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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 216 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.

PZZ600 216 Pm Pst Fri Dec 1 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 21z or 1 pm pst, a 1028 mb high was 700 nm W of point conception and a 1009 mb low was over southern utah.

FXUS66 KLOX 012259 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 259 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
01/139 PM.

Cool and breezy conditions are expected through at least Saturday, with the strongest winds in the mountains. A warming trend will start Saturday and continue through the middle of next week, with breezy Santa Ana winds. Cooler onshore flow will return for the end of next week, with a small chance for light rain.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...01/156 PM.

A northerly jet aloft (80 knots) coupled with moderate north- to-south surface pressure gradients (LAX-BFL and SBA-BFL at -4 to -5 millibars) continued to produce gusty northerly winds over the area. The winds have relaxed a little from this morning, and are a little weaker than expected, but still expecting the winds to increase some this evening which is typical for this type of wind. As such, will keep the current suite of Wind Advisories going, but they may need to be cancelled if the winds do not pick up in a few hours. Clouds continue over the north slopes and look primed to increase in coverage overnight once again. While rain is not mentioned in the forecast, there is a 10 percent chance of a shower or two popping up there into Saturday.

It will feel rather cold again tonight thanks to the lingering cold air mass with dry and clear skies. Lows between 35 and 45 will be common. Breezy north to northeast winds will linger into Saturday morning, but well below Advisory levels. Temperatures will increase a bit and touch normal during the day on Saturday, thanks to a warming airmass. Otherwise, Saturday looks like a fairly benign weather day.

High pressure aloft will build over California on Sunday and Monday. Offshore pressure gradients will strengthen some as the surface high slides into the Great Basin, leading to sub-Advisory northeast winds. Gusts of 20 to 35 mph will be common over the wind prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, with similar to even slight stronger winds (isolated gusts to 40 mph) over San Luis Obispo and interior Santa Barbara Counties which is more on the rarer side. All of this will add up to a healthy warming trend, with daytime highs of 65 to 75 common by Monday. Skies will be generally clear with slim to no chances of low clouds, but most projections do show a large swath of mid-level clouds moving through the area on Monday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...01/155 PM.

Little change expected from Monday through Wednesday or Thursday, with above normal temperatures and breezy offshore flow. There is very good ensemble consensus on that. Cooling conditions with increasing onshore flow will likely follow on Thursday or Friday.
A handful of the projections have a trough moving through California during that time, with about 10 to 20 percent of them resulting in light rain. Beyond that, most ensemble projections show a return of offshore flow for the next weekend.

AVIATION
01/2258Z.

At 2245Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

High confidence in 00Z TAF package as continued northerly flow will maintain CAVU conditions for all sites through the period.
With northerly winds, there will continue to be some light turbulence and LLWS across the mountains and foothills.

KLAX...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions will persist through the period. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as CAVU conditions will persist through the period.

MARINE
01/156 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for the entire area, with a 60-80% chance of Gale Force winds through this afternoon from the Channel Islands south to San Nicolas Island.
For Sunday through Monday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds continuing, especially from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island, lowering to a 30% chance of SCA level winds on Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, especially this afternoon and evening.
For tonight and Saturday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds. For Sunday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. SCA level winds will continue through the evening across the western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. By late tonight, winds should diminish below SCA levels. For Saturday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel again. For Saturday night through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, especially in the overnight and morning hours. For Tuesday, high confidence winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 88-352-353-372-376>379-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Ventura
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:08 AM PST     3.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 AM PST     3.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:46 AM PST     5.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:48 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:52 PM PST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ventura, California, Tide feet

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:02 AM PST     3.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:25 AM PST     2.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM PST     5.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:46 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:47 PM PST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California, Tide feet

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