Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerald Isle, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 8 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Small chance of a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening along the coastal plain

Most of the convection this afternoon has been focused over central NC. There remains a small chance that development could seep eastward to the ENC coastal plain this evening, and if updrafts can mature, there would be a risk for severe weather owed to the very high instability still present and risk for convective downbursts. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Afternoon convection will be in place once again on Wednesday.
With little change in the pattern another day of decent instability and moisture will be in place but little shear to sustain showers and thunderstorms. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms remains in place for areas west of highway 17. WPC has also issued a marginal risk for flooding for a similar area for tomorrow. Hot and humid once again but with temperatures in the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s inland and dewpoints in the mid 70s that should help keep heat index levels over 100 inland but just below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 0445 Tuesday...A similar set up is expected for Wednesday, with a similar threat of strong to severe storms over the coastal plain. ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE coupled with meager bulk shear will limit the overall severe threat. SPC has the far western portions of the CWA in a marginal risk, mainly for the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts due to possibility of water loading stronger updrafts. Elevated PWATs will continue to support a risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flooding, with WPC having a marginal ERO for the western forecast area on Wednesday.

With increasing thicknesses due to the building ridge, the warm temps are forecast to continue into Wednesday with MaxTs in the low 90s inland from the coast, however Tds in the low 70s should keep heat indices out of Heat Advisory range (max AppT<105deg).

A series of shortwave troughs will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring an unsettled pattern across the region. With high PW values, the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall. WPC currently has marginal EROs for Days 2-4 for at least portions of the forecast area. At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a few storms producing strong wind gusts. Temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees below climo.

This weekend, a backdoor front slowly sags down the MidAtlantic coast, approaching the area but currently forecast to remain near the NC/VA border.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Evening/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions are present this evening across the airspace, and are expected to continue through the TAF period. Overnight there will be a small threat for some low stratus (~1000 ft), but confidence is low as to whether stratus will be numerous enough to produce ceilings at any terminals.
Tomorrow, VFR conditions continue, but better chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms may lead to some brief sub- VFR conditions at times.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...A series of mid-level systems will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings for areas that see meaningful rainfall.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...

Wind gusts of 25-30 kts are now being seen over the Pamlico and Croatan/Roanoke Sounds, as well as across the nearshore waters north of Ocracoke Inlet. With these observations, and the peak of the thermal gradient still to come, have expanded the SCAs to the coastal waters for a short duration event until early tomorrow morning.

Improving conditions overnight with winds becoming SW 15-20 kts, and then winds increase again tomorrow afternoon and evening to SW 15-25 kts. Seas mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0430 Tuesday...High pressure remains centered over the Wern Atlantic this week with a series of systems pushing across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with SW winds around 10-20 kt (occasionally higher gusts possible), highest in the late afternoon and evening with thermal gradient peaking. Seas generally around 3-4 ft during the long term period, however the dominant period through at least midweek will be on the shorter wind wave side, 5-6sec. So, expect bumpy 3-4ft wind waves out of the S/SW on top of weakening 1-2ft long period swell out of the east.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135-150- 152-154-231.