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 PM PST Friday for zone 54. (See LAXWSWLOX). Flash Flood Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for zones 54-59-88. (See LAXFFALOX). PZ . Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Large surf will likely linger into Friday on the Central Coast. Gusty northerly winds possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially in the mountains and below passes and canyons.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . Smith MARINE . Sweet/DB BEACHES . Sweet/DB SYNOPSIS . MW

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 19 mi38 min SE 23 G 31 1014.3 hPa
HRVC1 24 mi60 min 56°F 1012.6 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi78 min SSE 26 G 41 53°F 1010 hPa (-1.1)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 26 mi38 min SE 21 G 27 56°F 56°F1016.7 hPa50°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi42 min E 15 G 20 53°F 1016.9 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi52 min 56°F12 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi23 minSE 11 G 245.00 miLight Drizzle50°F45°F82%1014.6 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi22 minSE 15 G 227.00 miLight Rain53°F49°F86%1013.3 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi25 minE 12 G 214.00 miOvercast with Haze53°F48°F83%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIZA

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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1 day ago--NW4W3W3SW3CalmW4W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W4NE3W3NW5NW3W12W10W4Calm
2 days agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:12 AM PST     2.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:27 AM PST     5.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:43 PM PST     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:27 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:16 PM PST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.42.22.32.83.64.55.45.95.95.24.12.71.2-0-0.8-0.9-0.50.41.52.63.33.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cuyler Harbor, San Miguel Island, California
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Cuyler Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM PST     2.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM PST     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:40 PM PST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:29 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM PST     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.32.12.22.83.64.55.35.85.75.13.92.51.1-0.1-0.8-0.9-0.40.51.62.63.33.63.5

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.