Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:31 PM EDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:55AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 806 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds this afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy late. A chance of showers and tstms until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely, then a chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 211506
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1106 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north
carolina through mid week as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move
through the region this weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1100 am Wednesday... Short wave evident in mdls and
satellite across central nc is leading to decent cvrg of shra
across the region. Based on this increased init pops thru early mid
aftn over most of the region. Also appears as this short wave
passes E may see less cvrg inland later this aftn.

Prev disc... No major changes to the current forecast as mid and
high level clouds continue over the region. Some sprinkles
earlier along the crystal coast have dissipated. Moist southwest
flow coupled with some weak shortwave energy in the mid-levels
today will lead to a decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the later afternoon and evening
hours. Using a consensus of some of the high-resolution models,
would expect the best chance for convective initiation to again
be the northern and western tier, mainly west of highway 17 and
north of highway 264. Will have 40-50 percent pops in these
areas, tapering to just a slight chance along the southern coast
and southern outer banks. High temperatures today will be
mostly within a degree or two of 90 degrees, except mid 80s
outer banks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
As of 340 am Wednesday... Coverage of showers and storms should
diminish by late evening inland, but given the very moist
airmass, will keep low rain chances near the immediate coast
through the overnight hours. Very warm and humid once again
tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
As of 300 am wed... High pressure will extend over the area
Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected. A cold
front will approach the area Friday, and then slowly cross
through the forecast area over the weekend, leading to another
period of unsettled weather which may continue into next week.

Thursday and Friday... Lee trough over central nc will help kick
off some showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon over the
coastal plain, with the sea breeze possibly sparking some
additional activity closer to the coast. Will keep chance pops
through the evening inland, and then shift pops over the coast
Thursday night as some offshore convection is expected to
develop and may move over coastal areas overnight. A cold front
will slowly move into the area Friday, and will act to trigger
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorm especially
over the northern sections of the area. Have chance to likely
pops for this region, with some heavy rain and training cells
possible.

High temps both days will reach the low 90s inland, and the mid
to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday... Better agreement between model guidance
has finally been reached, and it looks like the cold front will
slowly drop through nc on Saturday, passing south of the region
and off the southern nc coast by Saturday night. Have increased
pops to likely at times over the weekend where the best
coverage of precip is anticipated as the front moves south.

Heavy rain and training of cells is possible and flooding may be
an issue, especially considering the copious amounts of rain we
have seen this past week.

On the bright side, cooler temps are expected, with temps
ranging from the low to upper 80s on Saturday... Highest along
the southern coast, where it will stay dry the longest. Then on
Sunday, low 80s expected everywhere as cooler air moves in up in
northern nc, and cloudy conditions limit highs over the southern
tier. Low temps more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s to
low mid 70s.

Monday and Tuesday... Model differences exist for the start of
next week, with the GFS stalling the front and immediately
bringing it back north on Monday leading to more rain chances,
while the ECMWF keeps the front stalled and more less over the
gulf stream, with high pressure building in from the north,
keeping the area mostly dry. Will hedge towards a middle ground
for now, and keep chance pops both Monday and Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will likely continue with highs only in the low to
mid 80s, and low temps into the 60s and low 70s.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term through 12z Thursday ...

as of 720 am Wednesday... Despite a very moist airmass, mid and
high level clouds have help prevent much in the way of fog early
this morning. Expect a similar setup tonight with sufficient
debris cloudiness from daytime convection to preclude much of
the morning fog. Afternoon diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 315 am wed... MostlyVFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection
develops as a cold front moves into the area. The front will
slowly move south through the airspace this weekend, leading to
some periods of extended low visibilities and ceilings with
continued high chances for rain and thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term today and tonight ...

as of 940 am Wednesday..No changes with high pres offshore and
trof to the W producing ssw winds 10 to 20 kts. Will cont to
monitor for poss brief SCA late today into tonight pamlico
sound and portion of coastal wtrs.

Prev disc... Breezy SW winds of 15-20 knots being observed at
daybreak over the pamlico sound and the northern waters, with
10-15 knot winds elsewhere. Seas are 2-3 feet with 10-11 second
swell periods. With an approaching surface trough to the west
and bermuda high pressure lingering offshore, the gradient will
tighten later today and into tonight. Current indication are for
sw winds of 15-20 knots, with a few gusts to 25 knots. Latest
nwps swan model indicates only a small and brief area of 6-foot
seas, so will hold off on any SCA for now and let the dayshift
re- evaluate based on later guidance.

Long term Thursday through Sunday ...

as of 320 am wed... Near small craft conditions will be possible
from Thursday morning through early Saturday morning, with winds
sw 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Seas will be
mostly 4-5 ft, but some periods of 6 ft seas are possible over
the outer portions of the coastal waters. Will hold off on
an advisory for now.

Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front
enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts
Saturday morning, and then as the front slowly sinks south
Saturday, winds will turn to the N NE behind it, but turn to the
s south of the front around 10 kts. Winds will then turn to the
ne on Sunday for all waters and range from 10-15 kts over the
northern waters to 5-10 kts over the southern waters. 3-5 ft
seas will continue through Saturday morning, and then seas
become 2-4 ft through Sunday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sgk
aviation... Ctc sgk
marine... Rf ctc sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi24 min WSW 12 G 18 83°F 84°F1019.4 hPa
41159 31 mi32 min 84°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi50 min SSW 12 G 15 87°F 84°F1018.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi24 min SW 14 G 16 84°F 84°F1018.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi22 min 84°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi24 min WSW 12 G 19 79°F 84°F1019.6 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi44 min SSW 8.9 G 13 85°F 84°F1019.8 hPa
WLON7 39 mi50 min 89°F 85°F1019.1 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi32 min SW 12 G 15 85°F 1018.8 hPa (+0.0)75°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi96 minWSW 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F72°F61%1018.6 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi95 minSW 1310.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

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Last 24hrSW5W7SW6S8--S8S5SW4SW4SW3----------SW4SW3S4S5----SW11SW8
G14
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1 day agoS9SE11S7S11S8S10S6N13S7Calm------SW5--W4SW4W4W3W4W6SW6W5SW6
2 days agoW9NW7W7W8W6W6SW5S6S5SW5SW4--SW5--W7SW7SW6W4CalmW3SW5NW4E3E6

Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
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Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:06 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.82.21.610.60.50.71.31.92.63.13.33.22.72.11.510.70.71.11.62.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.221.71.20.80.50.50.611.522.32.42.321.61.20.80.70.70.91.31.72

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.