Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:42 AM EST (12:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 5:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 650 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Patchy fog early this morning. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough. Showers likely, then showers.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, NC
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location: 34.7, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 101201 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will move through tonight and early Wednesday bringing wet and unsettled conditions with it. High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday, with another system likely impacting the area Friday perhaps into early Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 700 AM Tuesday . Adjusted T/Td hourly trends downwards post-frontal passage as initial cooling trend was too slow. Current forecast is on track with no further changes planned.

Prev disc . Broad and deep moist southwesterly flow continues over the southeastern U.S. this morning ahead of a shortwave trough digging into central Texas as seen on WV imagery. At the surface south/southwesterly flow is in place ahead of a cold front current just west of the Appalachians, while weak high pressure attempts to ridge in from the east.

Early this morning a threat of sea fog continues with locally lower visibilities impacting portions of the Outer Banks; the airport in Hatteras has been sitting between 4-5 miles most of the night. Water temps are still in the mid 50s in the Pamlico Sound so this threat should be on and off through the day.

The other forecast challenge today is temps with record breaking warmth possible today as forecast 1000-850 mb thicknesses reach ~1390 meters, suggesting a few 80s are possible mainly across southern zones and widespread 70s elsewhere. This is dependent on better insolation due to cloud breaks. For record information see the climate section below. A few coastal showers are expected to linger off OBX throughout the day, perhaps increasing in coverage late as convergence increases ahead of the approaching front.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/. As of 255 AM Tuesday . Weather quickly deteriorates tonight as cold anafront moves through the region overnight into Wednesday morning. HREF continues to hint at a weak instability axis persisting along the coast and have a mention of thunder from Downeast Carteret along the OBX. Ensemble guidance supports moving PoPs to categorical for the overnight period with precipitation amounts generally around a quarter of an inch or so. A few hi-res models suggest some enhanced frontogenetic forcing immediately along the coast as cooler air intrudes could lead to enhanced rain totals - didn't go quite as aggressive with QPF as guidance but do show locally higher amounts for Carteret and areas northeast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 4 AM Tue . Periods of unsettled weather expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected.

Wednesday . A strong cold front will have passed through the area by sunrise Wed. The front will be an anafront, with much of the precip along and behind it, so some lingering rain expected Wed morning, especially eastern areas. Further west, rapid drying and cooling is expected as temps will not budge much for highs, as CAA will be ongoing all day. Expect blustery conditions and temps in the 40s all day for the region.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air mass. Lows will be near or below freezing for all but the coastal areas, where brisk NNE winds will keep temps in the 30s and low 40s. Despite the widespread sunshine, highs Thu only in the 40s area wide.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Fri as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur low pressure development over the deep south. This low will ride up the coast rapidly, with rain becoming likely through the day Fri, peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Bumped pops up to categorical this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of the low, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm track is further inland. Latest 10/00Z ECM indicates aoa 500 J/KG of sfc based capes advecting into the area with plentiful shear.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops. Another system may quickly be moving in, but this feature difficult to pinpoint this far out in time, so will leave Monday dry attm.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . As of 700 AM Tue . High confidence in VFR conditions during the day, transitioning to MVFR and periods of IFR overnight on the heels of a frontal passage. Mid and high level clouds will linger for most of the day with gusty SW winds up to 20 knots at times. Front begins crossing the region after 00z with precipitation and deteriorating ceilings. Favored predominantly MVFR ceilings as the front passes but periods of IFR are possible especially immediately behind the front.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/ . As of 4 AM Tue . Unsettled weather is expected to continue very early Wednesday with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns quickly by late morning early afternoon as high builds in. Another system moves in by Friday with the development of rain with more sub VFR conditions expected through Friday night to perhaps early Saturday.

MARINE. Short Term /Tuesday/ . As of 305 AM Tuesday . South/southwesterly flow continues over the waters at around 10-15 knots with seas ranging from 5-9 feet off the coast. SCA continues the entire period with persistent SW flow continuing ahead of an approaching cold front, eventually veering W and NW late as the front passes over the waters. Seas will slowly subside to 5-6 feet through the day before building back late with a northerly surge behind the front.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/ . As of 4 AM Tue . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of the week and into the weekend which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will shift N 20-30 kt behind cold front Wed into Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at least Sat as yet another storm system moves through the waters Fri night and Sat.

CLIMATE. Record High temps for 12/10 Tuesday

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 79/2007 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/2007 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 78/2007 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 79/2007 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . TL/MS MARINE . TL/MS CLIMATE . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 39 mi60 min SW 5.1 G 8 62°F 56°F1017.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi60 min SW 12 G 15 67°F 56°F1016.8 hPa
41159 41 mi42 min 65°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi94 min SW 9.7 G 14 60°F 57°F1017.4 hPa
41064 42 mi94 min WSW 14 G 19 70°F 65°F1017.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 42 mi32 min 57°F4 ft
WLON7 44 mi60 min 66°F 53°F1017.4 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 47 mi42 min SW 7 G 8.9 64°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi94 min W 14 G 19 67°F 65°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC2 mi46 minSW 810.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1017.3 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC15 mi46 minSSW 810.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1017.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi1.8 hrsWSW 53.00 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmW6S3S5--S7S6S7S5S6S8SW7SW8SW7SW8S6S8SW6SW7SW10
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1 day agoN7N9NE9N8N6N10N8N8NW6NW4N7N11NE9N5N5CalmCalmNW3NW6NW6N4N3CalmCalm
2 days agoN6NE10NE13NE15N12
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:22 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.51.11.92.73.23.43.22.61.91.10.50.20.20.61.21.92.52.82.72.21.60.80.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:18 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:55 AM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:20 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:12 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.40.91.522.42.52.31.91.40.80.40.10.20.511.51.92.121.61.10.60.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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