Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lebec, CA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:12PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 9:25 AM PST (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:04PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 909 Am Pst Tue Jan 19 2021
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday morning...
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 35 to 45 kt with local gusts to 50 kt becoming 40 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, E winds 25 to 30 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Tonight..Eastern portion, ne winds 35 to 45 kt with local gusts to 50 kt becoming 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Western portion, ne winds 20 to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Wed..Eastern portion, ne winds 25 to 35 kt. Western portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt by the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds. SE swell 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ600 909 Am Pst Tue Jan 19 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 8 am pst, a 1042 mb high was located over idaho. A 1000 mb low was just southwest of the channel islands. A large nw swell will keep hazardous seas in the outer waters through today. Strong ne gales will affect the waters from near ventura to santa Monica and out past the channel islands through Wednesday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lebec, CA
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location: 34.73, -118.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 191620 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 820 AM PST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. 19/451 AM.

Very strong northeast winds will affect the area through Wednesday morning, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. It will remain dry except for isolated showers over the eastern San Gabriels. There will be a widespread chance of light rain Friday through the weekend with significant cooling.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU). 19/819 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area with a mix of high and low clouds. As for winds, Santa Ana winds are definitely starting to pick up.

Forecast-wise, the immediate short term looks in good shape. The rather surprising amount of marine layer stratus this morning did delay the surfacing of the winds along the coastal plain. However, that marine influence is mixing out and the winds are starting to surface. So, overall, current wind forecast looks good. LAX-DAG gradient is strengthening this morning and initial batch of 12Z model data indicates increasing upper level wind support. Therefore, high confidence in the strong Santa Ana wind forecast. Already have some gusts in excess of 70 mph in the mountains and valleys this morning (Gust 86 MPH at Magic Mountain Truck Trail). So, current slate of HIGH WIND WARNINGs and WIND ADVISORIES look to handle the situation very well today (check out LAXNPWLOX for the latest). So, do not anticipate any changes to these products.

Other concern today will be the potential for some precipitation today. Still looks like some potential for isolated light showers over the San Gabriel Mountains. Additionally, there is the potential for some showers (and maybe an isolated thunderstorm over the far southern/southwestern coastal waters). Will continue with current slight chance POPs for these areas with the forecast this morning.

Overall, the forecast is in good shape for today. So, no significant updates are anticipated at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

After a difficult start, today's major wind event is starting up.

There are two upper lows embedded in a very large pos tilt trof that covers CA, NV, AZ, and UT. One upper low is to the SSE of LA and is helping to enhance the low level offshore flow which currently at 4 mb and heading to 6 mb. The second upper low is just to the north of Las Vegas and is streaking towards the WSW. This second low is bringing in a grip of upper level winds and cold air advection. Adding up the offshore flow, the upper support and the cold air advection results in a major wind event. Most mtn areas will see gusts between 70 and 80 mph while many cst/vly locations will see 60 to 70 mph gusts.

So it is a little surprising that there is a deep marine layer stratus covering much of the coasts and vlys South of Pt Conception. Last evening, the upper low to the SW stirred up a fairly strong eddy and also added a little cyclonic turning over the area. This was enough to spin up a large marine layer cloud deck One interesting fact about the marine layer and winds. The atmosphere is decoupled right at the top of clouds due to the large difference in density between the two air masses. The decoupled atmosphere allows the strong offshore winds to ride over the marine layer and not through it. This allows the low clouds to last much longer than expected (It also will give airplanes a decent jolt when the ascend into the winds) Shortly after sunrise the winds will move into the marine layer and mix out the clouds. At that time the coastal areas well see a large increase in winds.

The upper low will move to Pt Conception this afternoon and the south flow into the San Gabriel mtns will create a slight chc of a shower. Due to all of the cold air advection the snow levels will be near 3500 ft and an inch of snow is possible above 5000 feet.

The upper low is forecast to generate a sizable mid level cloud deck later this morning bring mostly cloudy skies to SBA/VTA/LA counties. Currently the low is not producing many clouds and would not be surprised if the day turned out a little sunnier than fcst.

Max temps will fall everywhere today due to the massive cold air advection. Even the coasts and vlys which usually warm with offshore flow will cool 5 to 10 degrees while the interior cools 10 to 15 degrees. Max temps today across the csts/vlys will be near 70.

On Wednesday the upper low will be well south of the area. Skies will be partly cloudy. There will still be a good amount of offshore flow but not much upper level or thermal support so there should only be advisory level gusts across VTA/LA counties. With no cold air advection and slightly higher hgts max temps will bump up 4 to 8 degrees.

A little pop up ridge will make Thursday's weather the most benign of the next 7. The offshore flow will weaken but will not end. The higher hgts will lead to some warming across the interior but the earlier arriving sea breeze and much reduced compression heating will cool the csts and vlys 4 to 8 degrees.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 19/1213 AM.

Both the EC and GFS agree that there will be a dramatic pattern change for the area starting on Friday as a series of short waves moves through the state. The GFS and EC do not agree on the exact timing and intensity of the short waves so while there is good deal of confidence in the over all character of the xtnd period that is very little confidence in each 6 or 12 hour block of the forecast.

Thursday's ridge will break down and move to the east early Friday morning and an upper low over Del Norte County will begin to move to the south bring strong W to E flow over Srn CA. Skies will be mostly cloudy and a slight chc of rain across SLO county and the mtns of all of four counties. The lowering hgts and increased cloudiness will drop max temps 4 to 8 degrees and most cst/vly locations will have highs in the mid 60s or 3 to 5 degrees blo normal.

The upper low should pass overhead Friday night and will will bring a chc of rain and low elevation mtn snow to most of the area.

A little more uncertainty for the Saturday forecast depending on how fast the upper low moves out of the area. There is enough of a precipitation spread in the ensembles members to warrant a slight chc or chc of showers for the most of the area. There will probably be some clearing and drying sometime in the afternoon. This is pretty cold system and snow levels will likely be around 4000 ft. Hgts will fall to about 542 dam and this along with clouds and showers will only allow temps across the coasts and vlys to rise into the lower 60s.

Right now both the EC and GFS and their respective ensemble members keep Sunday partly cloudy and dry with a small ridge over the state. The extra sunshine and higher hgts will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the entire area. Despite the warming max temps will remain 4 to 8 degrees blo normal. Recent mdl runs had clouds and rain forecast for Sunday so confidence is not too high in this forecast.

Another fast moving trof is forecast to move NW to SW down through the state and bring clouds and chc of rain to the area on Monday. Some ensemble solutions bring a decent amount of rain along with this system.

Preliminary QPF amounts for the 4 day period range from 0.10 to 0.50 inches across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties with 0.50 to 1.00 inch possible across LA county (with highest amounts over the foothills).

AVIATION. 19/1248Z.

At 1211Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3400 feet with a temperature of 13 C.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. For KLAX, KSMO, KLGB, and KSBA, low clouds may dissipate +/- an hour of forecast, depending on when the NE winds ramp up. Low confidence in wind forecast with very strong NE to E winds possible at all terminals.

There will be areas of turbc and LLWS with a 20 percent chc of SVR turbc anywhere but esp near and over hier trrn.

KLAX . Low confidence in TAF. Low clouds may dissipate between 14Z-16Z. There is a 40% chance of a 12kt east wind component through 04Z and a slight chance of an 18 kt east wind component 21Z-04Z. LGT ocnl MDT turbc on over the field and to the east aft 18Z.

KBUR . Low confidence in TAF. Low clouds may dissipate between 13Z-15Z. Gusts to 35 kt are possible aft 21Z. Lgt ocnl mdt turbc and LLWS likely aft 16Z.

MARINE. 19/205 AM.

High confidence that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level hazardous seas over 10 feet will continue through this afternoon across the waters along the Central Coast southward to San Nicolas Island. North winds will increase through the morning, with moderate confidence in forecast of Gales over the far northern portion this morning. Otherwise, NE winds at SCA levels are expected over the waters north of Point Conception through Wednesday morning. Gusty NW winds at SCA levels are then possible over these waters Thursday night through Saturday.

Offshore winds are also expected nearshore north of Point Sal, at SCA levels through tonight, with seas diminishing below 10 feet this evening. There will be another chance of SCA NW winds Thursday night into Friday.

High confidence in strong northeast winds and choppy short-period seas across all the inner waters inside the Southern California Bight and out to all the Channel Islands, San Nicolas Island, and Catalina Island late tonight through Wednesday morning. The strongest winds are expected this morning through afternoon. A Gale Warning is in effect through Wednesday morning with winds likely peaking between 30 and 45 kt with local gusts as high as 50 kt possible. Choppy wind-generated waves of 5 to 8 feet are also expected. East facing harbors, such as Avalon Harbor and other east facing harbors across the Channel Islands will be affected with strong winds and steep seas. These conditions are hazardous to boaters, and there could be damage to boats that are not anchored properly. Mariners should avoid these areas, or remain in safe harbor until conditions improve.

BEACHES. 19/158 AM.

A long period west to northwest swell continue to affect the coastal waters through tonight, resulting in high surf and dangerous rip currents on all west and northwest facing beaches. Surf will peak through this morning, then slowly subside through this evening. There is a chance that surf will subside more slowly than expected, and Surf Advisories may need to be extended past tonight.

For the Central Coast, large surf of 8 to 12 feet with local sets to 16 feet are likely today along favored northwest-facing beaches, then subside slowly through this evening. There is a chance that surf may remain above 10 feet on Wednesday.

For the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet will be likely along exposed west-facing beaches, with some higher sets to 9 feet for the Ventura County beaches. The west-facing beaches of the Santa Barbara County South Coast will likely see surf of 4 to 7 feet. The surf will subside below 7 feet in all areas Tuesday evening.

FIRE WEATHER. 19/453 AM.

A very strong and damaging northeast to east wind event is expected to impact a large portion of Southwest California today through Wednesday morning. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for many portions of Southwest California through Wednesday morning. The strongest and most widespread winds are expected to be through tonight when widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be likely in the mountains, foothills, and some valley locations in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Isolated gusts as high as 90 mph will be possible in the mountains of Los Angeles county. Even coastal areas (including portions of the LA Basin) will likely see locally damaging wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph. Portions of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties (especially the mountains,Central Coast, and Santa Ynez Valley) could see strong northeast to east winds Tuesday into Tuesday night, with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph at lower elevations and 50 to 70 mph at higher elevations. Humidity levels through today are expected to range between 12 and 25 percent across coastal and valley areas, and 15 to 30 percent across the mountains, with humidity levels gradually rising tonight.While humidity levels will be above 15 percent for some areas, the strength of this wind event and the current state of the very dry fuels warranted this Red Flag Warning issuance. Significant wind impacts will be likely with this event, including the threat of widespread downed trees and powerlines, as well as power outages. Winds are then expected to diminish Thursday through next weekend, with a chance of precipitation Friday and Saturday, and additional precipitation chances next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 34-35-39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 34>38-59. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 4 AM PST Wednesday for zones 40-41-44>46-51>54-88-547-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zone 87. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zones 234>236-251-252. (See LAXRFWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 10 AM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Light to moderate precipitation is possible Friday through the weekend.



PUBLIC . Rorke/Thompson AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart BEACHES . Stewart FIRE . Gomberg SYNOPSIS . Stewart

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 52 mi56 min NNE 8.9 G 11 56°F 59°F1008.1 hPa
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 52 mi56 min NNW 5.1 G 8 56°F 1004.6 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sandberg, CA4 mi33 minE 38 G 5010.00 miOvercast and Windy40°F8°F27%1006.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSDB

Wind History from SDB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:14 AM PST     4.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM PST     2.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:26 PM PST     3.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:00 PM PST     1.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.94.143.73.32.92.52.42.42.62.93.13.33.33.12.72.31.81.51.41.51.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:26 AM PST     4.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:30 AM PST     2.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:06 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:38 PM PST     3.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:06 PM PST     1.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.94.14.13.93.532.72.52.52.62.93.23.43.43.22.92.41.91.61.41.51.92.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.