Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 092020 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 320 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through late next week, with another system likely impacting the area late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 320 PM Monday . Mainly dry and mild for tonight except for a continuing very low end shower threat along the OBX. The atmospheric column will remain very moist resulting in abundant mainly mid and high level cloud cover. Low level mixing will preclude widespread dense fog like last night, but sea fog could occur adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks. Good low level WAA and mixing, will produce temps well above normal tonight with lows occurring in the evening then temps will become steady or slightly rise late. Expecting lows only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/. As of 320 PM Monday . Mostly dry weather and very warm temps are expected Tue. In fact could see some record highs if sufficient insolation can occur through the expected mostly cloudy skies. Will trend the forecast toward the warmer guidance with highs nearing the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low lvl thicknesses soaring to aoa 1380M. (see climate section below). Could see some showers creep in toward evening coastal plain and Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 PM Mon . Periods of unsettled weather expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . A strong cold front approaches the area, resulting in widespread shower activity through Wednesday morning. The best chances for rain will be along the coastal plains initially, then spread eastward through the overnight hours and Wednesday morning. There could be some thunder embedded in the showers along the immediate coast where some instability will reside, mainly Downeast Carteret through the OBX. The frontal boundary will push through the area by Wed morning, then conditions will dry during the afternoon hours from west to east. Temps will swing to the other side of climo, and only be in the upper 40s N to low/mid 50s S for highs.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s in most locations. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning.

Friday through Monday . Rain chances inc Fri through Sat as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have maintained likely pops centered on Fri night into Sat as models converging on this period being wettest. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm tracks are further inland. Drier conditions with near normal temps could arrive Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . As of 150 PM Mon . Fog and stratus have lifted and we should see VFR conditions for most of the TAF period. The NAM indicated the chance for some LLWS around 00z this evening, so a group has been added to the TAFs to reflect that possibility. Otherwise, gusty winds through the rest of the period. Some models hinted at the possibility of patchy light fog in the western TAF sites, but confidence remains low at this time.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/ . As of 4 AM Mon . Unsettled weather is expected Tue night through early Wednesday with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns second half of Wed through Thu. Increasing moisture Friday will lead to the development of rain with the potential for sub VFR ceilings and vsbys.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/ . As of 320 PM Monday . Continue the SCA's. Southerly flow 15-20 kt will continue through Tue, except for the outer central waters where the flow will be 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas are very high late today, 8-12 ft, but will subside slightly overnight to 6 to 9 ft and to 5 to 8 ft Tue.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/ . As of 245 AM Mon . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of the week which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will shift N 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind cold front Wed into Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at least Sat as yet another storm system moves through the waters Fri night and Sat.

CLIMATE. Record High temps for 12/10 Tuesday

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 79/2007 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/2007 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 78/2007 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 79/2007 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME SHORT TERM . JME LONG TERM . TL/BM AVIATION . TL/ML MARINE . JME/TL/BM CLIMATE . MHX

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	7 mi	50 min	S 4.1 G 5.1	61°F	55°F		1017.7 hPa (-1.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	15 mi	50 min	W 4.1 G 5.1	62°F			1017.8 hPa (-1.4)	62°F
41064	34 mi	42 min	NNW 3.9 G 9.7	63°F	64°F		1017.4 hPa
41159	34 mi	20 min			64°F	8 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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E7 G12

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SE15 G19

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N16 G23

N9 G17

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N7 G11

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N5 G8

NW3 G6

W1 G5

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N6 G10

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N8 G11

NE8 G16

NE12 G20

NE10 G20

NE13 G19

N12 G21

N12 G19

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	8 mi	1.9 hrs	Var 3	10.00 mi	Fair	64°F	60°F	87%	1017.9 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	12 mi	56 min	SSW 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	72°F	62°F	71%	1016.9 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC	13 mi	1.9 hrs	WSW 4	9.00 mi	Fair	0°F	0°F	%	1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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E9 G15

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SE11 G17

SE10 G20

SE10 G18

SE12 G22

SE13 G20

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S12 G18

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NE14 G20

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N3

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N9

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NE12

NE13 G22

NE9 G21

N14 G20

NE14 G19

N18 G25

N16 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Morehead City, North Carolina (2)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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