Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:53PM Friday January 24, 2020 12:57 PM EST (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 5:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 241620 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1120 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moist flow over a cool wedge of high pressure will make for a chilly, rainy day today. A cold front will cross the area tonight bringing in drier air. Seasonally cool and dry conditions will persist over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1115 AM: Rain, heavy at times has organized along a frontal feature draped north to south across the region. An eroding hybrid cad ahead of this feature has supported patchy dense fog formation east of I-26 across the Upstate of SC. Flow has become southeast and a bit stronger than expected prompting temperatures to warm a tad faster than forecast. In fact we are starting to see breaks in low clouds across the I-77 corridor which may set the stage for better instability and a higher chance of some stronger thunderstorms later this afternoon into the early evening. Have updated the forecast to reflect these trends. Winds at higher elevations have largely remained below advisory levels. In coordination with neighboring offices, will hang onto the advisory at least into the early afternoon to see if a weakening inversion aloft allows some of the stronger winds to filter into the higher elevations.

As of 645 AM: High pressure centered over northern Quebec is ridging down the Eastern Seaboard this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a deep cutoff low over the Ozarks, which is expected to slowly wobble eastward into the lower Ohio Valley today. A broad plume of moisture is being advected north out of the Gulf in advance of this low. Sfc temps wet-bulbed down very close to freezing across much of the foothills overnight, allowing precip to fall as a cold rain in almost all areas. Aloft a strong warm nose suggested freezing rain was likely where temps fell below freezing, but only a few ridgetop obs actually dropped that low. A few automated obs in lower elevations have occasionally reported UP which suggests sleet pellets mixing in from time to time. The warm nose should only strengthen the rest of the morning, and temps warm slightly. No impacts from wintry precip are expected aside from those few ridges which could see some slight ice accumulation.

850mb winds of 40-50 kt will continue with the southerly flow into the occluding system, and this jet will gradually traverse the mountains and Escarpment through early afternoon. A Wind Advisory covers the impacts of gusts from this flow, which will not mix down too remarkably well within the WAA. Significant enhancement to rainfall rates however will occur which means isolated spots along the south-facing Escarpment, and in the Balsams, are likely to see more than 2 inches rain for a storm total. Minor flooding is possible in these areas.

Along and south of the wedge boundary, sfc-based instability will develop within the warm sector of the system. While the major deterministic models show this instability staying south and east of our CWA, the 00z HREF ensemble max SBCAPE rises above 100 J/kg in the eastern SC and southern NC Piedmont zones, so it is looking like a close call. The strong midlevel flow results in 0-3 km shear values up to 50 kt immediately ahead of the cold front as it moves into those areas around or soon after sunset. Coupled with a low LCL forecast, when SPC issued the new Day 1 Outlook they saw fit to place a sliver of our far southeast CWA into the Marginal Risk area for the associated tornado risk.

NW-flow snowfall is expected to develop late tonight in the wake of the cold front, along the Tenn border. No significant accumulation is forecast with unfavorably warm temp profiles in the layer of lift, and winds taking their time to become orthogonal. East of the mountains, the drier incoming airmass will bring PoPs to near zero after midnight, though some of the hi-res WRFs depict stratus and fog developing as the cold air moves over saturated ground, beneath a subsidence inversion. Some cloud cover thus is fcst to stick around thru daybreak in parts of the Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 130 AM Friday: Deep layered forcing continues to weaken early during the short range. The mean sfc-h5 flow becomes w/ly to nw/ly across the FA with meager amts of moisture affecting the wrn upslope regions of the NC mtns. Dropped soundings across the spine indicate a stg warm nose and very shallow llvl moisture . yet the entire sounding will be below freezing . so no p/type concerns outside of snow possibly transitioning to rain across the nrn NC mtns late while available llvl moisture decreases. The llvl flow across the central NC mtns including the Smokies will generally be w/ly which will limit topo lift and subsequent snowfall amts thru early Sun. For now . have generally a half inch or less and mainly confined to the border region. The winds will be defined nw/ly across the nrn NC mtns so even with lowering moisture . expect around an inch of snow mainly the higher elevations like Beech Mtn. Overall the event looks to remain sub-advisory yet slick roads will be possible both Sat/Sun mornings.

A reinforcing cP airmass continues to mix in Sat/Sun which will keep max and min temps right arnd normal By Sun night. a srn stream low will advance toward the FA area. The models have sped this system up and there/s decent agreement with light precip reaching the wrn zones after 00z. The srn mtns look to saturate up to h5 while sfc temps drop below freezing So. have introduced accum snow aft 03z thru the period with up to an inch anticipated across the srn/cent mtns and less so up the spine thru daybreak.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 235 AM Friday: Continued snowfall across the NC mtns will yield little additional accum before the sfc layer rises abv freezing by late morning. Expect arnd a half inch or so generally abv 3.5 Kft. The models develop a more robust cP high building into the region Mon afternoon . so expect dry conds earlier in the period. Made some sigfnt changes to PoPs over the mid-week period. The latest guidance has come in much drier wrt the evolution of a srn stream system. The GFS and the ECMWF have suppressed a moist sfc low further south than the previous runs while the 00z CMC is a curious outlier . which continues to bring the low across the nrn GOM with a good deal of moisture and diurnal snow over the NC mtns Wed and Thu Thus with some uncertainty. have left slight chance PoPs in with non/accumulating -snsh across the higher terrain. Max temps will likely rise a bit abv normal each day as good insol and a w/ly downslope component offsets a reinforcing polar airmass.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Warm advective flow over entrenched in-situ CAD will mean LIFR will be the norm today, possibly lifting to IFR later today. The heaviest precip is expected in the late morning. LLWS criteria may be met at times across the Piedmont from late morning to late afternoon, which has prompted a mention at KCLT. A rumble of thunder is possible in the same timeframe across the area, but chance of TS is too small to include. Furthermore a very small chance of a storm producing damaging winds exists around sunset. Cold fropa will bring precip to an end from west to east this aftn and evening. A strong inversion is depicted as lingering into Saturday morning above the PBL, which will allow cigs to persist until close to daybreak. Cold advection over wet ground may also generate fog.

Outlook: Dry conditions will persist Saturday through early next week.

Confidence Table .

16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-12Z KCLT High 82% High 86% Low 51% High 90% KGSP Med 62% Med 72% Med 77% High 90% KAVL High 92% Med 70% High 86% High 82% KHKY Med 65% Low 57% Med 71% Low 58% KGMU Low 52% Med 68% High 95% High 95% KAND High 85% Med 67% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ033-048>052-058-059. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . 08 NEAR TERM . 65/08 SHORT TERM . SBK LONG TERM . SBK AVIATION . 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi97 min SSE 7 G 13 55°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi37 min SE 11 G 15 58°F 1015.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi2 hrsVar 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F41°F93%1017.4 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi63 minN 62.00 miRain Fog/Mist42°F39°F92%1017.3 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi62 minNNE 41.00 miUnknown Precip41°F41°F100%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

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Last 24hrNE11E10E6NE9NE6NE5E9E12NE9E14
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NE8NE7NE8NE7NE10NE11NE11E8E11E10E9NE754
1 day agoNE9NE6NE8NE4NE7NE4CalmNE4NE4NE6NE5NE7NE6NE7NE5NE8NE7NE6NE7NE6NE8NE9E11NE10
2 days agoN7N9NE8NE11NE8NE4NE3NE5N3N5N4NW4CalmCalmN5CalmNE4NE4NE6NE3NE9E10NE10NE13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.