Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:52 PM EST (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 959 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Friday...
Overnight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 959 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Saturday with widespread rainfall. Drying conditions and high pressure will follow for Sun into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 130301 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1001 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico will move along the Carolina coast Friday evening, pushing a cold front offshore Friday night. Canadian high pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow for mid-week.

UPDATE. Main focus of this update was to delay the onset of substantial rain by several hours based on radar and recent high-res models. Very light echoes on radar across the Pee Dee were recorded as 'drizzle' at Kingstree and Camden AWOS stations. Small tweaks to temperatures, dewpoints, and winds also made.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Main forecast concern for the next 36 hours is the onset timing of moderate to heavy rainfall at times, which may bring minor flooding to poor drainage and low lying areas.

High pressure over the northeast will continue to move eastward and bring northeast winds across the Cape Fear Region. As a result of the combination of the offshore Gulf Stream flow, a coastal low is expected to develop ahead of an upper level shortwave trough. Latest model guidance has light rain starting inland during the overnight hours along the I-95 corridor and will spread toward the coastline Friday morning. The heaviest widespread rainfall will occur during the day Friday, with precipitation rates slowing evening. Heavy brief rainfall is also likely to occur within the strongest rain showers Friday night, but mainly additional accumulations are anticipated to be light. Most model soundings have main instability remaining offshore, so chances inland for thunderstorms is limited, although a non-zero chance for some rumbles mainly near the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A progressive pattern continues as mid-level shortwaves will continue to cross over the regions. The forecast still calls for a surface low-pressure area to move northeast up the coast on Saturday, and high pressure will briefly move into the forecast area Saturday night. The 12 UTC GFS, ECMWF, GEFS are fairly similar with timing and the main low is up the coast, similar to a Miller Type A pattern. The 12 UTC ECMWF mean shows 12 to 15 members with low-pressure areas over the Appalachian's more of a Miller Type-B evolution; most of the other members are clustered over northeast North Carolina early Saturday. At this time prefer the Miller Type A solution. The chances of rain will wane by noon, with the GFS hanging on the rain a bit longer.

High temperatures will reach the mid-60s at the coast and the lower 60s inland. Lows Saturday night are forecast to fall into the mid-40s at the coast and near 40 west of Interstate 95.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. A second mid-level trough will be over the Mississippi Valley on late Tuesday. At the surface the 12 UTC GFS, GEFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean are in fairly good agreement with a low developing and being over the Ark-La-Miss Monday mid-day Monday. All the global models and ensemble means are in decent agreement driving the front through the eastern Carolina during the day on Tuesday. Amounts of rainfall range between 0.25" and 0.5" with this front. High temperatures will be in the low 60s Sunday and the mid to upper 60s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday Highs will be in the lower 50s. Low temperature will vary from the low to mid-40s Monday morning to mid to upper 50s Tuesday. With the frontal passage on Tuesday, low temperatures will fall into the lower 30s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Widespread MVFR expected to continue across the area as a tongue of low-level moisture surges northward from the Gulf Stream. Look for ceilings to lower IFR, overnight from south to north, and likely last through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances ramp up tomorrow morning, becoming heavier into the afternoon. At least IFR conditions are expected by Friday morning with LIFR/VLIFR possible. Surface winds remain out of the NE through tomorrow afternoon between 5-10 kts, with gusts along coastal SC this afternoon and evening. Winds at 2000 ft after sundown tonight will increase to near 30 kts out of the SE, just shy of LLWS TAF inclusion.

Extended Outlook . MVFR/IFR likely through Saturday afternoon as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday as a cold front approaches.

MARINE. Tonight through Friday Night: Waves between 4 and 7 feet from the northeast between 6 and 8 seconds and northeast winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts continue today and tonight with conditions gradually improving into Friday. A coastal low develops Friday and brings chances for showers and thunderstorms offshore, especially beyond 10 NM. Once the low passes Friday, gusty winds and small craft advisory conditions likely to return Saturday.

Saturday through Monday: A deepening low-pressure area will be moving north away from the coastal waters on Saturday. As the low exits offshore flow will see winds in the 15 to 20-knot range with possible small craft conditions at 20 nm off the coast between Surf City and Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet and the South Santee River for seas of 6 feet through last Saturday night. As the low exits off the coast winds and seas will decrease on Monday. This calmer marine conditions will be short-lived as a frontal boundary approaches and southerly winds will be on the increase late Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.



SYNOPSIS . TRA UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi58 min N 12 G 15 44°F 55°F1029.1 hPa
WLON7 26 mi58 min 42°F 53°F1029.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi42 min 56°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi44 min NE 18 G 25 49°F 56°F1028.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi44 min ENE 23 G 31 55°F 67°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi56 minNNE 710.00 miFair37°F33°F86%1031.3 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi56 minN 610.00 miFair38°F33°F83%1030.8 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi59 minNNE 610.00 miFair40°F34°F79%1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOAJ

Wind History from OAJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------N7NE9NE12--NE13N12NE13
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1 day ago--------------NW7N8NW9
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N9N9N9N8N8N7----N3N4--------
2 days agoS11S10S9SW9S8S10S10SW8SW9--SW11S17
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.21.31.210.70.50.20-0.10.10.61.11.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.30.10

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:36 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:25 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:46 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0-0.10.41.22.23.13.53.53.22.51.810.4000.51.32.12.72.82.62.11.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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