Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Emerald Isle, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 090716 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 316 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure along the southeast North Carolina coast will continue to slowly lift northeast along the coast today and move north of the area tonight. The low will then gradually lift north along the Mid Atlantic coast through late week. A weak front trailing the low will linger near the region into early next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 3 AM Thu . Low pres just S of Cape Lookout will slowly move NNE along the coast today. Best cvrg of rain wil be along the coast along and N of low track. Expect shra to increase inland with heating but cvrg shld remain more sct. With high precip wtr values will cont to see locally heavy downpours, espcly near cst. Some wind gust to 25 mph or so will be poss with showers. Highs low/mid 80s cst with mid to a few upr 80s inland.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 3 AM Thu . The low will cont to lift NNE and move N of region gradually. Decent cvrg of shra early NE tier will grad sct out with inland ares seeing precip tapering off or ending. Lows will cont in the 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 3 AM Thu .

Friday/Friday night . The area of low pressure currently off our coast now will be moving north and out of the area by Friday morning. Some wrap around showers are possible across the far northeast in the morning. Then toward afternoon, diurnal instability combined with a 500 mb trof over eastern North Carolina will be enough for a new round of showers and thunderstorms. Despite the area of low pressure moving north of our area, PWATS remain near or above 2", so locally heavy rain is still possible.

Saturday . While showers and storms can't be ruled out the entire long term period, Saturday at this vantage point looks to be the highest chance of the period. A cold front will move over our area while washing out. Meanwhile upstairs we will have a 500 mb short wave moving in late in the day. This shortwave will enhance precipitation changes mainly along and west of highway 17, and we will increased pops here to likely. Our atmosphere still will be soupy, with PWATS above 2" so again, locally heavy downpours will be possible. We remain hot, with highs well into the 90s inland.

Sunday through Tuesday . Not a lot of a pattern change Sunday and Monday. With a upper level high over the desert southwest, and another out in the Atlantic, the east coast will be under the influence of a broad trof. The deep southwest flow will keep our area hot or normal for this time of the year, with highs into the 90s away from the beaches. While the models don't show discrete features yet, the daily instability and trof in the east is enough to continue a 30-40% chance of storms each day. While not a washout, highest chances likely will coincide will peak heating during the afternoon. By Tuesday a more summerlike pattern shapes up, with a bermuda high building westward and our heights will begin to rise, diminishing our rain chances but keeping us hot.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 1245 AM Thu . Satl and observations show IFR stratus has developed SW tier and bulk of guidance shows this expanding N and E across rest of taf sites next few hrs. The low cigs will grad lift to MVFR mid morn Thu and appears for taf sites will cont to lift to VFR this aftn. Sct to poss numerous shra expected from mid morn on with brief lowering of vsbys poss. Looks like pred VFR tonight as better rain chcs shift to the NE with most guidance cont VFR cigs. There is some potential for some patchy fog late but confidence too low to add yet.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/ . As of 3 AM Thu . Mainly VFR through the period. Potential for brief MVFR restrictions especially during the afternoon in periods of showers or thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible where we see rainfall the following morning.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and tonight/ . as of 3 AM Thu . Low pres near Cape Lookout will slowly lift NE along coast thru evening and move N of region tonight. The low may strengthen slowly and NHC conts to monitor for poss trop development. Appears best winds will stay E and poss N of wtrs with speeds aob 15 kts srn tier and E to SE 15 to 20 kts central and N today. As the low lifts N tonight winds become W to SW at 10 to 15 kts. The onshore fetch N of the low combined with locally higher gusts assoc with shra could produce some 6 foot seas outer wtrs and have a SCA starting N of Ocracoke around daybreak thru late this aftn. Seas tonight will cont 2 to 4 ft S and 3 to 5 ft central and N.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/ . As of 3 AM Thu . Very similar wind speed and directions on the waters through the entire period, but our wave heights will vary quiet a bit. Small craft conditions due to increasing seas possible Sunday and Monday.

Southwest winds will prevail through the period at generally 10 to 20 kts. With a departing area of low pressure Friday seas will remain a bit elevated or 3 to 5 feet, decreasing a bit Saturday, 2 to 4. Swell will increase again Sunday and Monday with a prolonged steady southwest wind. Seas look to build to 4 to 6 feet all coastal waters, which may produce marginal small craft conditions due to wave heights.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203>205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150-152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . EH AVIATION . EH/RF MARINE . EH/RF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
41064	21 mi	55 min	E 9.7 G 14	79°F	82°F		1008.1 hPa
41159	21 mi	37 min			82°F	4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	23 mi	45 min	NE 4.1 G 6	77°F	84°F		1008.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	26 mi	63 min	ENE 13 G 15	78°F			1008.6 hPa (-1.5)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	41 mi	55 min	NNE 12 G 18	79°F	83°F		1008.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	46 mi	55 min	NNE 14 G 19	77°F	83°F		1008.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC	46 mi	26 min			82°F	3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC	46 mi	45 min	N 11 G 13	76°F	82°F		1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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SE9 G13

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SE13 G17

SE12 G16

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E7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC	13 mi	66 min	NNE 6	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	77°F	73°F	90%	1009.4 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	24 mi	65 min	NE 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	78°F	75°F	93%	1008.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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SE9

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SE11 G17

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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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