Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reed Creek, GA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:54PM Monday January 25, 2021 3:55 PM EST (20:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 5:02AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reed Creek, GA
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location: 34.5, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 252001 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 301 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the forecast area on Tuesday. Brief, dry high pressure returns late Tuesday before an area of low pressure brings precipitation back on Wednesday into early Thursday. Canadian high pressure will return dry conditions Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 155 pm: A weakly forced warm sector-like regime persists over the forecast area this afternoon, with only patchy areas of -RA and showers passing over the area, as the better low level forcing continues to shift northeast. Otherwise, shallow in-situ cold air damming persists, but will slowly erode from south to north over the next 24 hours, as warm sector southerly flow strengthens in response to cyclone progressing from the Ozarks this afternoon, to the Ohio Valley by late this evening. Temps will therefore remain steady or slowly rise in many areas through tonight. Cold front will approach the southern Appalachians overnight, with pops ramping up again from the west from mid-evening through the overnight, with much of the NW half of the CWA getting a likely to categorical pop by 12Z Tue.

A consensus of guidance continues to depict some weak surface-based instability developing in the warm sector, just ahead of the frontal zone tonight into Tue morning. However, guidance also depicts a weakening frontal circulation, with increasingly veered (almost westerly) low level flow developing across the zone, and therefore an increasingly disorganized band of showers/isolated embedded storms moving into the forecast area during the overnight. Due to the veered nature of the flow, low level shear parameters are unimpressive (< 25 kts) within the instability axis, and therefore not especially conducive to organized/severe convection given the low CAPE values. While an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, with perhaps even an isolated weak tornado possible with any cell(s) interacting with the retreating cold air damming boundary, this threat is very low.

With the westerly flow bringing drier air into the area behind the front, conditions will steadily clear out from late morning into the afternoon. This clearing, combined with very high thickness values to start the day, downslope warming, and a bit of a lag in the post frontal cold advection, will result in max temps about 20 degrees above normal, with widespread 70s expected across the Piedmont and foothills Tue afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 245 PM EST Monday . the middle part of the week still looks active as a strong short wave moves east over the Plains on Tuesday night and induces cyclogenesis along the front stalled to our south on Wednesday. Nothing too controversial in the model guidance which agrees that mid/upper forcing will spread across the fcst area on Wednesday, but with something of a split indicated in the response. The wave moves along the front but there is little response to the approaching short wave seen in the ridge, so the boundary and sfc low remain to our southeast through Wednesday. Better forcing also moves up across the Great Valley and past to our NW. This doesn't really get reflected in the fcst, other than to say the better precip amts should stay to our SE and NW. The passage of the upper wave Wednesday evening should sweep most of the precip off to the east, leaving us with a period of NW flow upslope precip near the TN border late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with precip changing to snow at the high elevations down into the valleys. If the changeover can happen early enough with the cold air arriving Wednesday evening, we could pick up something on the order of 2-4 inches at high elevations above about 4000 feet. Thus, we might be looking at mainly an advisory-level snow event. We will have another model cycle or two before we have to make any plans, though. We get one more above normal day on Wednesday, before the cold air returns and brings us back to normal or less on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 235 PM EST Monday . The latter part of the week still looks relatively quiet and a bit cool as we have a dry NW flow with a large upper ridge to our west through Friday and into Saturday. This will support a large sfc high moving past well to our north. High temps will be close to normal, but low temps a category or so below normal. Some controversy creeps in starting on Saturday as the upper ridge axis crosses the region. Some of the guidance wants to bring a SW return flow of moisture into the region in the afternoon, but this might be too fast. It seems more plausible that any moisture return and precip would not spread eastward into the mtns until Saturday night, and maybe not even until after midnight at that. The GFS came in relatively warm for Saturday night as warm advection kicks in, but the faster ECMWF has the precip arriving ahead of the warm advection. A blend of the two leans more toward the ECMWF in having some possibility of high elevation snow developing before daybreak on Sunday, but eventually becoming all rain on Sunday morning. With the earlier scenario, we might have the potential for a light accumulation before the changeover at the high elevations, but the system overall looks too warm for anything significant in the valleys or east of the Blue Ridge. We ramp up to a likely precip prob on Sunday morning. The guidance shows the trof axis moving through late Sunday, so expect some NW flow of residual moisture and cold air to develop Sunday night and persist into Monday morning, probably as snow showers on the TN border. Temps do not immediately respond to the passage of the trof axis though, leaving us a bit above normal for Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread showers are moving away from the terminals early this afternoon, leaving behind widespread LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR visby. Brief periods of showers will remain possible through the evening hours, warranting VCSH at all terminals. Otherwise, minimal improvement is expected to cigs over the next 18 hours or so, with LIFR expected to prevail at most sites. Small improvement in visby is possible this afternoon/evening, but will likely deteriorate again overnight. Shower chances will increase overnight into Tue morning as a front approaches from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly btw 06-12Z, warranting Prob30s, primarily at the upstate SC terminals. Late Tue morning should finally see gradually improving flight conditions and diminishing shower chances. Winds will generally remain light/vrbl or light S/SW through the period.

Outlook: Drying/improving conditions are expected later Tuesday, but this will be brief as moisture and precipitation are expected to move back into the area from early Wed into early Thu. This will be followed by a return of dry weather Thu night through Sat.

Confidence Table .

20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z KCLT High 85% High 89% Med 77% High 81% KGSP High 85% High 87% Med 72% Med 67% KAVL Med 71% High 91% Med 76% High 86% KHKY Med 78% Med 78% Med 73% Med 73% KGMU High 83% Med 76% High 84% Med 71% KAND Med 79% Med 77% High 82% High 86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . JDL SHORT TERM . PM LONG TERM . PM AVIATION . JDL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 67 mi95 min N 8 G 9.9
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 87 mi35 min SE 1 G 2.9 63°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC6 mi59 minS 41.50 miFog/Mist50°F49°F96%1013 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC13 mi61 minN 07.00 miOvercast48°F47°F96%1013.6 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC22 mi60 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist48°F48°F100%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

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Last 24hrSE3SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3N4N4NW3CalmCalmE3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4
1 day agoE7SE4E3E3E3E4E5E5E6E4NE4NE4NE4N3E4CalmE6NE5E4E4433E4
2 days agoW5SW7SW4CalmW4CalmW4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5445E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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