Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vandenberg AFB, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/718 AM.

***UPDATE***

The late season Santa Ana Wind event has materialized across the San Gabriel Mountains, with gusts in the 25-40 mph range, and a few of the hot spots have reached 50+ mph. Winds are beginning to pick up across the Santa Susannas, with gusts 30+ mph. There still exists quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the Santa Anas through the valleys and down to the Oxnard Plain today. The very deep marine layer will battle the offshore flow push, and northeast winds may not surface at very noticeable speeds, especially at the coasts.

There is a concern regarding fire weather today across the San Gabriels and Santa Susanas due to the offshore winds following a long stretch of warm and very dry conditions. Elevated to brief critical conditions will continue through this afternoon.

Confidence is high in a general warming and drying trend today due to offshore influences and weak onshore gradients this afternoon. This trend will continue through Wednesday, with weak northeast winds expected over the mountains tomorrow.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is about 5000 ft deep and marine layer stratus covers much of the csts and vlys of LA and VTA counties. The low clouds should dissipate earlier than normal as the pressure grads shift offshore. There will be a 10 mb offshore trend in the E/W direction and this will help develop a Santa Ana wind event despite not much in the way of actual offshore flow or upper support. Most of the passes and canyons will have gusty NE winds but the advisory level gusts will be confined to the mtns. Almost all of the csts and vlys will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming today with max temps across the csts and vlys in the 70s and lower 80s.

There will be weaker offshore flow on Tuesday but it will hinder any attempt of the marine layer to reform with only the Long Beach area vulnerable to morning low clouds. Any canyon winds that do develop in the morning will be well under advisory criteria. The warming trend will continue with 1 to 3 degrees of warming expected across the csts; 3 to 6 degrees in he vlys and 5 to 8 further inland. The inland areas greater warming trend is due to the lack of cool air advection that will occur today. The max temps across the csts/vlys will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Wednesday should be a sunny day with little or no marine layer stratus in the morning. It will be the warmest day for the csts and vlys as max temps there will warm another 1 to 3 degrees. Look for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/205 AM.

Weak upper level flow will be atop of Srn CA for the xtnd period.
There will be few if any weather concerns during the period. At the sfc there will be increasing onshore flow each day. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. The marine layer clouds will also increase in coverage and duration every day. By the weekend there will be a strong enough onshore push to the W that will generate gusty near advisory level gusts in the western Antelope Vly and foothills. The increase in onshore flow and marine layer coupled with slowly falling hgts will bring about a 4 day cooling trend. Friday will have the most noticeable cooling of 4 to 6 degrees. By Sunday max temps will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the csts and upper 70s and lower 80s in the vlys. These max temps are 1 to 3 degrees blo normal.

AVIATION
18/1731Z.

At 1633Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z Package.
VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a moderate chance of MVFR CIGs at KLGB and KLAX 10Z-16Z Tuesday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06Z Tuesday. Moderate chance of MVFR CIGs around 015 from 10Z-16Z Tuesday. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

MARINE
18/729 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will linger through tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Seas may linger near 10 ft across the waters beyond 5NM from shore through this morning. From this afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).