Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:54PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1031 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night.
Sat..S winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1031 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will persist into Friday. A cold front will move into the area Friday then stall for the weekend. The front will be accompanied by an increase in unsettled weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200124
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
924 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Bermuda high and piedmont trough, typical of summertime, will
persist into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon and evening. A cold front will move into the area
Friday then stall for the weekend. The front will be accompanied
by an increase in unsettled weather.

Update
The forecast is in good shape as the feisty convection inland
is finally on the wane. Trends have this covered well.

Near term through Tuesday night
Despite moderate to strong surface-based instability this
afternoon (li of -6 to -8c), dry air aloft has largely
prohibited the vertical extent of cumulus, and subsequent
development of showers and tstms. Some clustering of CU is
occurring along the sea breeze boundary in horry and georgetown
counties, portions of the pee dee region, as well as along the
norther borders of bladen and pender counties, so these areas
may see an isolated shower or TSTM before the afternoon is done.

Otherwise, expect the late afternoon through overnight to be
relatively quiet, with lows falling slowly into the mid 70s
inland upper 70s coast. Widely scattered showers over the ocean
overnight may scrape the shore after midnight, but confidence is
too low to warrant adding small pops along the coast at this
time.

Deeper moisture will work its way across the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft during the overnight hours. Surface-based
instability will once again be plentiful, so shower and tstms
activity should have an easier time developing than it has had
today.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Break in the mid-level ridge over the southeast during the period
will allow for diurnal convection Wed and thu. The sea breeze and
piedmont trough will be the main features, however guidance is
showing a weak 5h shortwave riding up the west side of the ridge
over the western atlantic late Wed into thu. This feature could lead
to convection continuing well into Wed night before post wave
subsidence and loss of surface based instability brings an end to
convection after midnight. Not sold on it yet as the GFS has been
inconsistent with it and the ec keeps it farther inland and weaker.

Regardless of the feature or not, deep moisture will increase from
wed to Thu which, combined with diurnal instability, will lead to an
increase in storm coverage. Shower and thunderstorm coverage wed
will be around 30% with potential for twice that (or more) come
thu afternoon. Not going quite that high yet, but did increase
pop a bit thu. Highs will be slightly above climo while lows
will be well above climo.

Long term Friday through Monday
A cold front will move into the area late in the week and stall
across the area over the weekend. The mid-level trough pushing the
front south slips off the mid-atlantic coast sat, leaving the front
hanging in the carolinas. Surface and mid-level high building in
from the north-northwest eventually shift the boundary south, but
not until next week.

-widespread showers and thunderstorms Fri through mon. Stalled
front may maintain convection well after sunset.

-localized flooding could be a concern in areas that experience
multiple rounds of heavy rain.

-high temperatures near climo Fri will drop below climo sat
through mon.

-lows will be near to above climo.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR throughout the period. A few storms are hanging
around our inland areas this afternoon and some of the hi-res
models have development continuing until 03-06z, mainly around
the lbt area. By morning, a few areas could see stratus again.

This would mainly be at the inland areas. Fair weather cumulus
and a few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday, but otherwise a
quiet period.

Extended... Moisture returns on Monday evening leading to enhanced
chances of afternoon storms and morning stratus br throughout the
period.

Marine
Seabreeze-enhanced winds of around 15-18 kt will continue into
the evening near shore. Otherwise, bermuda high is the main synoptic
feature on the map in the near term, and will yield south-southwest
winds of 10-15 kt overnight. There will be a small chance for
isolated showers tstms developing overnight, however any development
should die off once the morning sea breeze circulation kicks in on
Tuesday. Southerly winds around 15 kt will persist on Tuesday.

Seas will be comprised of southerly 2-3 ft waves around 4 seconds,
and a 1-2 ft southeast swell at 9-10 seconds.

Bermuda high and piedmont trough will maintain south to southwest
flow through the end of the week. Speeds will vary from around 10 kt
overnight and in the morning increasing to near 15 kt with higher
gusts in the afternoon and evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning
will build closer to 3 ft with occasional 4 ft late in the
afternoon evening in response to the increase in winds. Seas will be
dominated by a south to southwest wind wave, around 4 seconds, with
some southeast swell component around 10 seconds developing late in
the week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... |ilm
update... Shk
near term... Crm
short term... Iii
long term... Iii crm
aviation... 21
marine... Iii crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi59 min SW 6 G 7 82°F 84°F1018.4 hPa
WLON7 26 mi59 min 80°F 85°F1018.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi43 min 84°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi45 min WSW 9.7 G 14 82°F 83°F1018.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi45 min W 14 G 19 81°F 84°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi2 hrsS 410.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1018.1 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi2 hrsS 710.00 miA Few Clouds75°F72°F90%1017.6 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi2 hrsSW 410.00 miFair82°F75°F82%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOAJ

Wind History from OAJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S5SW4SW4SW5SW5SW3CalmSW4SW3SW43W5S6SW4S7S11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3CalmCalmSW4W4NW44W56Calm4SW543SW3CalmS4S4
2 days agoNE3CalmSW3SW7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4S6S5SE6S6S7S6E64CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.20.611.31.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.10.40.81.21.31.31.31.10.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:05 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.41.81.10.60.40.511.72.53.13.33.12.72.11.50.90.60.60.91.52.32.93.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.