Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guadalupe, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...06/227 PM.

A dry (inside slider) low pressure system is impacting the region, resulting in a moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind event through Sunday. Offshore surface pressure gradients will combine with upper level support to drive winds at the surface. Winds will peak in strength and coverage on Saturday, when gusty northeasterly winds will occur across almost all of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, including portions of Catalina Island.
Warning level wind gusts (60 to 70 mph) are expected through Saturday across the Santa Susana Mountains and the San Gabriel Mountains (including the Highway 14 Corridor). Advisory level winds are expected elsewhere. On Sunday, the typical Santa Ana wind corridor will see Advisory Level winds will a 50% chance of reaching advisory level (gusts to 35 mph) across the LA Basin and San Gabriel Valley. The winds will likely cause hazardous driving conditions due to crosswinds and debris on the road, and downed trees and power lines. Please see the LAXNPWLOX product for additional details.

The offshore flow will yield significant warming trend for the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the coast and valleys (10 to 15 degrees above normal). On Sunday mid to upper 80s will be widespread across the coasts and valleys (12 to 18 degrees above normal). Calender day records are mostly in the 90s on Sunday, so it will be difficult but not impossible to break records. Minor to moderate heat impacts will be possible, mainly for outdoor workers and those without air condition. There is a small (20%) chance that Heat Advisories will be needed for Sunday across coasts and valleys of LA and Ventura Counties. Expect sunnies skies through the weekend and very dry humidity. Overnight temperatures will be lower than normal across wind sheltered areas.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...06/157 PM.

Tuesday will likely be the coolest day of the upcoming week.
Onshore flow will return to the region and coastal clouds will be possible during the morning. Expect highs to mostly be in the low 70s for most coast and valleys, though this will still be a few degrees above normal. On Wednesday, high pressure will start to build over the coastal waters to the east and offshore flow will redevelop from the north. This will yield a dramatic warming trend, bringing many valley area into the 80s. Late this week offshore flow is favored to continue and 500 mb heights will continue to build. By Thursday and Friday, another heat spell is expected to be underway with many temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Highs will be near calender day records, and we will continue to monitor the need for Heat Advisories. Rain is not expected for the foreseeable future, however there are indications that heat will continue well into next week through the middle of the month.

AVIATION
06/1712Z.

At 16Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

For 18Z TAF Package, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. Moderate confidence in wind forecast for KCMA, OXR, KBUR, and KVNY.

Light to occasionally moderate LLWS and turbulence is likely over and near mountainous terrain across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Most likely 07/06Z to 07/18Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. CAVU conditions are expected.
There is a 30% chance of N-NE cross winds reaching 20 kts after 07/14Z. Easterly wind component should remain below 8 kts thru 07/18Z. Then, a 30% chance thereafter.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period.
Moderate confidence in wind forecast. Light to occasionally moderate turbulence will be possible on approach and departure.

MARINE
06/222 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will linger through this evening. SCA level NE winds are likely across the far southern waters on Saturday (PZZ676). Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA for PZZ670/673. For Sunday, moderate chance of SCA winds south of Point Conception in the evening.
For Monday and Tuesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas with a 30% chance of GALE force winds.
Best chance across the far northern Outer Waters. SCA conditions will likely continue later into the week.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 30-50% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas. Good confidence in seas dropping well below SCA criteria by Wednesday, but similar chances for SCA winds will likely persist through the work week.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica, as well as the San Pedro Channel, during the late night through early afternoon hours while winds and seas remain near or below SCA levels elsewhere. Additionally, there is a moderate chance of GALE FORCE winds from Point Mugu to Malibu late tonight through Saturday morning. For Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for zones 87-366>368-381-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>374-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).