Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Havelock, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:29PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:28 AM EST (16:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:09AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 926 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers late this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Havelock, NC
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location: 34.88, -76.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 241421 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 921 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure then builds in behind the front for the second half of the weekend. Fast moving low pressure may bring rain for Monday before high pressure builds back in through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 920 AM Friday . Low clouds and fog lingering inland but shld grad dissipate thru late morn. Adjusted init temps down a bit inland and up a bit coast. No other changes with patchy light shra drifting onshore currently with bit better cvrg spreading in from SW later today . bulk of rain will hold off til late tonight.

Prev disc . Patchy showers impacting mostly coastal and far southern portions of the CWA at daybreak. Clouds continue to increase across the region early this morning as precipitable water surges to over an inch by later today. Will continue with a small PoP during the early morning hours. PoPs increase to chance this afternoon as precipitation moves into the CWA from the west with cold front. Showers will be scattered late in the day as the bulk of the precipitation arrives after dark tonight. Strong WAA will lead to a very mild day with highs in the mid 60s in most areas, except lower 60s on the Outer Banks. Some lower clouds and patches of fog will be possible, especially early this morning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. As of 355 AM Friday . Good agreement amongst the short-range and high-resolution models showing line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning. Some moderate CAPE values are possible along the immediate coast in the vicinity of the front toward morning. Any thunderstorms that do form could be locally strong to severe, but the best instability and support for storms will remain just offshore. With deep moisture and precipitable water values around 1.25", will forecast categorical PoPs toward morning, with one-third to one-half inch of rain possible as the system passes. Gusty winds ahead of the front will hold minimum temperatures up in the low to mid 50s area-wide, with temperatures generally holding steady after a low around midnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 3 AM Fri . A strong cold front moves through the area Saturday morning, bringing a return to seasonably cool weather Sunday through the mid week period. Fast moving low pressure may bring some rain to the area on Monday before dry high pres builds through mid week.

Saturday . A cold front associated with stacked low pressure lifting from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeastern states will cross early Saturday morning. Strong prefrontal southerly LLJ (40+ kts) and WAA as a wave of low pressure developing within the front will lift across central NC toward the Mid- Atlantic coast. This low will provide kinematics necessary for some robust convection, if enough instability can be advected off the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Sfc flow will be SSE, so best chance of seeing a strong to marginally severe storm still appears to be Downeast Carteret through the srn OBX zones. Strong wind gusts are the main threats, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the slightly backed sfc flow providing some enhanced helicity. Areas further north and west should be stable enough to preclude thunderstorms, but some heavier embedded showers could still produce gusty winds. Dry and warm for Saturday following early morning showers with 60s for high temps.

Sunday . Deep layer subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place into mid week. High pressure building in from the southwest will generally be mild with quasi-zonal flow in place, and near normal temps expected with highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s.

Monday . 24/00Z global model suite now indicating a fast moving low pressure area embedded in a progressive shortwave may bring some -RA to the area, and have introduced rain chances for Mon. QPF amts look to be light, generally around a tenth of an inch or less. Because of the rain and clouds, knocked temps down a couple of degrees, mainly in the low 50s.

Tuesday through Thursday . A tricky fcst this period as flow will continue to be progressive with quasi zonal flow in place. Models and their respective ensembles hint at energy moving through the main flow which may spur cyclogenesis over the SE CONUS, but detailing when/if this will happen is difficult in this flow regime, and will only retain 20-30% pops this period. Temps will continue near climo, with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/ . As of 920 PM Friday . IFR/LIFR slow to lift inland but shld grad improve thru 18Z.

Prev disc . Mixed bag in aviation this morning with LIFR inland at KPGV and KISO at daybreak. Any LIFR ceilings should improve to VFR in the next couple of hours, before returning to MVFR/IFR by evening and through the overnight hours as precipitation moves in associated with cold front crossing the area.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 3 AM Fri . Return to VFR by 12-15Z Saturday behind the cold front, with VFR likely lasting through mid week with high pressure in control. There may be some sub VFR on Monday if light rain and clouds move into the area, but then VFR returns Monday night and through mid week.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 920 PM Friday . No changes with SE winds grad developing all wtrs today. E swell will keep seas elevated in 5 to 7 foot range today.

Prev disc . Winds continue NE/E at 10-15 knots at daybreak with gusts to 19 knots at Diamond Buoy and 30 miles southeast of New River Inlet. Seas are holding in the 5-7 foot range. Winds will gradually veer to ESE/SE later today and more S/SW tonight and increase to 15-25 knots, with some higher gusts, particularly over the central waters. Seas will build to as high as 9-10 feet over central and northern zones later tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all coastal waters with no major changes to the current marine forecast.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 3 AM Fri . Srly winds 20-30 kt continue early Sat for the ctrl/srn waters, then turn swrly and diminish during the day 5-15 kt with seas slowly subsiding, dropping below 6 ft by later Sat night into Sun morning. Generally good boating conditions return Sunday through mid week as 5-15 kt winds continue with seas no higher than 3-5 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 AM Fri . Low pressure moving from off the Southeast coast toward the central Atlantic could result in elevated tide levels on the ocean and near the inlets into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . RF/CTC/TL MARINE . RF/CTC/TL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 17 mi58 min NNE 4.1 G 7 59°F 49°F1022.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 27 mi88 min N 4.1 G 4.1 56°F 1022.9 hPa (+0.8)56°F
41159 46 mi58 min 65°F6 ft
41064 47 mi80 min SSE 14 G 19 68°F 65°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC3 mi34 minENE 610.00 miOvercast62°F52°F70%1022.5 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC15 mi91 minno data miOvercast58°F52°F81%1023.1 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC16 mi34 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F51°F75%1022.9 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC17 mi90 minNE 510.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE10NE10NE8NE10NE9NE9NE7NE7NE8NE3NE4N5N4N5N3N4N4NE3CalmNE4NE6NE4NE6
1 day agoN15
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N17N16NE15N11N11N14NE14N15N12N13N12NE13NE7N8N8N7N9N8N8N9N9N9NE9
2 days agoN16
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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM EST     1.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:06 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:19 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.50.91.21.31.31.20.90.50.2-0-0.1-00.20.50.811.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:08 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.3-0.20.20.71.41.92.22.21.91.50.90.4-0-0.2-0.10.30.81.31.71.71.61.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.