Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Burgaw, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:05 PM EST (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:10PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 913 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.gale watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 913 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the northwest overnight then shift offshore Sunday. A significant storm system will affect the area late Sunday into Monday, prompting a gale watch. High pressure returns to the area from the southwest late Monday, through Thursday, with a cooling trend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burgaw, NC
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location: 34.58, -77.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 290223 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 923 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably cool high pressure with variable clouds to maintain quiet weather overnight. Intensifying low pressure approaches late Sunday into Monday, leading to moderate to heavy rain and a marginal chance of severe weather. Colder and drier air will follow for much of next week.

UPDATE/.

No significant edits needed. Outbreaks of fog and mist have thus far remained shallow, partially inhibited by variable clouds. It may worsen over SE NC where most clearing is expected, and a Dense Fog Advisory cannot be ruled out overnight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Surface high weakly builds in from the northwest this evening as weak wave moves east, away from the Southeast coast. Mostly clear skies expected across the area for much of the night. High cloud will start spreading in from the southwest late tonight, but probably not soon enough to have a big impact on tonight's lows. Combination of weak cold advection, light northerly winds, mostly clear skies and drying low levels will allow for decent radiational cooling tonight. Lows in most areas still end above climo, but only by a few degrees. Cold spots/good radiators will end up near to slightly below climo.

Surface high slips off the coast Sun as flat pattern aloft starts to become amplified. Mid-level pattern shift is in response to southern stream cutoff opening up as it approaches from the west. Low level return flow around the backside of the high and southwest flow aloft helps spread warmth and moisture over the Southeast later Sun and Sun night. Warm front moves across the area around midnight, increasing warm advection and opening a small window where a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Low level jet increases to 60 kt and SRH goes bananas. However, the overnight timing is a significant limiting factor. Instability is lacking, setting up a high shear, low CAPE event. So while the SRH is off the charts, CAPE struggles to reach 100 J/kg (even using a best case scenario). Additionally there will be ongoing convection across the eastern FL panhandle. Convection in this area more often than not seems to disrupt convection locally. Do feel dynamics will be more than sufficient to support categorical pop, but not feel much less confident about the severe weather potential.

Temperatures above climo continue for most of the area Sun. Exception will be along the coast where east to southeast flow will keep highs closer to climo. Increase in warm advection after midnight will lead to rising temps overnight, with lows occurring before midnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Cold front and threat for severe weather will push through the area prior to sunrise. Will see lingering showers and a small chance of a residual thunderstorm on Monday morning. Showers will end quickly from west to east across the area during the day as cooler and much drier air builds into the area. Cold advection out of the SW will likely begin by early afternoon, so high temperatures are still likely to reach the lower 70s; falling throughout the afternoon. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s to around 40 with a blustery SW wind.

Clear and quiet on Tuesday as cold air advection continues and winds become westerly. Highs will remain below normal with a few of our inland areas staying in the 40s throughout the afternoon. High pressure continues to build toward the Carolinas Wednesday night. Winds become light, although remaining near 5 knots, inhibiting a perfect radiational cooling night. Still could see widespread readings in the upper 20s with temperatures near freezing along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure dominates Wednesday into Friday as temperatures slowly moderate under high pressure. Another upper-low will develop over southern Saskatchewan and push into the central US by Thursday night into Friday. The next disturbance will approach the area late Friday into Saturday. Rain chances will increase as the system brings another cold front through the area during the day on Saturday.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR with variable clouds above MVFR altitude. The partial clearing this evening will allow dense pockets of fog to develop over the area, especially interior air-fields across SE NC aft 4z. Light fog and mist early, over NE SC, may improve overnight as cloud cover thickens and expands overhead, above MVFR. A light and veering wind this TAF cycle from NNE to ESE, highest at 6-10 kt in afternoon from E-SE.

Extended Outlook . Additional MVFR/IFR conditions possible Sunday night through Monday due to low ceilings and visibility in rain. VFR becomes back Tuesday and stays for the foreseeable future.

MARINE. Tonight through Sunday Night . Surface high builds in weakly from the northwest tonight then quickly shifts off the coast Sun. Northeast flow overnight in the 10 to 15 kt range will increase to a solid 15 kt Sun afternoon as winds veer to east- southeast behind the exiting surface high. Gradient continues to tighten up as surface low develops along the eastern Gulf coast, strengthening as it lifts north. Low lifts a warm front across the waters Sun night, followed by increasing south to southwest winds. Speeds approaching 25 kt sustained with gusts around gale force will be possible by daybreak Monday. Seas 2 to 3 ft tonight through midday Sun will build Sun afternoon and evening, surpassing 6 ft during the evening and peaking at 6 to 8 ft by Mon morning.

Monday through Thursday . Hazardous marine conditions continue ahead of a strong cold front on Monday. Southerly and SW winds 20-30 knots with a few gusts up to 35 knots will continue on Monday as seas build to 5-8 feet. Cold front will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday and winds remain SW and W around 20-25 knots as cold advection produces gusts 25-30 knots over the warmer coastal waters. Seas peak up to 6-9 feet late Monday or early Tuesday. Winds become westerly near 20 knots on Tuesday as high pressure builds northeastward toward the Carolinas out of the Southeastern US. Conditions continue to improve on Wednesday as NW winds relax to around 10 knots and seas return to a calm 2-4 feet through the end of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for AMZ250-252-254-256.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MJC NEAR TERM . III SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . IGB MARINE . III/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi47 min N 5.1 G 6 58°F 65°F1019.4 hPa
WLON7 26 mi47 min 53°F 59°F1020 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 30 mi57 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 67°F1019.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 30 mi28 min 67°F2 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 30 mi80 min Calm 57°F 1019 hPa55°F
MBIN7 34 mi35 min N 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 1019 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi57 min N 7.8 G 12 65°F 72°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC19 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F45°F100%1021.3 hPa
MCAS New River, NC19 mi69 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F97%1020.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi72 minS 45.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F96%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOAJ

Wind History from OAJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmN43435CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoS6S8S9S13
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:52 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:29 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.31.20.90.60.40.2-0-00.30.711.31.41.41.20.90.70.40.200.10.5

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:22 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:12 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:10 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.71.52.433.33.22.92.31.60.90.50.20.40.91.72.42.82.82.41.91.30.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.