NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 AM EDT Sunday: Can't rule out a shower or two early this morning east of I-77 but any precip will be light and east of the area by daybreak as a cold front moves south of the area. Mountain valley fog is likely, mainly near the TN border, or the normally more foggy Little TN valley where the low clouds are more scattered.

High pressure builds into the area from the north today. A tight pressure gradient over the area will keep winds elevated, with low end gusts, through the day. Stratocu has developed as light isentropic lift works on the the lingering low level moisture trapped under a weak subsidence inversion. These clouds should scatter out by early afternoon as the low level flow becomes more northeasterly ending the isentropic lift. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal as a cooler air mass works in. Generally clear skies and light winds expected tonight as the center of the high pressure moves to the NC/VA border brings a relaxed pressure gradient. More widespread mountain valley fog is likely. Lows will be around 10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 111 AM EDT Sunday: The first part of the new week still looks like it will be a stretch of nice late summer weather across the western Carolinas/northeast GA, courtesy of high pressure to our N/NE. A mid/upper ridge over the Plains Monday morning will build slowly east Tuesday, keeping that sfc high in our picture as it migrates from the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. This should keep an old sfc front at bay to our south through the period, while our air mass remains dry, and temps warm to within a few degrees on the cooler side of normal both days.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 222 AM EDT Sunday: Confidence is going up that our quiet weather pattern will come undone toward the end of the week. Although the details about the fate of a potential tropical remnant are murky as something lifts N/NE from the western Gulf to either the mid-MS Valley region or the TN Valley region, there's enough continuity in model solutions to start discussing the possibility of more active weather late in the period. As the western Gulf low of tropical origin lifts N/NE Thursday, an upper anticylone is expected to cut off over the Great Lakes region, forming a rex blocking pattern to our west. This pattern would have ramifications for our weather as it would favor keeping a weak parent high in position over PA/NY/New England from Thursday through most of the weekend as the whole pattern grinds to a halt. Deep moisture and low/mid level forcing would spread northward over the fcst area on Thursday to develop precip that would lock in a hybrid cold air damming wedge. The aforementioned upper anticyclone is shown to effectively block the passage of the remnant tropical system and keep it somewhere to our west or northwest through the weekend. That means we keep some amount of moisture transport from the Gulf or Atlantic directed overhead while we maintain low/mid level forcing. Nice to see the model blend start to pick up on this scenario with precip probs in the chance range starting Thursday and persisting through at least Saturday night. Confidence is still not great, but hopefully there will be some focus going forward that will raise the confidence to the likely range. Temps through the period will stay on the cool side of normal for highs, mostly 5-10 degrees below normal, with a low diurnal range owing to extensive cloudiness.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry high pressure builds into the area from the north today with the center of the high settling over the NC/VA border tonight. A tight pressure gradient will keep NE winds, N at KAVL, around 10 kts with low end gusts possible. Low level moisture and weak isentropic lift has created low VFR stratocu which has spread over the area with BKN to OVC cigs. The winds and clouds should limit fog potential to the normally more foggy non-TAF sites. The cigs will remain in place through mid-morning then scatter out by afternoon as the low level flow becomes more northeasterly. Winds become more easterly by late afternoon then light and variable by evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. o Sunday night.

Outlook: The center of surface high pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week. This will keep dry weather and VFR conditions around, but with increasing chances of mountain valley fog/low stratus each morning. A potential tropical cyclone moving out of the Gulf into the lower MS valley by Thursday could bring precip and associated restrictions to the area.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.