Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Beach, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 101700 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 100 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Broad and weak troughing will develop inland mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /This Afternoon/. As of 1 PM Mon . Convection has begun to develop on an active sea breeze boundary, so no changes to high chc scatterd pops for mainly inland zones this afternoon. Convection may develop in more widespread clusters later, but uncertainty in where so will not raise to likelies attm.

Prev discussion . As of 10 AM Mon . No big changes with AM update. Still expecting a fairly active sea breeze to develop this afternoon, am some places may need to be upgraded with likely pops, but coverage extent still remains uncertain and will remain capped at 40% for now.

Prev discussion . As of 715 AM Monday . A few isolated showers near the Outer Banks are the only noteworthy features on radar this morning, and mainly sunny skies have emerged for most with the sunrise. No significant changes made with the sunrise forecast.

Previous Discussion . Weak zonal flow aloft with Bermuda high pressure building in from the south and east and subtle surface troughing inland. Overall, expect a typically summer day, not unlike Sunday in terms of temps or storm coverage. Sunny skies through the morning for most will allow temps to climb to near 90 by early afternoon away from the beaches. Scattered storms will develop along the sea breeze initially by mid-afternoon, the push inland with the sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions by late afternoon, with coverage decreasing with the loss of daytime heating in the evening. Storm motion remains very slow, around 10 kt or less, so localized flooding issues are possible, but most storms will struggle to maintain updrafts long enough in the low shear environment to mount much of a prolonged heavy rain of severe weather threat.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/. As of 4 AM Monday . Mainly dry conditions prevail overnight with weak upper level subsidence continuing. Light S to SW flow along the coast will likely decouple inland. If skies remain clear for prolonged periods, some more sheltered areas could radiate enough for some patchy light fog to form. Temp continue to be around normal, with lows near normal, in the lower 70s away from the beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 415 AM Monday . Seasonable weather on tap through the long term period, with only minor day to day variability owing to subtle changes in the upper level pattern and strength of low level WAA.

A weakness in the upper ridging across across the Southeast develops mid to late week with more pronounced shortwave energy pushing across the Ohio River Valley and mid-Atlantic states this weekend. In the lower levels, continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze. Weak surface troughing gradually strengthens inland through the week allow for greater storm coverage each day, and would be expected to initiate convection earlier in the day with less capping in place. While ample moisture and instability will be present, shear will be meager with 0-6 km bulk shear generally around 10 kt or less limiting the severe threat. Still, cannot rule out stronger storms producing isolated wind damage and heavy rainfall producing localized flooding. Temps will generally continue to be near normal, with convection being the primary culprit for deviations from normal.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Tue/ . As of 1 PM Mon . VFR prevails for all terminals today, though scattered storms this afternoon bring the potential for temporary flight restrictions for any given location. Low level moisture advection will inch up stronger today, and light, patchy fog and low stratus is possible again tonight, especially for the further inland locations. Have opted to prevail MVFR only at PGV late tonight for the time being, but expansion of restrictions may be necessary in future updates.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 4 AM Monday . Typical summertime pattern through the period with light winds and diurnally enhanced convection each day. Pred VFR conditions expected outside of showers and thunderstorms and patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 4 AM Monday . Very similar to the past several days with favorable boating conditions on tap today and tonight. Light WSW winds this morning becoming S to SW around 10-15 kt in the afternoon under the influence of differential heating. Winds remain SW tonight and gradually wane. Seas persist near 2 ft with only minor incoming medium period swell.

With similar environmental conditions as yesterday, isolated showers/storms along the coast could produce waterspouts.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 430 AM Monday . Good boating conditions continue through much of the long term. Expect S to SW winds around 10 kt into mid week, with gusts to around 15 kt each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. The Bermuda high begins to strengthen offshore mid to late week with southerly winds increasing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt late Wednesday through the end of the week. Seas persist around 2 ft through Tuesday, then build to 2-3 ft mid to late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . SK AVIATION . SK/TL MARINE . SK/CB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	11 mi	53 min	SW 2.9 G 7	84°F	85°F		1018.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	20 mi	71 min	SSW 9.9 G 13	85°F			1018.2 hPa (-0.8)
41064	34 mi	63 min	SW 9.7 G 12	83°F			1018.4 hPa
41159	34 mi	45 min			84°F	1 ft

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	11 mi	17 min	SE 3	10.00 mi	Light Rain	79°F	77°F	94%	1017.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	12 mi	73 min	SW 9	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	84°F	77°F	80%	1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNJM

Wind History from NJM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Coral Bay, Atlantic Beach, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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