Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bogue, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:21 AM EDT (13:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:19PMMoonset 11:10AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 631 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough late. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bogue, NC
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location: 34.68, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231030
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
630 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly approach today, and move through
overnight. High pressure will build in behind the front mid week
through next weekend.

Near term through today
As of 630 am tue... Coastal showers developing south of the
crystal coast, so chc pops coastal zones in good shape for the
morning hours. Delayed higher pops for the coastal plain until
late in the day, as near term guide keeps organized convection
just to the north and west of the fa until late afternoon and
early evening.

Prev discussion... As of 330 am tue... Late today shaping up to
be more active weather wise as a seasonably strong cold front
interacts with the hot humid airmass entrenched over the area
due to upper ridging giving way to troughing aloft. Moisture
will pool ahead of the slow moving front with pw values surging
to 2.2-2.5" and ml capes as high as ~2500 j kg. Shear will be
modest but enough to support strong to severe storms capable of
producing localized damaging winds in wet microbursts and line
segments. In addition the the region will be in the right
entrance region of the jet supporting sustained lift. mbe
velocities suggest training cells, with flow aloft parallel to
convective elements, and thus a localized flood threat with the
high resolution models forecasting local amounts greater than 3"
where cells line up. The pops will be tricky today however, as
think most of the day will be quiet with convection developing
north and west of the coastal plain along front, then slowly
building southeastward late in the afternoon and ESP evening.

Thus have held off on likely categorical pops in coastal plain
until late afternoon. Coastal areas will remain dry all day,
other than a few coastal showers early this morning. Aerial
rainfall averages 1-2" over the coastal plain with almost
nothing along the coast where the models have been depicting a
minimum in precipitation amounts. Highs generally 85-90 across
the region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 330 am tue... Line of showers and storms finally progress
eastward towards the coast this evening, though instability will
quickly wane with loss of heating, and organized severe threat
will end not too long after sunset, as well as heaviest
rainfall rates. Have likely categorical pops early in the
evening, becoming sct to iso after midnight with front pushing
off the coast by around daybreak. Low temps dropping to the mid
60s interior to 70s coastal counties.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 345 am Tuesday... A cold front will be located offshore
Wednesday morning. More pleasant temps and dry high pressure
expected mid week through early next week.

Wednesday... The forecast remains a little tricky with the amount of
shower coverage across the area for the eastern third of the cwa,
though confidence has increased in a mostly dry day for interior
portions coastal plain counties of eastern nc. Coastal areas
continue to have best chance for occasional overrunning showers
with the front just offshore, as 850 mb front hangs back just a
bit. Regardless, rain totals will be rather light due to
scattered nature nature of the light showers. Much cooler than
the past week due to cloud cover and some showers, with highs in
the low mid 80s. Lows Wed night in the 60s interior to low mid
70s coast.

Thursday... The upper trough shifts farther east into the new
england states with the front far enough offshore that much of
eastern nc should be dry. Maintained just a slight chance of
showers along the immediate coast given uncertainty with where
the front resides off the coast and weak vorticity moving through
the base of the upper trough lifting away from the region.

Interior coastal plain should remain dry as high pressure begins
to ridge in from the northwest. MAX temperatures will be slightly
below climatology for late july, mid upper 80s inland with low
80s along the obx. Cooler overnight lows ranging from mid 60s
inland to low mid 70s beaches.

Friday through Monday... Weak longwave troughing present for the
eastern conus, with light northeasterly flow will mean near to
slightly below climo temps, as well as dry conditions. High
temps mainly in the 85-90 degree range with lows in the 60s
inland to low 70s coast.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am tue...VFR expected through most of today. As front
moves into region this evening expect numerous shra and tsra
late in the afternoon and especially this evening with pds of
subVFR in heavy rain. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe with strong winds and very heavy rainfall. Most of
guidance also shows some lower CIGS developing in wake of front
late tonight.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 330 am Tuesday... The cold front will be just off the coast
Wednesday with potential for lower ceilings vsbys mainly from
ewn east to offshore, though likely MVFR or better for most of
the day. Aviation conditions improve to mainlyVFR by Thursday
as NE winds and drier conditions prevail across the TAF sites.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 630 am tue... Updated to add remaining rivers to SCA suite
as strong gusty SW winds expected all marine zones this
afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion... As of 330 am tue... Sw winds are 10-20 kt
this morning with gusts to above 25 kt still eastern pamlico
sound. A lull in the gusty S to SW winds this morning, but winds
pick back up again by afternoon with approaching slow cold
front and thermal gradient increasing. Have a SCA for wind gusts
aoa 25 kt for pamlico and croatan sound, as well as all coastal
waters. Seas will increase to above 6 ft late this afternoon,
and subside late tonight as front pushes offshore and SW winds
become W and eventually nw.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 415 am Tuesday... The cold front will be along or just
east of the eastern nc coastal waters by Wednesday morning,
shifting winds N NW and diminishing speeds to 15 kt or less.

Seas will subside from 3-5 ft early Wednesday to 2-4 ft by
Wednesday night. Winds become NE 10-20 knots Thursday through
Friday night, diminishing to 5-15 kt through the weekend as high
pressure builds across the waters from the north and northwest.

May see occasional showers for the southern waters Wednesday
into Thursday with front just to the south.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196-
199-204-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening
for amz131-136-137-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz135-
150.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for amz152-154-
156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Dag
aviation... Dag tl
marine... Dag tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 20 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 11 79°F 85°F1014.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 28 mi82 min SW 8.9 G 12 82°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.4)77°F
41064 33 mi74 min WSW 14 G 19 84°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
41159 33 mi22 min 83°F5 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC1 mi25 minSW 910.00 miFair83°F75°F79%1014.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi28 minSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1013.5 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC20 mi84 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F79°F90%1014 hPa
MCAS New River, NC22 mi26 minSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F72%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:46 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.11.81.410.60.40.40.611.51.92.12.221.71.30.90.70.60.70.91.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:19 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.20.30.50.811.21.31.210.80.60.40.30.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.