Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 212005 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 305 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will gradually slide offshore tonight. A cold front will move close to the area Friday, and then push through late Saturday night. High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into early next week, with another front approaching the area mid week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 300 PM Thurs . The latest meso-analysis is showing the center of high pressure over the Carolinas this afternoon, while the ridge axis is over the East Coast and bringing a few high clouds moving along the ridge. The high will gradually slide off the coast tonight, but allow winds to for a few tonight before winds become light from the SW. With mostly clear skies with a few cirrus clouds stream through, expect overnight lows in the low/mid 40's inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM Thurs . The sfc high will continue to move further SE from the coast, while a cold front approaches the region from the west. Clouds will gradually increase and lower throughout the day. Most of the day will be dry with a possible slight chance of showers late in the day along the northern zones; ahead of the frontal boundary. Models have trended drier, therefore reduced PoPs and coverage area. Low level thicknesses is supporting highs in the low/mid 60s over the NE to upper 60s near Duplin, and Onslow counties.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 200 PM Thu . Unsettled weather still expected for for Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will build back over the area late this weekend into early next week. Another cold front will but with limited moisture approach the area mid next week.

Friday night through Saturday night . A backdoor cold front will push south through the area Fri night and early Sat, then lift back north through the area during Sat. Looks like moisture will be limited Fri night into Sat morning so not expecting much precipitation during this time and will keep PoPs at a minimum. Better chances for rain western and northern areas Sat afternoon with the retreating front. PoPs increase to likely all areas Sat night as the front crosses the area. Could see some thunder Sat night, especially near the coast. Temps Sat will be tricky due to with cloud cover and location of frontal boundary during peak heating. Temps across the southern areas will likely be able to climb in the mid to upper 60s, while temps across the northern forecast area may struggle to break 60 deg.

Sunday through Thursday . Dry weather looks to return late weekend into early next week as the cold front pushes offshore early Sun followed by high pres building in from the west Sunday into Tue. Slightly below normal temps expected behind the front with highs 55-60 deg through Mon and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs should warm into the low to mid 60s on Tue and mid to upper 60s on Wed. A cold front with limited moisture will approach from the west mid week, with next rain chance Wednesday. The models are continuing to trend drier with moisture having a tough time making it east of the mountains. Thanksgiving Day is forecast to be dry and cool with highs 55-60.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Through Friday/ . As of 1240 PM Thu . VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with just some ocnl cirrus streaming through. A small chance of some BR tonight, esp KPGV and KEWN, though will leave out of the forecast attm as confidence is too low on this developing. Winds will be light through much of the period, then inc swrly winds gusting in the 15 kt range by late morning Fri.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 200 PM Thu . Periods of sub-VFR possible Friday night into early Sat mainly in ceilings due to increasing low level moisture, then better chances late Sat and Sat night as a frontal system and associated precipitation moves through the area. Pred VFR is expected to return Sun continuing into Tue as high pressure builds back over the area.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday/ . As of 300 PM Thurs . SCA over the central water cancelled as seas became less than 6 ft, but Small Craft conditions begin again tomorrow morning across all coastal waters including the Pamlico Sound.

The latest buoy observations are showing N/NW winds 5-10 knots and seas 3-5 ft. Winds will remain 5-10 knots, then winds gradually become W/SW and strengthen to around 15 knots after midnight. SW winds increase Friday morning to 15-25 knots ahead of cold front . with Small Craft Conditions starting tomorrow mid-morning through most of the day. Seas will remain 3-5 ft tonight, then build back to 4-6 by Friday night.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 200 PM Thu . Winds will be veering and decreasing Fri night as a backdoor cold front moves south through the waters. W winds 15-20 kt ahead of the front will become N/NE around 15 kt overnight behind the front. Seas 4-6 ft in the early Fri evening will subside to 2-4 ft late. Sat the front will drift back north through the waters with NE winds 10-15 kt early veering to S/SW in the afternoon with seas remaining 2-4 ft. Conditions will deteriorate quickly Sat night, as a period of strong SW winds 20-30 kt develop ahead of the front . with the potential for a brief period of gale force gusts. Seas will be building very quickly to 6-10 ft Sat night into early Sun. Winds will shift to NW 15-25 kt behind the front Sun, with large seas gradually subsiding during the afternoon and evening with offshore flow. Mon NW winds 10-15 kt will diminish to 5-10 kt as high pressure builds over the waters, with winds Tue become SW in the afternoon. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . JME/CQD AVIATION . JME/TL MARINE . JME/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
41064	21 mi	73 min	NNE 5.8 G 12	56°F	72°F		1022.8 hPa
41159	21 mi	21 min			72°F	3 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	23 mi	51 min	N 5.1 G 7	54°F	57°F		1023.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	26 mi	81 min	NNE 8.9 G 9.9	53°F			1023.2 hPa (-2.1)	42°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	41 mi	73 min	N 3.9 G 9.7	54°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	46 mi	73 min	SE 1.9 G 3.9	55°F	62°F		1023.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	46 mi	41 min			62°F	2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	46 mi	51 min	SSE 5.1 G 6	56°F	58°F		1023.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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1 day ago

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N8 G11

N3 G7

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N9 G12

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	24 mi	83 min	NNW 6	10.00 mi	Fair	56°F	37°F	49%	1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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