Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sneads Ferry, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:04PM Monday November 18, 2019 11:53 AM EST (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 951 Am Est Mon Nov 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 knots, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 12 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop this afternoon. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except around 2 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads Ferry, NC
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location: 34.54, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181105
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
605 am est Mon nov 18 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will swing through the area this
afternoon. A mainly dry cold front will push through Tuesday
with high pressure building into the area Wednesday and
Thursday. Another cold front will push through this weekend.

Near term through today
As of 605 am mon... No changes needed with am update.

As of 3 am mon... Big change with this fcst package was to
increase pops markedly this afternoon. Low pres off the mid
atlantic coast will continue to move away from the region and
lose its influence on the weather for E nc today. The low is
being kicked out by vigorous shortwave trough that will swing
through the region today, and will be the impetous for rain
development this afternoon. Despite little in the way of sfc
reflection, strong divergence aloft will be associated with the
shortwave, and will signify a high pop low QPF event, with
widespread stratiform light rain moving in after noon. Qpf
amounts will generally only avg around a tenth of an inch or so,
with highest pops across the N and W where 60-70% advertised.

It will continue to be quite cool, as widespread low clouds hang
on with light NW breezes. Highs temps no higher than low 50s
inland to mid 50s on the coast.

Short term tonight
As of 3 am mon... The aformentioned shortway will quickly pivot
through this evening, taking with it the light rain. In its
place fog and low stratus will develop, as plentiful low level
moisture will be trapped beneath strengthening subsidene
inversion with building weak high pres. Some of the fog may
become dense, though difficult to say this far out whether the
sub 500ft cloud deck will dominate and limit a dense fog threat.

However, the ingredients will be there for some dense fog. For
now, will highlight areas of fog in grids.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
As of 230 am mon... Mostly quiet weather with near to slightly
below normal temps expected through much of this week, with
unsettled weather developing late week into the weekend.

Strong high pressure will build over the region in the wake of
the low Tuesday through Thursday. Decent shortwave will push
through the area Tue and Tue evening, which could trigger
isolated to widely scattered light showers. Will keep sc pop
along the coast during the evening, but may need to be expanded
if guidance trends wetter. Temperatures will be fairly close to
climatology, with highs in the low mid 60s and lows in the
low mid 40s.

While differences exist in the details and placement of surface
features, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a return of unsettled
weather Friday into the weekend. A frontal boundary moves into
the region during the day Friday with increased chances of rain.

The ECMWF develops a strong low that moves inland across the
tennessee valley, while the GFS shows more of a miller type-b
setup with a strong low forming off the carolina coast. Both
models are fairly moist and would indicate high rain chances.

Though given the uncertainty this far out in the forecast, esp
with respect to timing, will continue chance pops for now, but
if current trends continue, pops will need to be increased.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 605 am mon... Plenty of moisture is expected to remain
socked below a strong low- level inversion keeping sub-vfr
conditions through the period. Mostly ifr this morning, then
improving to MVFR for western sites. Area of light rain moves
through this afternoon, then a return to ifr lifr on Mon night
as very low clouds and fog develop in wake of the rain. There
could be some pockets of dense fog.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... Some lingering fog and stratus expected
early Tue morning, lifting toVFR by mid to late morning. Expect
predVFR Tue afternoon through Thu with high pressure in
control. Unsettled weather returns late in the week as front
moves into the area with some pds of sub-vfr likely.

Marine
Short term through Monday ...

as of 605 am mon... Cancelled SCA for albemarle croatan sounds
and neuse river.

Prev discussion... As of 3 am mon... N winds 15-25 kt all
waters, with gusts still flirting with gales across the coastal
waters at times. Will cont SCA all morning, then expect wind to
diminish below SCA criteria mid day Monday for sounds and neuse
river. SCA for high seas will continue through Tue however as
long period large swells take their time subsiding. Winds
tonight will be NW and will generally be in the 10-15 kt range
behind a departing upr level disturbance.

Long term Tuesday through Friday ...

as of 230 am mon... Nw winds will remain fairly light tue,
generally 10 kt or less, with elevated seas slowly subsiding
through the day. Expect to see all wtrs dropping below 6 ft by
late Tue tue evening. High pres will build across Wed and thu
with NW winds 10 to 20 kts Tue night and Wed becoming light w
later thu. Expect wsw winds to increase to 15-25 kt ahead of an
approaching front Thu night and fri, and could see sca
conditions develop fri.

Seas will be 3 to 5 ft wed, though could see lingering 6 ft
seas on the outer central waters with moderate NW flow per nwps
and ecmwf. Seas will temporarily subside to 2-4 ft thu, then
building back to 4-6 ft fri.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 230 pm Sunday... Strong low pressure will slowly drift away
from the area through this evening, then lift quickly away from
the area Monday. We are just coming off the highest tide cycle
expected for this event and have seen many area of ocean
overwash along the obx. With very rough seas with decent wave
energy and run up, could continue to see area experience
overwash during the next two high tide cycles, though not as
severe as this past high tide.

Winds have shifted to the north through the morning and have
seen the water levels begin to recede along the neuse river
this afternoon, while rising along southern portions of hatteras
island and ocracoke where minor coastal flooding has begun.

Winds will slowly diminish through Monday and expect sound side
flooding to gradually improve through tonight.

Will drop the coastal flood advisory for tyrrell, mainland dare,
mainland hyde and beaufort counties with the afternoon package
and downgrade the warning across the obx, downeast carteret,
southern craven, and pamlico counties with the afternoon
forecast package.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... High surf advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ncz196-
203>205.

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
ncz203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Tuesday for amz150-152-154.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Tuesday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Rf cqd
aviation... Cqd tl
marine... Cqd tl
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41064 31 mi45 min NE 7.8 G 16 54°F 74°F1009 hPa
41159 31 mi53 min 73°F7 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi59 min W 2.9 G 6 48°F 58°F1010 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 34 mi45 min W 3.9 G 9.7 48°F 62°F1010 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 34 mi43 min 62°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi45 min NNW 7.8 G 16 44°F
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 38 mi59 min NNE 9.9 G 13 48°F 56°F1009.7 hPa
WLON7 39 mi59 min 48°F 55°F1010.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi53 min N 12 G 14 49°F 1009.4 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC13 mi57 minN 410.00 miOvercast48°F43°F83%1009.8 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi1.9 hrsNNE 1110.00 miOvercast48°F0°F%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:07 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:35 AM EST     3.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.31.710.50.30.50.91.62.433.43.43.12.51.81.10.50.30.40.81.42.12.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:05 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:09 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.71.30.80.40.30.40.71.21.82.32.52.52.31.81.30.80.40.30.40.71.11.61.9

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.