Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hasley Canyon, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/208 PM.

The forecast through Friday remains largely unchanged. The first of two upper level lows will move through tonight into Thursday morning bringing significant northerly winds to many areas, but especially the mountains. Winds are expected to reach at least 60 mph across the interior Santa Barbara mountains, in and around the mountains surrounding the Grapevine area, and in the San Gabriel Mountains. There's about a 30% chance of 60 mph gusts in the Santa Monica Mountains and 10-20% across the LA County portion of the Malibu coast. There could also be some isolated gusts 60 mph gusts in and around the Simi Valley hills, Santa Susana Mountains, and in the Porter Ranch area. Also, still expecting windy conditions filtering down into the West LA area and out across the coastal waters, including all the Channel Islands. One area to be mindful of that is currently not included in the current suite of wind hazards in the San Gabriel Valley. This is typically protected by the mountains but if the upper level jet shifts more to the north to align favorably over that area there could be some strong winds at times there as well but chances for that would be under 10% at this time.

Temperatures at higher elevations and far interior areas will drop several degrees Thursday but closer to the coast not much change expected as downslope warming will compensate for most of the cold air advection.

Some light showers are still possible (30-50%) near the north facing mountain slopes later tonight into Thursday morning with the snow level lowering rapidly overnight to possibly around 4000 feet, meaning some very light snow is possible near the summit on I5, but only a 5% chance or less of any accumulations at that level.

The pattern will shift from a north flow wind event to a traditional Santa Ana event Friday into Saturday with offshore gradients between 6 and 8mb. Temperatures will be on the rise, especially by Saturday with most coast/valley areas in the mid to upper 70s and possibly an isolated 80. Many of the previous wind advisories and warnings will be back in play Friday and Saturday with the focus shifting to the usual Santa Ana wind favored areas, which would not include the LA Basin, the San Gabriel Valley, or SLO and SB Counties, except possibly the Santa Lucias.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/215 PM.

Offshore gradients will continue into Sunday but with slowly weakening upper support and a much warmer air mass. Will likely need continue wind advisories in many of the same areas.
Temperatures will be warming up quite a bit with highs in 80s for most coast/valley areas, including the Central Coast. There's event about a 40-50% chance of lower 90s across LA/Ventura Counties.

Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week, though light onshore flow is expected to return Tuesday and highs will be back into the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION
04/2019Z.

Around 1915Z, the marine layer was around 2200 ft deep at KLAX.
The top of the inversion was around 3300 feet with a temperature near 17 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence exists in the current forecast. High confidence exists in the forecast in desert terminals. Lower confidence exists in the forecast for all remaining terminals, lowest for Los Angeles County coastal terminals. Timing of winds and flight category changes could be off by up to two hours earlier or later. Periods of moderate to strong wind shear and turbulence will be possible after 20Z. There is chance that MVFR conditions may linger through the day at Ventura and Los Angeles County coastal terminals.

KLAX.. MVFR conditions could clear as soon as 21Z but more likely around 22Z. There is a 30 percent chance of clearing at all with MVFR conditions remaining in at KLAX through at least 08Z Thursday. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after 07Z Thursday. There is a 20 percent chance that wind gusts to 25 knots may not occur after 10Z. There is a 10 percent chance of sustained northerly cross winds greater than 20 knots between 10Z and 16Z. Periods of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and turbulence are likely between 10Z and 16Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, but there is a low chance of MVFR visibilities developing overnight for up to two hours. North winds greater than 10 knots are likely after 04Z Thursday. There is a 10 percent chance that wind gusts to 25 knots may not occur after 10Z. There is a 20 percent chance of sustained northerly winds greater than 20 knots between 08Z and 16Z. Periods of moderate to strong low-level wind shear and turbulence are likely between 08Z and 16Z.

MARINE
04/1219 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in the forecast for seas. Seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially today through Saturday.

Marine weather conditions will deteriorate through tonight with widespread strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and GALE conditions expected through at least Thursday night. GALE WARNINGS remain in effect through Friday morning for some waters.

Another period of strong winds will develop across the region as an offshore flow pattern will set up Friday through Sunday. There is a high to likely (40 to 60 percent) chance of SCA level winds between Friday night and Sunday. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of GALE FORCE wind gusts inside the southern California bight, and high (40-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds along the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 87-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 88-371>375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 AM PST Thursday for zones 346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 349>352-356-357-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 7 AM PST Thursday for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 362-369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).