UPDATE
01Z surface analysis shows the center of surface high pressure offshore of New England, with an axis extending SW across the Mid-Atlantic states into the NC Piedmont and upstate SC. A moderate gradient is in place across the forecast area, which will maintain a northeast breeze on the order of 5-10 kt overnight. Extensive high cloudiness will continue to overspread the area from the SW. Have tweaked hourly temps in line with observations, but no other significant changes are necessary with the evening update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Quiet weather continues through Thursday with sfc high pressure still centered off to the NE and deep-layer moisture meager despite increasing high clouds. Sfc winds out of the ENE at 10-15 mph, gusting at times near the coast Thursday midday/aftn. Any rain chances will hold off until Thursday night or Friday when more favorable moisture profiles move into the area, but sprinkles are possible until then Thursday aftn.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The high-pressure ridge that has been in control continues to shift northward, with the remnants of Francine remaining to the west. The northeast flow will be well established, with the cold front remaining to the south. A coastal trough will developed off the coast late Thursday into Friday. As the trough develops, the chances of rain will increase from the east and spread to the west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Models continue to develop a low along a stationary front off the Southeast United Coast. It will slowly strengthen. Possibly developing into a subtropical (tropical) system late Sunday into Monday. The low will shift back to the northwest, with the blocking high to the north.  The 12Z UTC runs of the deterministic models show the center of the low moving onshore in the Carolinas. Stay Tuned. Expect a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, each with an increased opportunity late Sunday into Tuesday.  Highs will be in the lower 80s most of the time for the period, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The center of surface high pressure has shifted off the New England coast, with ENE winds continuing across the area. The high center will move very slowly to the east, resulting in continued ENE winds through Thursday. Clouds will thicken and lower through Thursday as moisture increases through the column, but VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Chances for rain and MVFR/IFR conditions increase Friday into the weekend.

MARINE
Through Thursday, ENE winds of 15-20 kt this period with sfc high pressure locked in place off to the NE. Seas 3-5 tonight, build to 4- 6 ft Thursday when a SCA is still in effect. The sea state will predominantly be easterly waves at 6-8 seconds.

Thursday Night through Monday, A trough of low pressure continues along the coastal waters on Thursday, and high pressure will ridge along the Appalachians. On Friday night, a low-pressure area will develop along a stationary front well off the east coast of Florida. This low will slowly strengthen into a possible subtropical storm. The northeast winds are expected to be 15 to 20 knots and increase to 25 knots Sunday night. Seas of 4 to 6 feet on Thursday night are expected to build to 8 to 10 north of Cape Fear and 6 to 8 feet south of Cape Fear. A Small Craft Advisory is likely throughout the period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: There will be a Moderate to High risk of rip currents for east to southeast facing beaches Thursday through early next week. In addition, will see a strong East to West longshore current across south facing beaches Thursday.
This may expand to strong north to south longshore currents across all other beaches Friday through the weekend. All of this due to increasing onshore NE-E winds and building Easterly swell impacting local beaches through this weekend and into early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108.
Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ056.
Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.