Jacksonville, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonville, NC


December 7, 2023 9:02 PM EST (02:02 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM   Sunset 4:59PM   Moonrise  1:40AM   Moonset 1:42PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 701 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. Showers.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, except 7 to 10 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy in the afternoon, then diminishing to a moderate chop.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 701 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. High pressure over the area will slide offshore tonight and Friday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday with a potential for gale force southerly winds and dangerous seas. High pressure will build back into the area next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 080001 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure builds into the area today with a warming trend to follow into the weekend. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday bringing strong southerly winds and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/
As of 7 PM Thu...Have edged temps down a couple degrees for overnight mins, as afternoon TD's bottomed out in the 20s. Most areas away from the immediate coast should see calm to light winds, allowing for the ideal radiational cooling.

Prev disc
As of 145 PM Thursday
Upper ridging currently centered over the Mississippi River Valley will push eastward tonight with a subtle shortwave sliding sewd across the region.
Meanwhile, sfc high pressure centered over the Southeast will slide off the coast tonight with lee troughing developing across the western piedmont. The shortwave will have very little influence of sensible weather across ENC other than to tighten the pressure gradients some, which will mostly be felt along the coast as light to moderate sw winds. Clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling across inland areas and expect temps to fall fairly quickly after sunset this evening. Low tonight expected in the low to mid 30s inland to low to mid 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM Thursday...The upper ridge axis becomes centered across the Eastern seaboard Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. A dry airmass remains across the region although will see high clouds passing overhead that will bring filtered sunshine throughout most of the day. light SW winds allow for warming temps and expect highs near seasonable norms in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night

2) Above normal temperatures over the weekend

3) Below normal temperatures next week

FORECAST DETAILS

A potent shortwave will move ashore along the Pacific NW today, dive southeast into the Southern Plains by late Saturday, then lift northeast across the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday into Monday. Medium range ensemble guidance have backed off a bit on the strength of the wave as it moves through the Eastern US, but it still appears likely that it will take on a negative tilt as it moves through, the strength of which is still noteworthy. At the surface, high pressure will shift offshore on Friday, with a stout return/southerly flow developing over the weekend. A cold front will then march east across the Carolinas Sunday night.

What's most impressive with this system is the kinematics. A strong 50-60kt southerly LLJ is forecast to develop on the warm side of the system, with some guidance forecasting an impressive 60-70kt within the jet. With widespread clouds and showers, heating will be strongly WAA-driven, and mixing should be on the shallow side. Even so, there should be enough mixing into the lower reaches of the LLJ, allowing a fairly widespread area of 30-40 mph winds at times prior to the passage of the cold front, especially Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Where mixing and the pressure gradient are maximized, gusts of 45+ mph will be possible. Probabilistic guidance gives a 50-60% chance of those higher gusts being reached (highest probs along the coast), and a Wind Advisory may be needed for a portion of the area.

The strong kinematics with this system will also support anomalously strong moisture transport into the region ahead of the front, with PWATs peaking as high as 1.25-1.50". The strong moisture transport will be important for both the rainfall potential and any severe weather potential. Rainfall-wise, guidance differs on where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be, but there's a pretty good signal for 1- 2" of rain given the strong lift overlapping with anomalous moisture. It's been fairly dry over the past week across Eastern NC, and we should be able to handle these rainfall amounts. However, where rainfall rates are the highest, typically flood-prone and urban areas could see some minor hydro issues.

Regarding the convective potential, the strengthening southerly flow will help advect 60s dewpoints into the area, but with warmer temps aloft and weak lapse rates, instability may only top out in the 250- 500 J/kg range. Strong deep layer shear will be present, setting up a conditional high shear/low CAPE severe weather risk. Given the strength of forcing, it's possible that a narrow band, or two, of thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing front, capable of pockets of enhanced wind potential. Keep in mind, with the strong winds aloft, even weak convection could help mix down some stronger gusts at the surface. As is often the case this time of year, the main limiting factor will be weak instability. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this potential.

Once the front clears the area, a drier and colder airmass is forecast to settle into the region next week. Temperatures will drop back below normal (similar to the past couple of days).

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain in control through the short term with VFR SKC. SW winds only around 5 kt expected through the taf pd.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Conditions will then begin to trend more impactful for aviation over the weekend as a strong cold front moves through. Ahead of the front, sub-VFR CIGs may develop as early as Saturday, becoming increasingly likely on Sunday. Widespread SHRA and scattered TSRA are expected along the front, with IFR conditions possible. Gusty southerly winds will develop Saturday night and last through Sunday evening, before becoming northerly Sunday night. Southerly gusts of 25-35kt are likely during this time, peaking Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...High pressure centered across the Southeast will push off the coast tonight with a trough developing across the western piedmont. Current obs showing W to NW winds around 5-10 kt with seas around 3-5 ft northern and central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters. Winds will back to WSW late today as the sfc high slides offshore. Will see some tightening of the pressure gradients tonight as a weak midlevel shortwave moves across the area with WSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt. Wly winds diminish to around 10-15 kt Friday with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft across most waters by the afternoon though up to 4 ft may continue across the outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday night into Monday

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to light winds (5-10kt) and good boating conditions. Seas will be 2-3 ft.
Conditions will begin to deteriorate Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to a strengthening southerly wind and building seas. The worst boating conditions are expected later Sunday into Sunday night as the cold front moves east across the area. The front will be accompanied by a period of gale- force winds over the coastal waters, including the Pamlico Sound, and strong SCA-level winds over the remaining inland rivers and sounds. Over the warmest coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras, model guidance and pattern recognition suggests occasional gusts to storm-force will be possible (40-60% chance). Elsewhere, a solid period of 25-35kt southerly winds can be expected as the front moves through. Seas will respond to the strong southerly flow, and will build to 7-13 ft offshore (5-8 ft close to shore). Inland rivers and sounds will be very choppy to rough. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front, and will lead to areas of enhanced wind gusts. Behind the front, gusty northwesterly winds will lay down to 15-25kt, and seas will eventually follow suite.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 39 mi45 min W 8.9G14 52°F 55°F30.15
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi45 min SW 8.9G9.9 49°F 60°F30.17
41159 41 mi37 min 71°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi115 min WSW 14G18 53°F 60°F30.1935°F
41064 42 mi55 min WSW 18G23 56°F 72°F30.1845°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 42 mi37 min 60°F2 ft
MBNN7 43 mi63 min WSW 2.9G6 45°F 30.1738°F
WLON7 44 mi45 min 45°F 56°F30.17
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 47 mi63 min WSW 11G14 52°F 30.18
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi55 min WSW 16G21 55°F 68°F30.1842°F
MBIN7 49 mi63 min WSW 2.9G4.1 46°F 30.1738°F

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Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNCA NEW RIVER MCAS /H/ /MCCUTCHEON FLD/,NC 2 sm66 minWSW 0410 smClear43°F28°F57%30.17
KOAJ ALBERT J ELLIS,NC 14 sm66 minSSW 0610 smClear39°F30°F70%30.18
KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC 20 sm65 minW 0810 smClear63°F30°F29%30.18

Wind History from NCA
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for New River Inlet, North Carolina
   
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New River Inlet
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Thu -- 01:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:53 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:02 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
2.3
2
am
2.6
3
am
2.7
4
am
2.6
5
am
2.2
6
am
1.7
7
am
1.1
8
am
0.7
9
am
0.6
10
am
0.7
11
am
1
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
2
2
pm
2.4
3
pm
2.5
4
pm
2.4
5
pm
2
6
pm
1.5
7
pm
1
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
0.3
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.8



Tide / Current for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
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Thu -- 01:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:50 AM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:59 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bogue Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
1.7
2
am
2
3
am
2
4
am
1.9
5
am
1.6
6
am
1.3
7
am
0.9
8
am
0.6
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.8
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
1.5
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
1.9
4
pm
1.8
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0.3
10
pm
0.4
11
pm
0.6




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Morehead City, NC,



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