Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday December 5, 2019 1:56 PM PST (21:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:32PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 745 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Friday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
Today..SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 8 ft dominant period 13 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 13 seconds after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with possible gusts to 35 kt by mid morning. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Combined seas 9 to 11 ft dominant period 14 seconds, building to 11 to 12 ft dominant period 15 seconds after midnight. Showers.
Sat..S winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 11 to 13 ft dominant period 14 seconds. Showers likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds. Showers likely.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 8 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 745 Am Pst Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z or 7 am pst, a 979 mb low was 750 nm west of medford.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, CA
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location: 34.74, -121.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 052144 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 144 PM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. 05/1047 AM.

The next storm system will move over the region between Friday and Saturday. Showers could linger into Sunday, then high pressure aloft building in should bring a warming and drying trend into next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 05/128 PM.

Light southeast flow and ample low level moisture creating lots of clouds but the only precip so far has been over extreme western SB/SLO Counties and probably some isolated showers over the mtns. Otherwise dry with temps near to slightly below normal.

A very similar scenario Friday though models are a little less moist in the lower levels than today. May see a little more sunshine but still on the cool side. An upper low is spinning around near 40n/140w and will only move very slowly east through Saturday as it bumps into a weak upper ridge along the coast. We will see moisture increasing across the area Friday night with rain becoming increasingly likely across all of SLO/SB Counties. And by Saturday morning or afternoon light showers should reach most of LA County except possibly the Antelope Valley.

A second impulse will follow Sat night into Sunday morning maintaining a good chance of precip most areas through the weekend.

Since the upper low is expected to stay well to the north the impacts this far south are expected to be minimal and rain amounts and rates, except for the NW SLO hills, are expected to be on the light side. Most areas will total under an inch with rates typically less than .1"/hr. LA County will see the lowest amounts, generally a half inch or less. Once again this will be a high snow level event, hovering around 8000' Sat then lowering to between 6000-7000' Sun.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 05/144 PM.

The trough is expected to move east late Sunday and Monday with dry and warmer conditions early next week as a ridge of high pressure moves over the west coast.

The ridge will break down Wednesday as a weak trough approaches from the west. We'll likely see some clouds from it and a slight cool down but no precip.

Models now in near unanimous agreement on a very strong high pressure ridge developing over the eastern Pacific Thursday and expanding east through Saturday. This will maintain dry weather through the week and likely some warming, but nothing dramatic as gradients are only lightly offshore at most and 950mb temps stay below 20c.

AVIATION. 05/1638Z.

At 1630Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX. However, there was a deep moist layer up to 10000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. For sites north of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs this afternoon. For tonight, moderate confidence in development of MVFR CIGs after 03Z, but low confidence in timing.

For sites south of Point Conception, there is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z. No significant easterly wind component is anticipated.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of MVFR CIGs after 06Z.

MARINE. 05/128 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For PZZ670 and PZZ673, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level southeast winds and seas developing on Friday and continuing through Saturday with a 50% chance of Gale force gusts Friday afternoon and Friday night (GALE WATCH remains in effect). For Saturday night and Sunday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds continuing. For PZZ676, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds Friday through Saturday (especially Friday). For Saturday night and Sunday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level conditions.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds and seas developing Friday and continuing through Saturday with a 50% chance of Gale force winds on Friday (GALE WATCH will remain in effect). For Saturday through Tuesday, high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Overall, high confidence in conditions generally remaining below SCA levels. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level southeast winds Friday and Saturday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Strong rip currents and high surf are possible at area beaches over the weekend.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RAT SYNOPSIS . JLL

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46259 7 mi56 min 58°F6 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 23 mi36 min S 9.7 G 12 59°F 59°F1018.6 hPa53°F
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 36 mi56 min 60°F6 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 39 mi56 min SE 15 G 19 57°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.6)
HRVC1 41 mi56 min 65°F 1018.4 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 42 mi56 min 62°F5 ft
CPXC1 44 mi24 min S 5.1 G 7 57°F 1018.9 hPa55°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 44 mi56 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 57°F 58°F1019.5 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA42 mi2 hrsS 76.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F94%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVBG

Wind History from VBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S9S9SE5S4SE7SE7SE9SE10SE7SE6S9S5S6S6SE3S3SE6SE11SE11SE9S6S7S11
1 day agoSE6NW4Calm--SE4SE9------SE9SE19SE14SE13SE14SE13S12S14S10S8S7S7S8S11
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2 days agoS8SE9S9S8SE5SE10S6SE4E5SE5SE4E3SE3SE3CalmE4E4SE5SE6SE6--SE5SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.