Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Knoll Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 13, 2020 10:02 PM EDT (02:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 2:35PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 723 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers and tstms likely, mainly this evening.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the morning, then tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Knoll Shores, NC
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location: 34.69, -76.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 132326 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 726 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure will remain over the Carolinas through the weekend. A weak cold front will stall over Eastern NC early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 720 PM Thurs . Scattered convection continues across the area, as well as offshore as a weak area of low pressure lingers right along the Crystal Coast. After this evening, expect the majority of storms to remain along the coast or offshore, and have decreased PoPs inland. Could still see some areas of localized flooding if some training of storms occur given high PWATs approaching 2.5". Temperatures overnight will remain in the low to mid 70s inland, and the upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM Thursday . Decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms again on Friday, although most high-res guidance doesn't show quite the coverage of today. Precipitable water values will still be well above normal, up to 2.5 inches, during the afternoon, so heavy downpours are possible. PoPs will still be in the likely range with highs mainly in the mid 80s with fairly widespread cloud cover as the surface low moves slowly north of the area into southern Virginia.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 245 PM Thu . Wet weather along with seasonable temperatures are expected through the period, as a closed low currently over the Mid-West moves east and evolves into an open wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and stall while a series of weak lows move along it, enhancing rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible over this period with the potential for localized flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values AOA 2" and sufficient instability. While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain, will continue likely PoPs through the weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if current model trends continue.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Tomorrow Evening/ . As of 720 PM Thurs . A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are present this evening, and expect this to continue through early tonight with scattered thunderstorms and general cloudiness continuing. Then late tonight, a low stratus deck is expected to form and move south over the coastal plain and eventually to the US 17 corridor potentially impacting all TAF sites. Ceilings should lower to around 1000 ft initially, but then could reach as low as 300 ft into the early morning hours, and some patchy fog will also be possible. Then after mid morning, VFR conditions are expected to return, although there will be chances for thunderstorms once again.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/ . As of 2 PM Thu . Sub-VFR conditions will be more frequent through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or stratus each morning.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 4 PM Thursday . Low pressure over inland eastern NC at late afternoon will very slow move north into southern Virginia tonight and Friday. Winds at late afternoon with winds E/SE over the northern waters and S/SSW over the southern waters. Winds are 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts at times over the central and southern waters. A few gusts, especially in convection, may reach or exceed 25 knots, but not frequent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Seas of 2-4 feet this evening, will build to 3-5 feet tonight and Friday.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/ . As of 245 PM Thu . Good boating conditions will continue through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt Fri night, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt. A wavy cold front will move into the waters and stall over the weekend, making wind directions challenging. The front is currently forecast to move into the northern waters Sat, though some models keep it further north closer to the NC/VA border. Winds may shift to the NE/E across the northern waters but expected to remain SW across the central and southern waters. Increased winds a bit Friday night and Sat from previous forecast with some guidance showing stronger winds, 15-20 kt, developing ahead of the approaching front. Flow becomes pred S/SW 10-15 kt Sat night through Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through Sat then building to 3-5 ft late Sunday and Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SGK SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . CQD/SGK MARINE . CTC/CQD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 7 mi75 min 81°F 85°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 15 mi63 min SW 9.9 G 13 81°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
41064 34 mi55 min WSW 16 G 21 82°F 1014.6 hPa
41159 34 mi37 min 81°F4 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC8 mi65 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast80°F77°F90%1014.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC12 mi69 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F77°F97%1014.1 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC13 mi66 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F85%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S6SE5S7SE9SE7S8S4S6CalmE5N3NE5SW6SW17S17
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1 day agoS6S8S9S9SW10SW7SW4CalmNE4CalmSE5SE7SE6SE6S11S13S10S14S8S11S14S11S6S10
2 days agoSW9S9SW9SW10SW6SW6SW3SW3S5S5S7S8S9S9S9S10S10SW11SW8SW9S10S5S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina
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Coral Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.711.21.41.41.31.10.90.70.50.40.50.711.41.61.71.71.51.310.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Morehead City, North Carolina (2)
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Morehead City
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.12.52.72.72.41.91.410.80.91.21.82.42.93.33.43.22.82.31.71.20.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.