Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:33PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 346 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt becoming nw. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of showers early this evening.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds, increasing to 9 seconds in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 162217
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
617 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Developing low pressure will move up the east coast tonight and
push a cold front offshore this evening. Cooler high pressure
will build in late week and into the weekend. An unsettled
pattern is expected late in the weekend into early next as
several systems impact the area.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
As of 615 pm wed... Last band of shra along cold front rapidly
pushing E near cst and will be offshore shortly with dry weather
and clearing skies in its wake.

Prev disc... The main area of warm advection initiated
precipitation is moving rapidly northeast and will be offshore
around 20z. Behind this a couple of lines of showers were
developing ahead of rapidly advancing surface cold front moving
east into the area. This front was associated with a vertically
stacked low over the great lakes. Ahead of the front, it looks
like a weak surface low was trying to form vicinity of cape
lookout in region of 5 mb 3 hourly pressure falls and bagginess
in the pressure pattern. The cold front should catch up with the
low offshore of the outer banks early this evening and begin to
rapidly deepen as it moves up the eastern seaboard overnight.

Not expecting much if any precipitation after 23z as strong
cold dry advection begins behind the cold front. Skies will
clear and winds will shift to NW and increase, especially along
the coast. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s
inland, and low to mid 50s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
As of 325 pm wed... High pressure will build over the area from
the north with much cooler and drier air. Highs will be in the
low to mid 60s under sunny skies. Brisk NW winds combined with
the cooler temps will make it finally feel like fall.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 330 am Wednesday... High pressure will build in through
the early weekend bringing a cooler and drier airmass. An
unsettled pattern is expected late in the weekend into early
next week as several systems impact the area.

Thursday night through Saturday... Strong high pressure builds
in from the west Thursday night and Friday bringing a dry and a
much cooler airmass. Lows around 40 inland to low to mid 50s
along the coast and we could even see some upper 30s in coolest
inland locations. The upper ridge crests over the area Saturday
with the surface high migrating offshore with return flow
developing late Sat bringing a warming trend with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday night through Tuesday... Upper ridging slides offshore
Saturday night while shortwave energy moving across the south
taps into rich moisture in the gulf of mexico and lifts it
across the southeast and the fa Sunday into Monday. This is
associated with the trough that is currently over southern
mexico and outlooked by nhc. Guidance has tended a bit faster
with this system and could see precip begin across the area late
Saturday night or Sunday with an area of low pressure lifting
across the area Monday. Meanwhile, a longwave mid level trough
and attendant strong cold front digs into the central conus
Monday with another surge of gulf moisture lifting into the area
Monday night ahead of the cold front which is currently progged
to push across the area late Tuesday. Temps expected to be
several degrees above normal ahead of the cold front.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 615 pm wed... Any lingering MVFR scu will be gone shortly
with high confidence inVFR rest of period with clr skies
expected as much cooler and drier airmass spreads in. Wnw winds
may gust 15 to 20 kts early this evening cst and all areas thu
from mid morn on.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... High pressure builds into the area
Thursday night through Saturday with predVFR conditions
expected. An area of low pressure will lift toward the area late
in the weekend with shower chances increasing late Saturday
night into Monday which could bring periods of sub-vfr
conditions across rtes.

Marine
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 615 pm wed... No changes as front is pushing thru coast
now with gusty wnw winds expected in its wake.

Prev disc... Sca's continue for all the nc waters. Strong winds
and building seas are expected tonight over the enc waters as a
cold front moves through early evening and low pressure deepens
off the mid atlantic coast. Southerly winds have increased to
20-30 with higher gusts as expected, and we could see a 2-3 hour
period of marginal gale conditions through early evening in
gusts over the southern and central waters. The flow will shift
to NW 20-30 kt with higher gusts this evening and continue
tonight as strong cold advection occurs behind the departing
cold front. Seas will build 7-10 ft this evening then subside to
5-8 late tonight due to the onshore flow. High pressure will
build over the waters thu. Winds initially will diminish to
15-20 kt, but then a secondary NW surge to 20-25 kt is expected
late in the day. Seas could briefly subside to 4-5 ft thu
afternoon but should build back to AOA 6 ft as the winds
increase late.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... SCA conditions expected to continue
into Thursday night in strong post frontal NW flow. NW winds
of 20-25 kt will produce seas 4-7 ft gradually subsiding to 3-5
ft Friday morning. High pressure builds in Friday into Saturday
as NW winds continue to diminish, becoming light and variable
Saturday as the high migrates across the region. The high slides
offshore late Saturday and Sunday with winds becoming S to se
around 10-15 kt with building seas possibly reaching SCA levels
Sunday night and mon.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 350 pm wed... Strong S winds late today will become strong
w NW behind a cold front this evening and tonight. Water levels
remain elevated across the sounds and given the forecast wind
directions, minor water level rises will be possible for the
soundside outer banks (duck to ocracoke) late today through at
least early thu. Inundation of 1-2 ft is possible, so a coastal
flood advisory has been issued through 9z for minor soundside
coastal flooding along the outer banks.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for ncz203-205.

Coastal flood advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for ncz204.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for amz136-137.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for amz131-135-150-
152-154-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Rf jme
short term... Jme
long term... Sk
aviation... Rf sk
marine... Rf jme sk
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi44 min W 8 G 16 75°F 74°F1001.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi32 min W 20 G 23 75°F 1001 hPa (-0.0)72°F
41064 33 mi24 min W 19 G 29 76°F 77°F1001.4 hPa
41159 33 mi32 min 77°F9 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi4.6 hrsSSW 17 G 2410.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1002.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi38 minW 155.00 miFog/Mist73°F66°F81%1001.2 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi94 minWSW 18 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy76°F70°F82%1000.2 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi2.6 hrsWSW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1000.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE4CalmNE3NE4E4NE3NE4N3NE4NE3NE3E3SE6NE3E4S12
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1 day agoSW8SW8SW8SW9SW7W6NW3NW3CalmNW4NW5N5N5N4N5N4N4N3N5N7NE4NE3E5E8
2 days agoS12SW9SW7S9S11S9S12SW13S13SW10N3CalmCalmSE7S3W3CalmCalmW4W5W5SW10SW7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Wed -- 03:24 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:02 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.70.40.40.71.31.92.42.72.82.62.21.610.60.50.60.91.41.92.32.42.3

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:51 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:37 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.310.70.50.30.20.30.611.31.51.61.51.310.70.40.30.30.40.711.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.