Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday June 4, 2020 10:31 PM EDT (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 944 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 944 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds will prevail the remainder of this week as high pressure holds offshore. A cold front drops into the area Sunday, as high pressure builds in from the north early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 050145 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 945 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moisture from the south will begin to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A cold front will cross the coast late Sunday, bringing slightly cooler air into the region Monday and Tuesday, with lower chances for showers and storms. Rain chances increase by midweek as temperatures rise.

UPDATE. Latest radar shows development of showers and thunderstorms tonight have been slow. Adjusted timing of precipitation further into the overnight. Otherwise no major changes to the forecast tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. One more dry aftn expected today before rain chances increase for the remainder of the week. Moisture in both low and mid levels increases this evening from S to N, and in tandem with increasing mid-level shortwave energy approaching the area from the SW, will lead to a good chance of shra/tstms especially over coastal areas overnight through Fri morning. After potentially a brief break later in the morning/midday Fri, with sfc dewpoints above 70 and weak troughing aloft, environment is favorable for scattered aftn TSTMs. Not expecting any severe wx due to weak parameters like shear. Chances for rain then diminish through Fri night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The mid levels will feature a modest trough in place which has an attendant cold front. This front will push south and east offshore slowly through the period. The front will get active on a daily basis with good chance pops Saturday and more modest values Sunday. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s Saturday cooling slightly Sunday with overnight lows just a notch or two above normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A highly amplified Omega pattern develops at the mid levels through the period as what remains of Cristobal meshes with a mid level trough across the upper Mississippi Valley. A deep cutoff low will develop in the Atlantic leaving a sharp ridge in between the aforementioned features. At the surface high pressure anchored by the sharp ridge will be in control most of the period from the northeast. The first couple of days should be dry then pops inch back into the forecast as the long since passed front drifts back to the north possibly reinforced late by a front from a passing trough. Temperatures will be a little on the cool side with the northeast flow but overall not much deviation from normal.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR for much of the next 3 hours, then moisture increasing from the south will help bring VCTS/VCSH and CB after closer to 03Z for SC terminals and 06z for NC terminals. MVFR ceilings possible as chances increase for thunderstorms and vicinity CB. Lingering MVFR may continue after sunrise, but VFR returns Friday afternoon.

Extended Outlook . Increasing moisture will bring thunderstorms Friday afternoon through mid week with varying flight restrictions.

MARINE. SSW flow continues tonight through Fri night with high pressure anchored well offshore. Speeds in the 10-15 kt range increase to 15- 20 kt Fri, with occasional gusts up to 25 kt especially over the NC coastal waters. No swell component anticipated during this timeframe, with just persistent 2-3 ft 4-5 second S waves tonight increasing to 3-5 ft at 5-6 seconds Fri into Fri night.

A southwest flow on the higher end of a 10-15 knot range will be in place Saturday and into early Sunday ahead of a front. The front will basically drift across the waters Sunday leading to erratic winds but still mostly southwest. Finally a northeast to mostly easterly flow will develop and persist into next week. The prolonged nature of the southwest fetch early may allow some six foot seas to develop across the outer waters thus representing the highest values of the period. Otherwise 2-4 feet seas will suffice.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ054-056. NC . Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MCK NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . MCK MARINE . MAS/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 12 77°F 74°F1015.6 hPa
WLON7 26 mi44 min 75°F 76°F1016.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi52 min 76°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi84 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 76°F1015.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi84 min SW 9.7 G 14 77°F 77°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi36 minSSW 810.00 miFair74°F64°F74%1016.4 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi36 minS 610.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1016.4 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi39 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds76°F66°F74%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOAJ

Wind History from OAJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:56 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:05 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.61.61.51.20.90.70.40-0.10.10.611.21.31.310.70.50.30-0.10

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:11 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.2-0.30.10.91.92.732.92.51.810.3-0.2-0.30.112.23.23.83.93.52.82

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.