Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed Creek, GA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week.
2. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM Tue for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures near daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any accumulation is likely to be too small to improve drought conditions. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week.

Anomalously deep ridge will remain centered over the coastal Southeast thru Thursday, with Bermuda High extending inland at the surface. 500mb heights gradually trend higher through early Thursday, peaking above the 95th percentile of climo, while southwesterly flow continues in low levels. Temps trend warmer thru Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will maintain a very dry profile, and lapse rates unfavorable for any deep diurnal convection anyway. A shortwave associated with a Midwest cyclone will lead to a brief period of height falls late Thursday and bring a very weak front up to the Appalachians, leading to somewhat more favorable lapse rates and moistening aloft near the TN/NC border around Thursday evening. Model QPF response is minimal but the thermodynamic changes can justify slight-chance PoPs along the immediate border; if precip develops at all only a couple hundredths of rain accum could be expected at that time. Though the passage of the shortwave will lead to lower heights over our area Friday, it turns winds downslope in low levels, and with no airmass change expected, that plus further modification should lead to still warmer max temps Friday afternoon. Warming trend should continue Saturday as the SW flow regime redevelops by then.

NBM bias correction appears to be lowering the operational NBM max temps such that they fall below the 25th percentile of the NBM distribution, but even the operational NBM values are within a degree or two of daily records. Recent days we've tied daily max temp records, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for MaxT has peaked above 0.9 in our CWA, and the Shift-of-Tails has exceeded 1. These EFI/SoT criteria are met each day Wed-Sat, giving confidence that records could at least be tied at one or more of our climate sites (CLT, GSP, AVL) at some point in that period. High-min records could be in jeopardy also, though the generally clear and dry nights make that a bit more questionable with radiational cooling likely to be better than average.

A substantially stronger trough will induce cyclogenesis over the northern Plains by Friday, and should bring a cold front across the lower MS Valley thru Saturday, and then across our CWA early Sunday. A narrow moisture plume is progged to accompany the front into our area along with modest upper divergence. The major global models basically have maintained consistency with their earlier runs in their depictions of precip along and east of the Appalachians; the 14/12z GFS did increase QPF slightly over the Piedmont though that model overall has been drier than concurrent runs of the ECMWF. Likewise EC Ensemble probs of any measurable (> 0.01")
rainfall are higher than from the GEFS; neither ensemble suggests much potential for 0.10" for the Piedmont. Thus for now we continue to expect little to no improvement in either soil or fuel moisture from the front and thus no lasting relief from either drought or fire danger. Cooler, near to slightly below normal temperatures do look to result behind the front Sunday and Monday. A freeze is possible in some portions of the mountains Sunday night.

Key message 2: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM Tue for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Critically low relative humidity is likely to occur each of the next several afternoons.

Even with southwesterly flow continuing over the area from this afternoon through Thursday, the source airmass over the Gulf and Deep South is subsident and dry. Mixing depth will be limited by poor lapse rates aloft, though during peak heating the top of the boundary layer should reach into exceptionally dry midlevel air, so dewpoints should dip several degrees each afternoon. Coupled with unusually warm, early summer-like temperatures, relative humidity is likely to dip below 30 percent in many areas over the next few afternoons, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Breezy afternoon winds may exhibit a few gusts to near 20 mph, and objective meteorological criteria for Increased Fire Danger statements could be met at least on a local scale. Even where not met objectively, the combination of near-critical RH and wind with dry vegetation will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products remain possible throughout the rest of this week.

The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect until 8 PM today (Tuesday). The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is also in effect through 8 PM today.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: FEW-SCT low-VFR cumulus this afternoon mainly near the Appalachians, warranting a mention at KAVL and KHKY. Aside from those, just FEW cirrus or SKC thru the period. As far as winds, except for KAVL, predominantly SW with a few gusts of 15-20 kt this aftn. Winds largely turn light and may even go calm/VRB in the very early morning. KAVL instead may see VRB this afternoon as often occurs in light SW flow, with NW likely for a time late tonight. Given slow setup of daytime wind regime and light speeds, just went VRB at KAVL late Wed morning.

Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend. A few low VFR clouds, and perhaps stray SHRA, are possible late Thu or Thu night over the Appalachians.

CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ036- 037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...None.