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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 207 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Eastern portion, W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Eastern portion, W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Eastern portion, W 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Local gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 207 Pm Pst Thu Nov 30 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 21z or 1 pm pst, a 1029 mb high was 1000 nm west of point conception, and a 1011 mb low was over the ventura county. Gusty northwesterly winds will increase across all the coastal waters today, likely reaching gale force from pt. Sal south to san nicolas island.

FXUS66 KLOX 302327 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 327 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
30/116 PM.

Cool and breezy conditions are expected through at least Saturday with the strongest winds in the mountains. Some light rain is possible in and around the Grapevine later tonight into early Friday. A warming trend will start Sunday with some breezy Santa Ana winds possible early next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...30/218 PM.

The main weather impact over the next couple days will be the wind, though it won't be windy everywhere. The system that just passed through the area has left behind a fairly robust northerly flow that will provide ample support for advisory level winds across much of the mountains and some of the valleys and coastal areas. No high wind warnings at this time, though the typical hot spots like Whitaker Peak, Magic Mtn Truck Trail, and possibly in the higher hills above Montecito in southern Santa Barbara County.
Winds are also expected to filter down into the valleys south of Pt Conception, including the Santa Clarita Valley and Ojai/Lake Casitas areas where wind advisories were added for tonight into early Friday. Models also show some breezy, but mainly sub- advisory level north winds reaching the LA Coastal areas from Malibu through West LA.

This pattern expected to repeat itself Friday night into Saturday, though models indicate slightly less wind across coast and valley areas of LA and Ventura Counties as there's slightly less upper support to drive the winds towards the surface.

The northerly flow tonight will be accompanied by a little surge of additional moisture from the northwest that will translate into increasing light precip chances for the far northern mountain areas from the around the Grapevine west through extreme southeast SLO County. Amounts expected to be under a quarter inch and snow levels will be well above the Grapevine elevation so minimal impacts expected other than some damp roads through early Friday.

Winds expected to start settling down Saturday morning with mostly light winds continuing into Sunday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side through Saturday, mostly in the 60s. Then warming slightly Sunday as gradients shift to the northeast and strong high pressure start to build in from the west.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...30/216 PM.

High pressure aloft basically remains in place through mid week before shifting east ahead of next storm that moves into the Pac NW. Ensemble pressure gradients from the NAEFS indicate increasing offshore flow to the north and east through about Tuesday, but more so from the north than east so this won't be a true Santa Ana event. Looking at a collective of all the major long term ensemble systems, most of the solutions favor a slight bump in winds Monday and Tuesday, but mostly at higher elevations and mostly below advisory levels. This pairs up well with the deterministic solutions which show very little upper support with this event. So overall looking at several degrees of warming with highs in the 70s and 80s at most coast/valley areas away from the beaches. Probably little if any marine layer given the offshore gradients, though some mid and high clouds possible Monday from a system passing well to the north.

AVIATION
30/2326Z.

At 2300Z, there was no marine inversion or marine layer at KLAX.

Overall, high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Developing northerly flow will keep all sites VFR through the period. Timing of wind direction changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through TAF period. There is a 30-40% chance that gusty northwesterly cross winds will not develop in the 12Z-18Z time frame. No significant easterly winds are expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are anticipated through the period.

MARINE
30/143 PM.

For the waters along the Central Coast as well as the outer waters south to San Nicolas Island, moderate to high confidence in forecast. Winds across the outer waters have increased to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels and will continue to strengthen through the day. There is a 70-80% chance of Gale Force winds between late this afternoon and Friday night for the waters from Point Sal south to San Nicolas Island. Short- period hazardous seas of 8 to 11 feet are expected between late tonight and Friday. Winds and seas will diminish late Friday night into Saturday, but there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds continuing into Tuesday morning, especially for the waters south of Point Sal.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of widespread SCA conditions with steep, short- period, hazardous seas and gusty W-NW winds this afternoon/evening until winds and seas start to diminish Friday evening. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels between Saturday and Monday, except for a 40% percent chance of SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel through Saturday evening.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM PST Friday for zones 88-356-357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for zones 349-351-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Ventura
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Thu -- 12:00 AM PST     3.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:51 AM PST     2.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:07 AM PST     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:00 PM PST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ventura, California, Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Thu -- 12:23 AM PST     3.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:57 AM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:06 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:18 AM PST     5.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:08 PM PST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rincon Island, California, Tide feet

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