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AMZ156 S Of Ocracoke Inlet To Cape Lookout Nc Out 20 Nm- 714 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Saturday...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon, then becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon, then increasing to a moderate chop.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to rough.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 714 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A warm front will lift through the area tonight with southerly winds quickly increasing overnight, but conditions improving on Saturday. Unsettled pattern then continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 020041 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 741 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front near the coast this afternoon will lift through the area tonight. Unsettled pattern then continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 730 PM Fri...A warm front continues to lift through Eastern NC this evening which is associated with a low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley.

It remains mostly dry this evening, but the atmospheric column continues to quickly saturate as evidenced by the latest MHX sounding showing a PWAT increase of 3/4" from this morning.
Additionally, an approaching southerly LLJ will result in strong low level theta-e advection later tonight which will prompt the development of increased shower activity. The greatest coverage and intensity will remain along and east of the US 17 corridor sufficient instability could produce a few thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. Further inland, lack of forcing will limit precip coverage through the early morning hours, but saturated boundary layer and modest diurnal cooling will result in lowering stratus, potentially building to the surface at times as fog, which could be locally dense.

Temperatures remain steady this evening and are even rising in some spots as WAA increases. Some limited cooling is possible overnight, but if this trend continues it will be a very mild December night with readings remaining in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 2 PM Fri...LLJ will shift over the OBX in the morning, then offshore by midday as we become firmly entrenched within the warm sector of complex low pressure developing across the Southeast. While ample deep moisture will remain in place (PWATs near 1.5 in), a lack of dominate forcing mechanism will likely limit the precip coverage, and little more than low end chance POPs are justified through the day with only modest instability in place. Overcast skies continue with temps climbing near 10 deg above normal given the strong low level WAA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 2 PM Friday...Several lows will move across NC during the long term and bring multiple chances for showers and some thunder.

Sunday...Heights fall on Sunday as the trough over the Plains draws closer and develops a double barrel low. Several surface lows will move across North Carolina and sustain Chance to Likely PoPs across the FA with a continued chance for thunder mainly east of HWY 17. Highs once again near 70.

Monday - Thursday...Two more mid-level troughs and surface cold fronts will traverse the area late Monday and Wednesday afternoon.
The highest PoPs associated with these FROPAs will be along the immediate coast with the majority of the coastal plain remaining dry. Winds will be gustier Wednesday (10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph)
as the strongest front of the period crosses ENC. High temps will progressively drop through the week (60s on Monday and low 50s by Thursday). The next chance for near or below freezing lows will be Wednesday and Thursday night.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Evening/...
As of 730 PM Fri...An extended period of sub-VFR conditions are expected tonight and into tomorrow as low level moisture increases behind a warm front.

VFR conditions will persist for another hour or two across most of the airspace before MVFR ceilings develop and slowly lower overnight. At the same time patchy fog is likely to develop first over the coastal plain and then spreading eastward by early tomorrow morning, and could become locally dense at times producing IFR/LIFR conditions. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible along the coastal plain west of US 17 by early tomorrow morning, and may spread as far east as KEWN and KOAJ, though confidence is lower in seeing prevailing IFR ceilings here.

A low level inversion and plenty of mid and high cloud cover will keep conditions steady state into mid tomorrow morning with IFR/LIFR conditions likely persisting. Eventually, conditions should improve to MVFR by late morning, and there is potential for some VFR conditions to return tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 1 PM Fri...Sub-VFR conditions are possible at several times during the long term due to continuous low pressure systems moving through the area. Chance to Likely rainfall will bring additional impacts Saturday night. After the ground becomes saturated, early morning fog will be more likely.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 730 PM Fri...There is potential for some marine fog to develop across coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds early tomorrow morning due to a highly saturated boundary layer and very similar water and air temps. There is potential for this fog to become locally dense, as well as a chance that not much fog materializes at all.

This evening, an approaching southerly LLJ will accelerate the warm front onshore, and breezy southerly winds will ensue. Winds will mainly be 15 to 20 kt through much of the night, with gusts to 25 kt mainly focused near the western wall of the Gulf Stream beyond 10-15 nm offshore near and south of Cape Hatteras.
LLJ pushes further offshore Saturday with SW winds trending more moderate in the morning through afternoon.

Southerly wind swell raises seas rapidly this evening, to 4 to 6 ft through the early morning hours. Then, conversely, seas fall quickly through the day Saturday as southerly windswell fades, back to 2-4 ft by late afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 2 PM Friday...Generally 10-20 kt winds out of the SSW with gusts nearing SCA by early Sunday morning. SCA conditions seem more likely later Monday and into Tuesday with NW winds 10-20 kt and 25+ kt gusts across zones south of Cape Hatteras.
Conditions improve Tuesday as winds back to the southwest (10-15 kt) and seas drop to 2-3 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.

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North River Bridge
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Fri -- 06:29 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:19 PM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Harkers Island Bridge
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Fri -- 05:52 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:02 PM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:53 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harkers Island Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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